Looking for a themed restaurant business plan? You're in the right place.
A restaurant that sells an atmosphere has to answer questions a plain one never faces. What does the set cost, and who pays for it again in year four? How much of the check is the theme and how much is the food? What happens to the room when the novelty wears off? A blank template won't show you what a sensible answer looks like.
In this article we'll walk through a complete sample business plan for a 140-seat themed restaurant in Charlotte, North Carolina, section by section, from the executive summary and SWOT analysis to the full financials, so you can see how the pieces fit before you write your own.
Here's what you'll take away:
- The executive summary: see how to put a theme, a raise and a first-year loss on one page, so a reader knows what the money builds
- The SWOT analysis: learn how to name novelty fade as a weakness without sinking the case
- The start-up budget: find out how a themed build-out splits between ordinary construction and fabrication, and how large a cash reserve the opening months need
- The first year, month by month: see how four months of pre-opening carry are funded, which opening months lose money and where the summer lull falls
- The marketing plan: see what a new restaurant might spend to fill 140 seats and which channels carry party bookings
- Prime cost and the refresh reserve: understand how food, payroll and a recurring re-theming budget add up against revenue
- The downside case: have an answer ready for "what if traffic fades after year one?", with the steps the owners take
If you're planning a restaurant built around a theme, read this before you write your own. The restaurant is fictional, so keep what fits and change the rest.
In this plan
Want a themed restaurant business plan you can edit for your own business? Get the themed restaurant business plan template and build it in the Toolkit.
The Arena in Brief
Centurion Bistro is a 140-seat themed restaurant in Charlotte, North Carolina. Guests eat inside a Roman arena reimagined as a Mediterranean bistro: stone arches, torch-style lighting, mosaic floors and servers in costume. The kitchen cooks wood-fired flatbreads, grilled meats, mezze and pasta at family prices, and a 50-seat party room takes birthdays and team nights. It opens in January 2027. Dana Whitfield, the managing partner, and Rafael Moreno, the executive chef and partner, hold 60% of the company between them.
Funding totals $1,825,000, which is large for a restaurant because the plan pays for a fabricated set, four months of pre-opening carry and a reserve. The partners contribute $575,000 of their own savings, three local private investors $550,000, and a bank lends $700,000 if its approval comes through. Of the total, $710,000 goes to the shell and the fabricated set, $290,000 to the kitchen, dining room and technology, $35,000 to opening inventory, $409,000 to pre-opening payroll and rent, legal work, permits and the launch campaign, and $381,000 stays in the bank as the opening reserve.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2,883,612 | $3,248,620 | $3,627,429 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($467,390) | $42,955 | $143,321 |
| Closing cash | $424,097 | $535,914 | $622,859 |
Design and permit work run through summer 2026 and the lease is expected to be signed before the build starts. Construction, fabrication and training then fill the four months before opening, with rent and the managers on payroll and no guest in the building, and the doors open in January 2027. The four months of pre-opening carry are part of the $409,000 of start-up costs, so Year 1 holds twelve selling months and still closes at a loss of $467,390. EBITDA is positive from May. Year 2 is the first profitable year, at $42,955, and Year 3 carries a net margin of 4.0% before start-up costs. The schedule is tight, and the reserve covers about one month of delay in opening.
The theme is both the draw and the risk. The owners expect a themed room to fill on novelty and then fade unless something gives guests a reason to return, so the plan sets aside $300,000 over five years to refresh the room, books parties that do not depend on walk-in traffic, and tests a downside in which dine-in traffic opens 10% under plan and settles about 18% under from Year 2. In that case the owners respond from the seventh month: they cut their own pay, leave six posts unfilled and halve the refresh budget. The restaurant stays cash-positive and loses $61,220 in Year 2 before returning to profit in Year 3, and debt service cover falls to 1.09x in Year 2, which would need the bank's agreement on covenant timing.
The Company and Its Set
Legal name: Centurion Dining Group, LLC, a North Carolina limited liability company. Partners: Dana Whitfield (managing partner) and Rafael Moreno (executive chef), who hold 60% together; three investors hold 40%. Premises: about 5,400 square feet of leased space in a mixed-use district of the Charlotte metro area, on a ten-year lease with options. Seats: 140, of which 90 are in the main hall and bar and 50 in a private party room that opens for overflow dining when no party is booked. Opening: January 2027, after four months of construction, fabrication, hiring and training in the fall of 2026. Design and permit applications come first, and the lease is expected to be signed before the build starts.
The idea in one line
A family can sit down to a proper dinner in a room that feels like an event, at a check that does not need a special occasion to justify it.
The rooms and the menu
| Space or line | What it is | Year 1 share of revenue |
|---|---|---|
| The Forum (main hall) | Arches, mosaics and torch-style lighting, with a long communal table | seats the dine-in lines below |
| Food | Wood-fired flatbreads, grilled meats, mezze, pasta and a kids' menu, about $26.50 a guest | 64.1% |
| Beer and wine | A short Mediterranean-leaning list and local draft beer, about $6.80 a guest | 16.4% |
| Themed cocktails and house sodas | Named drinks served with some theater, plus house-made sodas for children | 10.4% |
| The Arena Room (party room) | Birthdays, team nights and school and club groups, $2,850 an event | 6.9% |
| The Armory (merchandise corner) | Shirts, mugs and prop pieces by the exit | 2.2% |
An original theme
Every name, character, costume and graphic in the room is the restaurant's own. The plan carries legal fees for trademark clearance before the signage is ordered, and the design brief excludes the names, logos and imagery of any film, series, game or restaurant franchise. A theme that borrows from a well-known property invites a letter and a rebuild.
Permits and the bar
A restaurant serving beer, wine and mixed drinks in North Carolina holds permits from the state's ABC Commission. The Commission's permit types page lists application fees of $400 each for malt beverage on-premises and unfortified wine on-premises permits and $1,000 for a mixed beverages restaurant permit. Eligibility, any food-sales test, local approvals and issue timing are separate questions that the plan does not quote, so it carries $14,000 for state permits, local licenses, the health permit and plan review as a planning figure, and the owners confirm the sequence with the Commission and counsel before signing the lease. If the mixed-beverage permit were late, the restaurant would open on beer, wine, house sodas and non-alcoholic specials. Themed cocktails and house sodas are 10.4% of revenue.
Dining Out in Charlotte
Why a theme can work here
The owners read Charlotte as a city of business travelers, weekend visitors and resident families spread across a metro area where most people drive to dinner. That mix suits a restaurant that sells an occasion: a table for eight with a birthday child, a department's team night, a visiting relative who has to be taken somewhere. The plan does not quote a market-size figure. Charlotte-area dining spend and visitor counts change by year and by source, and the owners would size the opportunity from published local data and their own reservation book.
How the evening is contested
| Alternative | What it offers | Why a family picks it | How Centurion Bistro differs by design |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casual-dining chains | Familiar menus and known prices | Predictability with children | A room that is itself the entertainment, and a party package with a named host |
| Chef-led neighborhood restaurants | Better plates, quieter rooms | A grown-up dinner | Plates built for sharing and a room where children are expected |
| Entertainment venues with food | Games, screens or lanes | Something to do besides eat | Entertainment included in the check rather than priced as a separate activity |
| Other themed or immersive rooms | Costumes, sets, shows | Novelty | A bistro-level kitchen and a refresh calendar meant to keep the room worth revisiting |
Rivals appear here by category only. Menus, prices and openings shift too quickly to quote.
The novelty problem
The owners' central worry is that the first year is the best one. A guest who comes for the set once may not come twice for the set alone, and the plan treats a year-two slide as possible rather than remote and tests it as the downside, not the base case. It answers in three ways. The kitchen carries a full bistro menu priced for repeat visits. The Arena Room sells parties and team nights, which bring in new groups every week. And the model books $300,000 across five years to rebuild parts of the room, with the largest single amount, $120,000, in Year 4. The downside case removes part of that spending and tests what is left.
SWOT
| Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|
| A distinctive room that photographs well and sells itself to children and party hosts | $270,000 of the raise is fabricated theme with little resale value |
| Party and team-night revenue booked ahead of the night | Costumed service adds training and turnover cost |
| A kitchen run by a chef partner, so food quality does not depend on the theme | Both partners are first-time owners |
| Opportunities | Threats |
|---|---|
| Corporate team nights and school and club groups on weeknights | Novelty fade after the first year |
| Seasonal chapters that give regulars a reason to return | Wage and rent pressure on a thin operating margin |
| Merchandise and gift cards as a small, high-margin side line | Alcohol permit delays or conditions that remove the cocktail list at opening |
Who Comes Through the Door
The family table
Parents with children under twelve, often with grandparents, usually on Friday evenings or weekend afternoons. They order flatbreads and mains to share, buy sodas and one adult drink each, and are the largest group by covers. The kids' menu and the show are what they came for.
The party host
A parent booking a birthday, a coach booking a team dinner or a club treasurer booking a year-end night. The host compares the Arena Room's flat $2,850 package, about $57 a person for 50 guests, with a bowling lane or a function room, and chooses on how little they have to organize.
The team night
An office or department with a budget and a calendar. These bookings come from a coordinator, are invoiced rather than paid on a card, and fill the weeknights that dine-in leaves empty.
The visitor and the night-out couple
Visitors found through a map listing or a hotel concierge, and couples or friends on the bar side after the family hours. They are a small share of covers and a larger share of the cocktail line.
What each of them is checking
Whether the table was held, whether the room looks like the photographs, whether a child with an allergy has something safe to eat, and whether the bill matches the menu.
Booking Parties, Filling Tables
How a booking works
Tables release on the restaurant's reservation platform up to 30 days ahead, with walk-ins held for the bar and a share of the hall. A party books through the events coordinator, who sends a menu, a date hold and a deposit request. The plan does not count deposits as early cash. Party guests are counted separately from the covers below.
Covers and capacity
| Covers | Per service night | Per seat | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 69,717 | about 223 | 498 |
| Year 3 | 82,000 | about 263 | 586 |
| Year 5 | 84,000 | about 269 | 600 |
Service runs Tuesday through Sunday, about 312 days a year, with lunch at weekends. The Arena Room is booked for about 92 parties in Year 3 and otherwise opens as overflow dining, so an average night turns the 140 seats about 1.9 times, or about 2.9 times if only the 90-seat hall were counted. Year 1 turns them about 1.6 times. Friday to Sunday are the heaviest nights and Tuesday and Wednesday the lightest. Each seat earns $25,910 in Year 3 and $28,290 in Year 5, lifted by the 3% price steps and the party line. For a casual room that is on the high side, and a lender would test it against the Year 3 check of $39.89 a cover.
Pricing
Food averages $26.50 a guest, beer and wine $6.80 and themed cocktails and sodas $4.30, a check of $37.60 in Year 1 before tips and sales tax. Prices step 3% each January. The check pays for a bistro menu and an evening's staging together, which is why it runs above a plain casual room. Guests pay sales tax on top, and the state revenue department's notice of March 2, 2026 puts the general rate in Mecklenburg County at 8.25% from July 1, 2026, up from 7.25%, after an additional 1% county rate. The plan does not model what that does to demand.
Parties and team nights
Seventy events in Year 1, rising to 80 in Year 2 and 92 in Year 3, are sold at $2,850 for about 50 guests. December alone holds 12. Year 3 party revenue is $278,168, 7.7% of the total, and the line has the least exposure to novelty fade because a host decides weeks ahead and the booking does not compete with other restaurants on the night.
The Opening Push
What the budget buys
Marketing in Year 1 totals $170,000, made up of $70,000 of launch work paid from start-up capital and $100,000 of running spend. That is 5.9% of Year 1 revenue, about $2.44 across 69,717 covers. Running spend then drops to $90,000 in Year 2 and $80,000 in Year 3, which is 2.2% of revenue and about $0.98 a cover. That is modest for a concept whose main risk is novelty fade and that must book 92 or more parties a year, and a lender may ask for more.
| Channel | Year 1 spend | What it is expected to do |
|---|---|---|
| Identity, website and booking engine (launch) | $14,000 | A site that takes party inquiries and table bookings directly |
| Photography and social video (launch) | $16,000 | The content that carries the theme to people who have never seen the room |
| Press and creator preview nights (launch) | $14,000 | Local writers and family creators fill the first two weeks |
| Opening-week events (launch) | $16,000 | Charity and neighbor nights that seed the first reservation book |
| Local mailer and signage (launch) | $10,000 | Households within a short drive of the building |
| Paid social and video | $24,000 | Short clips and retargeting to people who watched them |
| Party and corporate outreach | $20,000 | Sales collateral, tastings for office managers and school and club contacts |
| Creator and community nights | $18,000 | Hosted evenings that fill the room on weeknights |
| Hotel and visitor partnerships | $10,000 | Concierge cards and listings in visitor guides |
| Search, maps and review management | $8,000 | Showing up for searches such as "birthday party restaurant Charlotte" |
| Email and rewards club | $8,000 | A returning-guest list with seasonal offers |
| Local press and sponsorships | $6,000 | Youth teams and school events |
| Community and charity nights | $6,000 | Fundraiser evenings that bring new groups |
Marking the year
- January 2027: opening month with 3,132 covers and 2 parties.
- July and August 2027: the quietest months once the room has ramped, at about 5,900 and 5,800 covers.
- October 2027: 7,370 covers as the room reaches full volume.
- December 2027: 8,375 covers, 12 parties and $356,639 of revenue.
Running a Show Every Night
The building
The space is about 5,400 square feet. At the plan's rate of $34 a square foot a year, all in, rent is $184,000 in Year 1 and 5.3% of Year 3 revenue; a landlord's quote would replace the rate. Rent also runs during the four-month build-out, about $61,000 inside the pre-opening line. A ten-year lease with renewal options is the target, and consent for the exhaust work, the lighting rig and the signage is a condition of signing.
A service from open to close
Prep starts mid-morning and the wood-fired oven is lit by 3:00. Family meal is at 4:00, the floor is costumed and briefed by 4:30 and the doors open at 5:00. The party room runs its own schedule, with two hosts and a set running order. Weekend lunch uses the main hall only.
The cast
Servers, greeters and runners wear costumes designed for the room. Costumes are laundered on a weekly schedule and replaced every two years, at $11,000 in Year 1 and $19,000 by Year 5. Part-time greeters and servers are scheduled to the booking book rather than a fixed pattern, so hours follow covers.
Keeping the set alive
The refresh line holds $10,000 in Year 1, then $40,000, $60,000, $120,000 and $70,000. Year 2 and Year 3 money buys seasonal chapters: a winter menu and decor, a spring mural, a harvest-themed party package. Year 4 is a full redesign of one of the two rooms and a menu relaunch. Spending is expensed as it occurs. The partners agree the calendar at the start of each year against the booking book rather than the calendar date, and a fabrication contractor's maintenance contract covers the set itself at $8,000 in Year 1 and $22,000 to $26,000 after that. Refresh and maintenance together come to $405,000 over five years, 1.5 times the $270,000 cost of the original fabrication, which is the price of keeping a themed room worth revisiting.
Technology
The stack is a point-of-sale system, a reservation and party-booking platform that requests deposits, and a kitchen display. Software subscriptions cost $12,000 in Year 1, and booking and review platform fees are $6,000.
Compliance and insurance
- State ABC permits for the beer, wine and mixed-drink sales described earlier, plus responsible-service training for bar and floor staff.
- A county health permit and food-handler certificates for the kitchen.
- Liability, liquor liability and property insurance, $41,000 in Year 1 including key-person cover on both partners, with workers' compensation carried inside the payroll on-cost.
- Music and performance licensing for the soundtrack and any live performers, within the $7,000 licenses and dues line.
- Federal and North Carolina wage rules on tip credits, overtime and exempt salaries. The North Carolina Department of Labor's overtime page gives $7.25 an hour as the tipped-employee total, a $2.13 cash wage with tips making up the rest, and $684 a workweek as the salary test for exempt staff. Servers here are paid above the tipped floor, salaried managers above the salary test, and a payroll provider confirms the rules before any offer goes out.
Suppliers
Two broadline food distributors, a flatbread and bread baker, a local meat purveyor, a beer distributor and a wine importer. The largest supplier supplies under a fifth of direct costs.
The Partners and the Crew
Dana Whitfield, managing partner
Dana has fourteen years in restaurant operations, the last six as general manager of a high-volume family restaurant in the Charlotte area. She runs the floor, the party book, hiring and the budget, on a $92,000 salary, paid through the four pre-opening months.
Rafael Moreno, executive chef and partner
Rafael has sixteen years in kitchens, nine of them on Mediterranean and wood-fired menus. He writes the menu, the purchasing lists and the prep schedules, and holds the other partner share. His $86,000 salary also runs through the four pre-opening months.
Where the team is thin
Neither partner has launched a restaurant as an owner, and theme design is outside both of their records. Three outside hires cover the gaps: a restaurant accountant on monthly retainer, a part-time operations adviser for the first year (both sit in the $34,000 Year 1 professional-fees line), and a design and fabrication contractor whose contract includes maintenance visits and the refresh calendar.
If one partner is out
For short absences the sous chef leads the kitchen and the floor manager runs the hall. Key-person insurance on both partners is in the insurance budget.
Ownership and the lender
The partners own 60% of Centurion Dining Group, LLC and the three investors own 40%. The lender would expect personal guarantees from both partners, security over the equipment and quarterly management accounts. Fabricated scenery in leased space has little recovery value for a lender, which is part of the reason equity makes up 61.6% of the raise. The lease terms, including base rent, any tenant allowance and a personal guarantee, are the other item a lender would ask to see first.
What a lender would still ask
- The lease: base rent, how the common-area and tax charges are split, any tenant allowance (none is counted), the term and who signs the guaranty. Rent here is a planning figure of $34 a square foot, all in.
- A contractor's bid and a schedule for the four-month build. The plan's figures of about $82 a square foot for the build, $50 for the set and $131 overall may be low for a new kitchen, bar, restrooms and party room, so bids replace them. The 10% contingency is the only cover in the $440,000, and a 15% overrun beyond it lowers the April low point by about $66,000. The lender would want the set's warranty and maintenance terms in writing.
- Evidence for 223 to 263 covers a night, and for Friday and Saturday nights of 350 to 400 on a kitchen that counts about 32 cook shifts a week: the trade area, comparable family rooms and pre-bookings for the party room.
- Whether the mixed-beverage permit, with any food-sales test and local approval, is in hand before the lease is signed, and how a late permit changes the opening.
- The schedule. Permit applications ahead of the lease and a four-month build with fabrication are tight, and the reserve covers about one month of delay. Two months overdraw it by about $130,000 in the engine's view.
- Why the check is $37.60 to $39.89 and how it compares with other family rooms in the area.
- The size and source of the partners' $575,000 and the terms of any guaranty from the investors.
- What the owners do if debt service cover falls below 1.25x. In the downside it is 0.61x in Year 1 and 1.09x in Year 2, and the plan's ask is covenant testing from Year 3. If principal starts around September 2027, base-case Year 1 cover is about 1.6x, not 2.0x.
- The effect of dearer food, higher wages, higher rent or fewer covers. The financial section runs each of them.
Numbers behind the arena
One model feeds every table in this part of the plan, monthly for 2027 and yearly beyond. Design drawings and permit applications run through summer 2026, the lease is expected to be signed before the build starts, and construction, fabrication, hiring and training then fill the four months before the doors open. That schedule is tight for a themed room with a wood-fired oven, a hood and an alcohol permit to obtain. The model starts on the day the doors open in January 2027, so the four months of pre-opening payroll, rent, utilities, insurance and loan interest sit in the start-up uses, and Year 1 holds twelve selling months. Guest counts, checks and party bookings come first so each revenue line can be traced to a person or an event.
Building the set: uses and sources
| Use of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Build-out of a second-generation restaurant shell: kitchen shell work, bar, restrooms, party room and a 10% contingency (no landlord allowance is modeled) | $440,000 |
| Theme fabrication: sculpted facades, columns and murals, mosaic floors, lighting rigs, sound and the merchandise corner fixtures | $270,000 |
| Kitchen: wood-fired oven, grill, fryers, walk-ins, hood tie-in and dish pit | $165,000 |
| Dining room and bar: tables, chairs, banquettes, bar back, glassware and smallwares | $85,000 |
| Point of sale, reservations and party-booking software, audio-visual and security | $40,000 |
| Opening food, beer, wine and merchandise stock | $35,000 |
| Legal and accounting: lease, entity, investor round, loan, trademark clearance and permit applications | $30,000 |
| State alcohol permits, local licenses, health permit and plan review (planning figure; costs and eligibility vary) | $14,000 |
| Pre-opening, four months before the doors open: partners and department heads on payroll, hourly training shifts and menu testing | $195,000 |
| Pre-opening: rent during the build-out, utilities, builder's-risk insurance and interest on the loan draws | $100,000 |
| Launch: identity, website, social video, press and influencer nights, opening-week events and a local mailer | $70,000 |
| Cash reserve for the opening ramp, the first slow summer and a late opening | $381,000 |
| Total uses | $1,825,000 |
| Source of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Dana Whitfield and Rafael Moreno: personal savings (no borrowed money in the contribution) | $575,000 |
| Three local private investors (minority equity) | $550,000 |
| Bank term loan (SBA-guaranteed, subject to approval) | $700,000 |
| Total sources | $1,825,000 |
Equity is $1,125,000, or 61.6% of the $1,825,000 total: $575,000 of the partners' own savings, with no borrowed money in it, and $550,000 from three local investors, who receive 40% of the company. The remaining $700,000, 38.4%, is a bank loan over ten years, priced at 9.5% as a planning figure for whatever rate a lender sets. The SBA's 7(a) page lists maturities of 10 years or less for loans of this kind; whether a guarantee is used, and its fees, rest with the lender and are left out here. The model keeps the loan interest-only for the first twelve months of the model. A loan drawn in the fall of 2026 would more likely start repaying principal around September 2027, which would put Year 1 debt service cover at about 1.6x instead of 2.0x. Construction runs $440,000 including a 10% contingency, about $82 a square foot, with no tenant allowance counted from the landlord. The fabricated set adds $270,000, about $50 a square foot, which brings the physical build to about $131 a square foot. These are the plan's figures, and they may be low for a new kitchen, bar, restrooms and party room, so the owners test them against contractors' bids before signing and a lender would do the same. Kitchen, dining room, bar, point-of-sale and audio-visual equipment total $290,000, and opening inventory is $35,000. Start-up costs are $409,000: $295,000 of pre-opening payroll and training, rent, utilities, insurance and construction-period loan interest, and $114,000 of legal work, permits and the launch campaign. The last $381,000 stays as cash. The model books the build-out and the loan draws at the start of January 2027, while the build actually runs in the fall of 2026, so the interest on the draws during those four months is estimated inside the pre-opening line. The reserve is sized to the opening: January to April lose $158,157 before interest and depreciation, and the lowest month-end balance falls in April, at about $165,000 after netting out the 5 days guests take to pay. A one-month slip in opening, with every cost still running, takes the lowest balance to about $28,000 in June. A two-month slip overdraws it by about $130,000 in August, so the reserve carries about one month of delay, and a longer one would need the landlord to defer rent, the bank to agree a further draw or the investors to add equity. A 15% construction overrun beyond the contingency, or $66,000, lowers the April low point from $165,000 to about $99,000.
Covers, checks and costs behind each line
- The covers baseline is 6,700 a month at a seasonal index of 1.0, scaled by a curve of 0.85 in January and February, 0.95 in March, 1.00 in April, 1.05 in May, 1.00 in June, 0.95 in July, 0.90 in August, 1.00 in September, 1.10 in October, 1.05 in November and 1.25 in December, when holiday parties arrive. A ramp then scales the first year, from 55% of baseline volume in January to 100% from October. The result is 69,717 covers in Year 1 and then 76,000, 82,000, 83,000 and 84,000. Party guests are counted separately and are not in these figures. Service runs Tuesday through Sunday, about 312 days, so Year 1 averages 223 covers a night and Year 3 averages 263.
- Capacity is 140 seats: 90 in the hall and bar and 50 in the Arena Room. The party room is booked for about 92 parties a year in Year 3 and opens as overflow dining at weekends when no party is booked, so dine-in can use all 140 seats on most busy nights. Year 3 works out at 1.9 turns of 140 seats, or 2.9 turns of the 90-seat hall if the party room were never used for dining. A family table with a children's menu stays 60 to 90 minutes, so 2.9 turns on the hall alone would be too many, which is why the overflow use matters.
- One cover is one guest. Each guest spends an average of $26.50 on food, $6.80 on beer and wine and $4.30 on themed cocktails and house sodas, so the Year 1 check is $37.60 and the Year 3 check $39.89 after a 3% price step each January from Year 2. These are planning figures. The check pays for a bistro menu and the show together, which is why it sits above a plain casual room, and a lender would test it against the checks of other family restaurants nearby. Families buy sodas and food and adults buy most of the alcohol, so the drink figures are blends across every guest. Gratuities belong to staff, and the sales tax guests pay on top of the check is left out of revenue.
- A party or team night is priced at $2,850 for about 50 guests, roughly $57 a person for a food package, one drink, room hire and a costumed host. Year 1 books 70 from January, 12 of them in December, followed by 80, 92, 96 and 100. Customer deposits are not treated as early cash.
- The merchandise corner sells $0.90 a cover, which means roughly 8 guests in 100 buy an item averaging about $11. Direct costs run at 29% of food, 28% of beer and wine, 20% of cocktails and sodas, 33% of party packages and 50% of merchandise, a blended 28.6% of revenue. The model applies the Year 1 blend to every year, so each line's own percentage holds only in Year 1. The beer and wine figure is a blend of draft beer and bottle wine, and wine on its own often costs more, which is why a 2-point rise in direct costs is one of the sensitivities below.
- On-costs add 27% to wages, or 15% for part-time staff, for payroll taxes, health cover, workers' compensation and paid time off. Year 1 has 17 full-time roles and 28 part-time people, 45 in all and 31 full-time equivalents with each part-time person counted as half. Headcount reaches 46 in Year 2 and 47 in Year 3, about 32.5 full-time equivalents. The floor plan counts about 56 server shifts a week (four full-time servers at five shifts and twelve part-time servers at about three). The need is about 53: an average night of 263 covers at roughly 35 covers a server shift, with runners and bussers carrying plates, is 7.5 servers over six nights, or about 45 shifts, plus about 8 for weekend lunch. Both figures are planning numbers. The kitchen line counts about 32 cook shifts a week at opening: the executive chef, the sous chef, three line cooks, a prep cook and a part-time weekend line cook, then about 37 once a fourth line cook starts in month 18, with a full-time steward and three part-time dish and prep shifts behind them. Friday and Saturday nights at 350 to 400 covers are the thin shifts for a wood-fired oven, grill, pasta and mezze menu, and a second weekend cook would add about $23,000 a year with on-costs. A costumed server carries a cash wage of $22,000 full time (about $10.60 an hour at 2,080 hours) and $11,000 part time, with tips on top that belong to the staff and are not a cost in the model. The North Carolina Department of Labor's overtime page uses a tipped cash wage of $2.13 an hour, with tips bringing the total to at least $7.25, and its salary test of $684 a workweek, or $35,568 a year; the salaried managers here are paid $48,000 to $92,000. A payroll provider confirms the tipped-wage and exempt-salary rules before offers go out. Pay raises of 3% a year form their own line from Year 2. The partners' own pay, $226,060 with on-costs, sits inside payroll.
- Year 1 rent is $184,000 for roughly 5,400 square feet at a planning rate of $34 a square foot, all in, rising to $206,000 in Year 5, and 5.3% of revenue in Year 3. Four months of rent during the build-out, about $61,000, are in the pre-opening line. Utilities are $48,000 because the lighting rig and sound system run every service. Insurance of $41,000 includes liquor liability and key-person cover on both partners. Card fees run at about 2.9% of revenue because they apply to the tip and the tax on the card total as well as the check; the actual rate depends on the processor and the card mix.
- Marketing is $100,000 in Year 1 on top of the $70,000 launch, then $90,000, $80,000, $80,000 and $84,000. Year 3 is 2.2% of revenue and about $0.98 a cover. That is modest for a concept whose central risk is novelty fade and that must book 92 to 100 parties a year, and a lender may ask for more or for evidence that the party pipeline fills at this spend. Professional fees are $34,000 in Year 1, made up of an accountant on retainer at about $14,000, an operations adviser for the first year at about $12,000 and legal and compliance work at about $8,000. They fall to $26,000 in Year 2 and $24,000 to $25,000 after that, once the adviser has gone. All are planning figures.
- The re-theming reserve is $10,000, $40,000, $60,000, $120,000 and $70,000 across Years 1 to 5, $300,000 in all. The Year 4 figure pays for a new chapter of murals, set pieces, costumes and a relaunched menu, roughly one full redesign of one of the two rooms every four years with seasonal chapters in between. It is expensed when spent. Costume cleaning and replacement is a separate $11,000 to $19,000 a year, and the fabrication contractor's maintenance contract is $8,000 in Year 1 and $22,000 to $26,000 after that. Refresh and maintenance together total $405,000 over five years, 1.5 times the $270,000 cost of the original fabrication.
- Guests and corporate clients take about 5 days to pay, because card settlement is fast and team nights are invoiced on short terms, and suppliers allow about 18 days. Inventory is the opening $35,000 plus 0.8% of sales, which comes to $58,069 at the end of Year 1.
- The model taxes profit at 21% federal and 2.0% for North Carolina. The federal rate is set by 26 U.S.C. 11(b), and the state revenue department lists 2.25% for 2025 and 2.00% for 2026, so later years hold at 2.0% until a CPA confirms the schedule. An LLC taxed as a pass-through would move this tax to the owners. The Year 1 loss of $58,390 before start-up costs carries forward and absorbs all of Year 2's profit, so Year 2 tax is $0, and the remaining $15,435 offsets Year 3. The model's tax base leaves out the $409,000 of start-up costs and does not apply the federal 80% limit on using carried-forward losses; how the start-up costs are deducted or amortized is a question for the CPA.
- Distributions of $120,000, $130,000 and $200,000 in Years 3 to 5 come only out of cash left after loan repayments. That is $450,000 against $486,264 of net income over the three years, and each year's distribution stays below that year's net income. The retained-earnings deficit left by the start-up costs shrinks from Year 2 as profit builds. The loan follows its ten-year schedule, with $460,271 outstanding at the end of Year 5 and no balloon.
Revenue by line
| Revenue stream | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food (dine-in) | $1,847,504 | $2,074,420 | $2,305,336 | $2,403,453 | $2,505,383 |
| Beer and wine | $474,075 | $532,304 | $591,558 | $616,735 | $642,891 |
| Themed cocktails and house sodas | $299,786 | $336,604 | $374,073 | $389,994 | $406,534 |
| Parties and team nights | $199,500 | $234,840 | $278,168 | $298,970 | $320,770 |
| Merchandise corner | $62,747 | $70,452 | $78,294 | $81,627 | $85,088 |
| Total revenue | $2,883,612 | $3,248,620 | $3,627,429 | $3,790,779 | $3,960,666 |
| Growth on prior year | – | 13% | 12% | 5% | 4% |
Food brings in 64.1% of Year 1 revenue, beer, wine and cocktails 26.8%, parties 6.9% and merchandise 2.2%. By Year 3 parties rise to 7.7% and the dine-in lines slip to 90.2%. Growth of 13% in Year 2 comes from the ramp finishing and the 3% price step, since Year 1 averages about 87% of mature volume. Parties are the line the owners can grow on purpose, because they fill a hall that stands empty on weeknights, book weeks ahead and bring in people who have never walked past the door. Merchandise stays small and mainly carries the brand out of the building.
Month by month in 2027
| Month | Food (dine-in) | Beer and wine | Themed cocktails and house sodas | Parties and team nights | Merchandise corner | Total revenue | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2027 | $82,998 | $21,298 | $13,468 | $5,700 | $2,819 | $126,283 | ($70,416) |
| Feb 2027 | $96,593 | $24,786 | $15,674 | $8,550 | $3,281 | $148,884 | ($54,287) |
| Mar 2027 | $121,450 | $31,164 | $19,707 | $11,400 | $4,125 | $187,846 | ($26,481) |
| Apr 2027 | $140,265 | $35,992 | $22,760 | $11,400 | $4,764 | $215,181 | ($6,973) |
| May 2027 | $158,470 | $40,664 | $25,714 | $14,250 | $5,382 | $244,480 | $13,937 |
| Jun 2027 | $159,795 | $41,004 | $25,929 | $14,250 | $5,427 | $246,405 | $15,310 |
| Jul 2027 | $156,854 | $40,249 | $25,452 | $14,250 | $5,327 | $242,132 | $12,261 |
| Aug 2027 | $153,409 | $39,365 | $24,893 | $17,100 | $5,210 | $239,977 | $10,723 |
| Sep 2027 | $173,999 | $44,649 | $28,234 | $19,950 | $5,909 | $272,741 | $34,105 |
| Oct 2027 | $195,305 | $50,116 | $31,691 | $22,800 | $6,633 | $306,545 | $58,230 |
| Nov 2027 | $186,428 | $47,838 | $30,251 | $25,650 | $6,332 | $296,499 | $51,061 |
| Dec 2027 | $221,938 | $56,950 | $36,013 | $34,200 | $7,538 | $356,639 | $93,980 |
Sales open at $126,283 in January and EBITDA is negative from January to April, at ($70,416), ($54,287), ($26,481) and ($6,973), because the ramp holds covers at 55% to 79% of mature volume while rent, salaries and the rest of the cost base run in full. EBITDA turns positive in May at $13,937 and peaks at $93,980 in December, when 12 parties and holiday bookings lift revenue to $356,639. July and August are the softest summer months, at about $242,000 and $240,000, because school is out and the owners expect hot-weather lulls. The eight months from May to December earn $289,607 of EBITDA, against $158,157 lost from January to April. After about $10,300 a month of depreciation, the summer months are close to break-even at the operating line. The monthly view spreads each year's annual costs evenly across the months, so the early months are approximate, but the year's total is not. The lowest month-end cash balance is in April, about $201,000 on the engine's cash line and $165,000 after netting out the 5 days guests and corporate clients take to pay.
Kitchen, floor and party crew
| Role | Annual wage | Starts | Year 1 end | Year 2 end | Year 3 end | Year 4 end | Year 5 end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General manager and managing partner (Dana Whitfield) | $92,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Executive chef and partner (Rafael Moreno) | $86,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sous chef | $54,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Floor manager | $54,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bar manager | $48,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Events and party coordinator | $48,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Line cook A | $40,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Line cook B | $40,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Line cook C | $40,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Prep cook | $36,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dish and kitchen steward | $32,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Costumed server A (full time) | $22,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Costumed server B (full time) | $22,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Costumed server C (full time) | $22,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Costumed server D (full time) | $22,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bartender A (full time) | $28,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bartender B (full time) | $28,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Costumed server E (part time) | $11,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Costumed server F (part time) | $11,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Costumed server G (part time) | $11,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Costumed server H (part time) | $11,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Costumed server I (part time) | $11,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Costumed server J (part time) | $11,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Costumed server K (part time) | $11,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Costumed server L (part time) | $11,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Costumed server M (part time) | $11,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Costumed server N (part time) | $11,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Costumed server O (part time) | $11,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Costumed server P (part time) | $11,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Greeter A (part time) | $12,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Greeter B (part time) | $12,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Greeter C (part time) | $12,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Runner and busser A (part time) | $12,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Runner and busser B (part time) | $12,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Runner and busser C (part time) | $12,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Runner and busser D (part time) | $12,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Runner and busser E (part time) | $12,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Dish and prep cover A (part time) | $15,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Dish and prep cover B (part time) | $15,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Dish and prep cover C (part time) | $15,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Party host A (part time) | $9,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Party host B (part time) | $9,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Weekend line cook (part time) | $20,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Bartender C (part time) | $14,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Merchandise corner clerk (part time) | $13,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Line cook D | $38,000 | Month 18 | – | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Marketing and community coordinator (part time) | $26,000 | Month 26 | – | – | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Total payroll incl. on-costs | $1,295,480 | $1,323,632 | $1,371,148 | $1,373,640 | $1,373,640 |
The table counts months from the opening in January 2027, so every opening-day role shows month 1. The partners, the sous chef, the floor and bar managers and the events coordinator are on payroll for the four months before that, and hourly staff are trained in December; those costs are the $195,000 pre-opening payroll line in the start-up uses. A fourth line cook follows in month 18, once a full year shows what the kitchen carries, and a part-time marketing coordinator arrives in month 26. That is 45 people at the end of Year 1, 46 at the end of Year 2 and 47 from Year 3, with no later hires. Both partners draw the salaries shown, so profit is what remains after they are paid.
Profit and loss
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2,883,612 | $3,248,620 | $3,627,429 | $3,790,779 | $3,960,666 |
| Direct costs (food, beer, wine, cocktails and merchandise) | ($825,683) | ($930,198) | ($1,038,665) | ($1,085,438) | ($1,134,083) |
| Gross profit | $2,057,929 | $2,318,422 | $2,588,764 | $2,705,341 | $2,826,583 |
| Payroll incl. on-costs | ($1,295,480) | ($1,323,632) | ($1,371,148) | ($1,373,640) | ($1,373,640) |
| Rent | ($184,000) | ($189,000) | ($194,000) | ($200,000) | ($206,000) |
| Utilities | ($48,000) | ($50,000) | ($51,000) | ($53,000) | ($55,000) |
| Marketing | ($100,000) | ($90,000) | ($80,000) | ($80,000) | ($84,000) |
| Insurance | ($41,000) | ($43,000) | ($44,000) | ($45,000) | ($46,000) |
| Professional fees | ($34,000) | ($26,000) | ($24,000) | ($24,000) | ($25,000) |
| Software subscriptions | ($12,000) | ($12,500) | ($13,000) | ($13,500) | ($14,000) |
| Card processing fees | ($84,000) | ($94,000) | ($105,000) | ($110,000) | ($115,000) |
| Theme refresh and re-theming reserve (set pieces, lighting, murals, seasonal menu relaunch) | ($10,000) | ($40,000) | ($60,000) | ($120,000) | ($70,000) |
| Costumes, cleaning and replacement | ($11,000) | ($16,000) | ($17,000) | ($18,000) | ($19,000) |
| Live performers and event entertainment | ($12,000) | ($20,000) | ($22,000) | ($23,000) | ($24,000) |
| Linen, uniforms and cleaning | ($18,000) | ($24,000) | ($26,000) | ($27,000) | ($28,000) |
| Repairs, hood cleaning and equipment service | ($8,000) | ($14,000) | ($20,000) | ($24,000) | ($27,000) |
| Smallwares, paper goods and party supplies | ($14,000) | ($20,000) | ($22,000) | ($23,000) | ($24,000) |
| Licenses, permits, music licensing and dues | ($7,000) | ($8,000) | ($8,500) | ($8,800) | ($9,000) |
| Waste hauling, grease trap and pest control | ($5,500) | ($7,000) | ($7,500) | ($7,800) | ($8,000) |
| Staff meals and training | ($9,000) | ($12,000) | ($13,000) | ($13,500) | ($14,000) |
| Theme maintenance contract and set repairs | ($8,000) | ($22,000) | ($24,000) | ($25,000) | ($26,000) |
| Reservation, booking and review platform fees | ($6,000) | ($8,000) | ($8,500) | ($9,000) | ($9,500) |
| Night cleaning and janitorial | ($18,000) | ($26,000) | ($28,000) | ($29,000) | ($30,000) |
| Bad debt and event refunds | ($1,500) | ($3,000) | ($3,500) | ($3,600) | ($3,700) |
| Annual pay raises (3% a year) | $0 | ($39,709) | ($83,503) | ($127,374) | ($172,404) |
| EBITDA | $131,449 | $230,581 | $363,113 | $347,127 | $443,339 |
| Depreciation | ($123,339) | ($123,339) | ($123,339) | ($123,339) | ($123,339) |
| Interest | ($66,500) | ($64,287) | ($59,155) | ($53,513) | ($47,311) |
| Income tax | $0 | $0 | ($37,299) | ($38,448) | ($61,573) |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($58,390) | $42,955 | $143,321 | $131,827 | $211,116 |
| Start-up costs expensed before opening (pre-opening payroll and rent, legal, permits and launch marketing) | ($409,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($467,390) | $42,955 | $143,321 | $131,827 | $211,116 |
Year 1 loses $58,390 before start-up costs and $467,390 after the $409,000 spent ahead of opening. EBITDA is $131,449 in Year 1, then $230,581, $363,113, $347,127 and $443,339, which is margins of 4.6%, 7.1%, 10.0%, 9.2% and 11.2%. The Year 4 dip comes from the re-theming line rising by $60,000, from $60,000 to $120,000, and from $43,871 more in pay raises, partly offset by revenue growth. Net income is $42,955 in Year 2, $143,321 in Year 3 and $211,116 in Year 5, or 1.3%, 4.0% and 5.3% of revenue. Pay raises add $172,404 to the cost base by Year 5. Margins near 10% from Year 3 reflect a floor staffed to cover 263 covers a night with the partners' pay inside payroll, and the cost lines above them, not the revenue line, are what a lender would probe. Year 2 is thin: a 5% revenue shortfall turns it into a loss.
Cash movements
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | ($400,903) | $163,529 | $263,789 | $253,928 | $333,168 |
| Theme build-out, kitchen and dining room | ($1,000,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Funding received | $1,825,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Loan principal repaid | $0 | ($51,712) | ($56,844) | ($62,486) | ($68,687) |
| Owner distributions | $0 | $0 | ($120,000) | ($130,000) | ($200,000) |
| Net change in cash | $424,097 | $111,817 | $86,945 | $61,443 | $64,480 |
| Closing cash | $424,097 | $535,914 | $622,859 | $684,302 | $748,782 |
Year 1 closes with $424,097 in the bank after $1,000,000 of build-out and equipment. Operations absorb $400,903, almost all of it the $409,000 of start-up costs paid at funding, and no loan principal is due yet. The balance is $535,914 in Year 2 and $622,859 in Year 3, then reaches $748,782 in Year 5 after distributions of $120,000, $130,000 and $200,000 and principal payments of $51,712 to $68,687 a year. The Year 5 balance is about 2.6 months of operating costs and sits against $460,271 still owed on the loan, which a lender may ask the owners to use for prepayment before distributions rise.
Balance sheet
| At year end | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $424,097 | $535,914 | $622,859 | $684,302 | $748,782 |
| Accounts receivable | $39,502 | $44,502 | $49,691 | $51,928 | $54,256 |
| Food, beverage and merchandise stock | $58,069 | $60,989 | $64,019 | $65,326 | $66,685 |
| Theme build-out, kitchen and dining room (net) | $876,661 | $753,321 | $629,982 | $506,643 | $383,304 |
| Total assets | $1,398,328 | $1,394,726 | $1,366,552 | $1,308,199 | $1,253,027 |
| Supplier payables (food purveyors, beer and wine distributors) | $40,719 | $45,873 | $51,222 | $53,528 | $55,927 |
| Bank term loan | $700,000 | $648,288 | $591,444 | $528,958 | $460,271 |
| Paid-in capital | $1,125,000 | $1,125,000 | $1,125,000 | $1,125,000 | $1,125,000 |
| Retained earnings | ($467,390) | ($424,435) | ($401,114) | ($399,287) | ($388,172) |
| Total liabilities and equity | $1,398,328 | $1,394,726 | $1,366,552 | $1,308,199 | $1,253,027 |
Prime cost, break-even and debt cover
| Measure | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin | 4.6% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 11.2% |
| Net margin (before start-up costs) | -2.0% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% |
| Payroll incl. pay raises as share of revenue | 45% | 42% | 40% | 40% | 39% |
| Revenue per full-time equivalent at year end | $93,020 | $101,519 | $111,613 | $116,639 | $121,867 |
| Average monthly revenue | $240,301 | $270,718 | $302,286 | $315,898 | $330,056 |
| Monthly revenue needed to cover operating costs | $224,952 | $243,794 | $259,886 | $275,365 | $278,287 |
| Debt service cover (EBITDA / interest + principal) | 2.0x | 2.0x | 3.1x | 3.0x | 3.8x |
Prime cost, which is direct costs plus payroll and pay raises, is 73.6% of revenue in Year 1 while the room ramps, then 70.6% in Year 2, 68.7% in Year 3 and 67.7% in Year 5. The partners' pay, $226,060 a year with on-costs before raises and about $239,800 in Year 3 after them, is 6.6% of Year 3 revenue. The owners' target is a staff-only prime cost of about 65% with the partners' pay excluded, and on that basis the plan runs at 65.7% in Year 1, 63.4% in Year 2, 62.1% in Year 3 and 61.2% in Year 5. In Year 1 the room needs roughly $224,952 a month to cover operating costs and averages $240,301, a margin of safety of 6%, so EBITDA is positive and the loss comes from depreciation of $123,339, interest of $66,500 and the start-up costs. In Year 3 it needs $259,886 against an average of $302,286, a margin of safety of about 14%. Revenue per full-time equivalent is $111,613 in Year 3 with part-time people counted as half, and $77,179 per person on payroll. Debt service cover is 2.0x in Year 1 with the loan interest-only, 2.0x in Year 2 when principal starts, and about 3x or better after that.
If the novelty fades after the first year
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2,588,980 | $2,693,020 | $3,008,263 | $3,144,365 | $3,285,925 |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($149,160) | ($61,220) | $40,509 | $33,152 | $99,502 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($558,160) | ($61,220) | $40,509 | $33,152 | $99,502 |
| Closing cash | $335,494 | $345,111 | $409,718 | $462,689 | $545,766 |
The shortfall builds over the first two years. Dine-in revenue opens 10% under plan, as a novelty-driven first year undershoots, and settles about 18% under plan from Year 2 as the first wave of visitors does not return. Parties fall 10% in every year because hosts book them weeks ahead, and merchandise is 20% under. Total revenue is $2,693,020 in Year 2 against $3,248,620 in the base case. The owners read six months of trading before they respond, so every response starts in month 7. From July 2027 Dana and Rafael each take 20% less, one full-time server, one line cook and four part-time shifts are not replaced, and the discretionary lines (marketing, utilities, staff meals, linen, costumes, smallwares, repairs, waste hauling and night cleaning) are trimmed at half effect for the rest of Year 1 and in full from Year 2. The re-theming budget is halved from Year 2, live performers are cut 40%, card fees follow sales, and the hires planned for months 18 and 26 slip six months. Distributions are scaled to $40,000, $40,000 and $70,000 in Years 3 to 5, against $120,000, $130,000 and $200,000 in the base case. There is no direct-cost gain, no pay cut for hourly staff and no change to rent. On those terms Year 1 loses $149,160 before start-up costs and Year 2 loses $61,220, and the restaurant earns $40,509 in Year 3 against $143,321 in the base case. Year-end cash stays at or above $335,494 and below the base case in every year, the lowest month-end balance is about $154,000 in August 2027, and equity at the end of Year 1 is $566,840. Debt service cover is 0.61x in Year 1, when the loan is interest-only, 1.09x in Year 2 and between 1.8x and 2.3x after that, so a covenant of 1.25x tested in the first two years would be missed. The owners would ask the bank at closing for covenant testing to start with Year 3 and for a second year of interest-only payments if Year 1 trading comes in under plan, and they would offer the reserve and the equity as the cushion. Without any response, the same shortfall loses money in every year and the cash balance turns negative during Year 2.
Single-factor sensitivities on the base case, each run through the same model with no management response and distributions unchanged:
- Opening one month late, with every cost still running: Year 1 loses $228,731 before start-up costs and the lowest month-end balance is about $28,000. Two months late overdraws the reserve by about $130,000.
- Dine-in covers 10% under plan in every year: Year 2 loses $169,591, Year 3 loses $55,602, debt service cover is 0.16x in Year 2 and 1.09x in Year 3, and cash turns negative in Year 4.
- Direct costs 2 points higher: Year 2 loses $22,017, Year 3 earns $108,071, and debt service cover is 1.4x in Year 2.
- All wages 10% higher: Year 2 loses $93,379, Year 3 earns $35,154, and debt service cover is 0.81x in Year 2.
- Rent 15% higher: Year 2 earns $14,605 and Year 3 $133,425.
- All revenue 5% under plan: Year 2 loses $72,966, Year 3 earns $51,180, and debt service cover is 0.99x in Year 2.
The base case has little room in Years 1 and 2, and the sensitivities show where it gives first: covers and wages.
Sources
- North Carolina ABC Commission, Permit types: lists application fees of $400 for malt beverage on-premises and unfortified wine on-premises permits and $1,000 for a mixed beverages restaurant permit. The page does not state eligibility, local approval requirements or timing, and the plan quotes none.
- North Carolina Department of Revenue, Corporate income and franchise tax rates: lists a corporate income tax rate of 2.25% for 2025 and 2.00% for 2026. The model holds 2.0% flat for later years, which the owners confirm with a CPA.
- Cornell Law School, 26 U.S.C. 11: section (b) sets the federal corporate income tax at 21 percent of taxable income.
- North Carolina Department of Revenue, Important notice: Mecklenburg County sales and use tax increase: dated March 2, 2026, announces an additional 1.00% county rate from July 1, 2026 and a general rate of 8.25%, up from 7.25%. Rates can change, so the owners confirm the current rate before pricing the menu.
- North Carolina Department of Labor, Overtime pay, salary and comp time: its worked example for tipped employees uses a $2.13 an hour cash wage with total pay of at least $7.25 an hour, and it states a guaranteed salary of at least $684 a workweek as part of the exempt test. The plan treats both as thresholds to confirm with a payroll provider.
- U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) loan terms and conditions: lists 7(a) loans of up to $5 million with maturities of 10 years or less unless real estate or long-lived equipment is financed. Interest rate, fees and approval rest with the lender.
- Wage levels above those thresholds, rents, build-out costs, prices, lender terms and the food-sales and local-approval conditions on a mixed-beverage permit are planning figures to be confirmed with a CPA, a payroll provider, a contractor, the landlord, counsel and the lender.
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