Looking for a deli restaurant business plan? You're in the right place.
A deli that seats customers, slices meat for the case and sends trays to offices has to answer questions a lender will ask in the first meeting. What does the kitchen and the curing chamber cost? How much of the year rests on one weekday lunch window? How thin is the first January? A blank template won't show you what a sensible answer looks like.
In this article we'll walk through a complete sample business plan for a deli restaurant in Columbus, Ohio, section by section, so you can see what good looks like and write your own with confidence. We'll cover the executive summary, the SWOT analysis and, in particular, all of the financials.
Here's what you'll take away:
- The executive summary: see how to put a restaurant with five revenue lines on one page, so a lender knows the ask within a minute
- The SWOT analysis: learn how to name a weekday-heavy week and a hospital-district address as strengths and risks in the same table
- The start-up budget: find out how a hood, a walk-in and a curing chamber add up before the first sandwich sells, and how big the winter reserve needs to be
- The first year, month by month: spot the cold months that lose money before you reach them, and plan the loan and the reserve around them
- The prime-cost table: see how food and payroll together are held near 65% of sales by the third year, so a banker sees the margin is earned
- The five-year profit, cash flow and balance sheet: understand how each hire, price and catering order shows up in the numbers
- The downside case: have an answer ready for the "what if sales run 20% short?" question, along with the steps the owner takes in response
If you're opening a deli restaurant, read this before you write your own. The restaurant is fictional, so take what fits and change the rest.
In this plan
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The Plan on One Page
Creek Haven is a sit-down and counter deli restaurant that opens in the first week of January 2027 in Columbus, Ohio, on a lunch corridor between two hospital campuses and an office cluster. It serves breakfast and lunch six days a week, early dinner on Thursday and Friday, and sells house-cured and sliced meats, cheeses and take-home sides from a deli case. Catering trays and box lunches are a second stream. Founder and chef-owner Marcus Ellery owns 70% of the restaurant and one private investor owns 30%.
The restaurant raises $550,000: $180,000 of Marcus's savings, $160,000 from the investor and a $210,000 bank term loan. Of that, $326,000 buys the hood, kitchen line, cooler, curing chamber and fit-out, $63,000 is expensed as start-up costs (permits, legal, two pre-opening months and the launch), $12,000 is opening stock and $149,000 is held as a reserve against a slow winter or a late opening.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $994,705 | $1,202,285 | $1,367,385 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($96,601) | $34,228 | $73,883 |
| Closing cash | $146,256 | $201,347 | $293,932 |
The first year opens in the Ohio winter and loses money, because January sells well under half of what October does and the fixed costs do not move. EBITDA is negative through April and positive from May. Year 2 is the first profitable year.
A soft-year case is run in the financial section. With sales 20% short and the owners responding from month 6 by cutting hours, hires, marketing and Marcus's own pay, and paying no distributions, cash stays positive in every year, but a 1.25x loan-cover test would fail in Years 1 and 2.
The offer is narrow. A large sandwich, a soup that changes daily and meat the kitchen cures itself, sold across a counter at lunch to people with a 30-minute break.
The Restaurant
Legal name: Creek Haven, LLC, an Ohio limited liability company. Owners: Marcus Ellery, 70%; one private investor, 30%. Premises: 3,200 square feet of leased second-generation restaurant space, with 68 seats (44 at tables, 14 at the counter and 10 at a communal table), a 420-square-foot kitchen and prep area and a deli case at the front. Hours: weekdays open at 6:30 a.m. and close at 3 p.m., except Thursday and Friday when early dinner runs to 7:30 p.m.; Saturday service is 8 a.m. to 1 p.m., and the restaurant is shut on Sundays. Opening: first week of January 2027, after a two-month fit-out.
Five things sold from one counter
| Line | How it is priced | Year 1 share of revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Lunch and early dinner | $16.50 average check | 64% |
| Breakfast | $9.50 average check | 13% |
| Deli case | By the pound and the quart | 10% |
| Catering trays and box lunches | $240 average order | 8% |
| Drinks, coffee, beer and wine | Per item | 5% |
What the restaurant is for
Give people who work near the hospital campuses a proper lunch in 30 minutes, with the meat cured in the building.
Goals to the end of Year 3
- 126 lunch checks a day in the first year, 149 a day by Year 3.
- First profitable year in 2028, with $1,202,285 of revenue.
- Prime cost, food plus payroll, down to about 65% of sales by 2029.
- Owner distributions from 2030, once retained earnings are positive and cash can be spared.
Permits and who signs off
The restaurant needs a food service license from the local health department, which is Columbus Public Health for an address inside the city, and a plan review before the kitchen is built. Curing is treated in the FDA Food Code (section 3-502.11) as a specialized process, and under that model code a regulator can require a written food safety plan, usually built on HACCP principles, and a variance before the process starts. Ohio applies the code through its own rules (Ohio Administrative Code Chapter 3717-1) and the local department, so the exact requirement for Creek Haven is a point to confirm with Columbus Public Health. Until approval is in hand the curing chamber sells nothing. If approval comes six months late, the kitchen buys cured corned beef and pastrami from a regional supplier. Bought-in cured meat costs more than meat cured in the building, so the sensitivity table prices the deli case at a 52% food cost in place of 44%. Smoking pastrami or bacon is a separate specialized process and would fall under the same approval. A beer and wine permit comes from the state's Division of Liquor Control, and local rules can restrict a location, so it is carried as a cost and a timing risk, with drink revenue held lower until month 4; the sensitivity table also shows the result if the permit never arrives. Every requirement and fee here is unconfirmed until the agency states it.
The Columbus Lunch Trade
Where the weekday trade comes from
Hospital campuses, clinics and a cluster of offices put a large daytime workforce within a ten-minute walk, many of them on fixed shifts with a short break. No headcount is quoted for the corridor. It would be counted from employer figures and on foot before the lease is signed, because the whole revenue line depends on it.
What lunch costs nearby
The lunch ticket of $16.50 is set between a national sandwich chain's value meal and a sit-down restaurant lunch. Prices differ by block and move often, so no competitor price is quoted here. The $12.50 to $15.50 sandwich range would be set against a walk of the corridor's menus before the board is printed.
Who the restaurant competes with
| Alternative | What it offers | Why someone picks it | How Creek Haven differs by design |
|---|---|---|---|
| National sandwich chains | Fast, consistent, many locations | Speed and loyalty apps | Larger portions, house-cured meat and a table to sit at |
| Hospital cafeterias | Inside the building, no walk | Zero travel time | A different room, and breakfast and lunch trays that staff can order for a unit |
| Grocery deli counters | Sliced meats and prepared food | One stop with the shopping | Meat cured in the building and a counter that knows the order |
| Independent cafes and diners | Table service, local following | Habit and atmosphere | A shorter menu and a faster line at noon |
| Delivery apps | Lunch brought to the desk | Convenience | A direct tray order with a standing schedule |
The table describes categories and how this restaurant positions itself, not a ranking.
SWOT
| Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|
| A chef-owner with kitchen management experience | Weekday-dependent: Saturday is a short day and Sunday is closed |
| House-cured meat that a chain cannot copy quickly | The curing chamber needs regulatory approval before it sells |
| Five revenue lines on one lease | Year 1 loses money and draws on the reserve |
| Opportunities | Threats |
|---|---|
| Standing tray orders from clinics and offices | Hospital or employer changes that move foot traffic |
| Holiday platters and gift boards sold from the case | Meat and cheese price swings in a 30% food-cost business |
| Early dinner as a second daypart on two nights | A cold January and February in the opening year |
Who Comes in at Noon
The shift worker with 30 minutes
Nurses, technicians, administrators and lab staff who want a hot meal they can eat in 15 minutes, and who return two or three times a week if the line moves. They are the bulk of the lunch checks.
The office team
Small teams of 6 to 20 who order a tray for a meeting and then, if it goes well, for the same meeting every week. This is where the catering line comes from.
The early riser
Breakfast customers: shift staff coming on at 7 a.m., commuters and a few locals. The breakfast check is $9.50 and the kitchen is already staffed for it.
The take-home shopper
A resident who buys a half-pound of ham or a quart of soup on the way home. The deli case sells to this customer. Thursday and Friday early dinner uses the same room for them and for staff leaving a shift.
What the customer asks of the restaurant
A hot sandwich in under ten minutes at noon. A price they can predict. A seat when they want one.
Filling the Room
From first visit to regular
Every new customer is handed a card with a free soup on the second visit, and the counter staff take a name and a number for the regulars' list. In the first year the aim is 126 lunch checks a day on average, which means a regular base of about 210 people who come in three times a week, with walk-ins and office orders making up the rest.
How tray orders are won
The general manager spends Tuesdays and Thursdays walking the corridor with samples and a one-page tray menu. About 60 offices and clinics order at least once in Year 1, and about 20 of them settle into a standing weekly or monthly order. Orders build from 7 in January to 45 in October.
| Order type | Orders in Year 1 | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Standing weekly or monthly orders | about 170 | 52% |
| Meeting and event trays | about 105 | 32% |
| Box lunches for training days | about 55 | 17% |
How prices are set
Sandwiches run from $12.50 to $15.50, with the average check reaching $16.50 once a soup, side or drink is added. Case meat is priced by the pound on a 44% cost target. A tray averages $240 for about 16 lunches. Prices rise 3% a year from Year 2.
Growth and its limits
Lunch checks grow from 38,500 in Year 1 to 47,000 in Year 5. Growth slows after Year 3 because the two-hour peak is already crowded: the busiest weekday of Year 1 serves about 175 checks, near 180 in the busiest month of Year 5, and the sandwich line, not the 68 seats, sets the ceiling (the capacity arithmetic is in the financial section). Catering needs no seat and carries growth from there. Reaching 650 tray orders in Year 3 takes about 110 accounts, roughly 35 of them on a standing schedule, to be won through corridor outreach, referrals from existing accounts and the tray menu on every lunch bag.
Marketing Plan
The budget and what it buys
Marketing totals $36,000 in Year 1, made up of $10,000 of launch spend funded from start-up capital and $26,000 of running costs. That is 3.6% of Year 1 revenue, falling to 1.5% in Year 3 and 1.4% in Year 5 as regulars and standing tray orders carry the trade. Spread over the 60 offices and clinics expected to order in Year 1, the corridor outreach costs about $100 an account.
| Channel | Year 1 spend | What it is expected to do |
|---|---|---|
| Signage, website and online ordering (launch) | $6,500 | A readable street sign and a menu with tray ordering in three taps |
| Opening-week tastings (launch) | $3,500 | Free samples to staff on both hospital campuses and two office buildings |
| Hospital and office outreach | $6,000 | Sample trays, a tray menu and a monthly route; about 60 accounts |
| Online ordering and delivery-app promotions | $4,000 | Introductory offers while the restaurant has no regulars |
| Local search and map listing | $3,500 | Searches such as "deli near me" and "lunch near the hospital" |
| Local social media ads | $4,000 | Specials and the cured-meat story to people within two miles |
| Loyalty card and text list | $2,500 | A free soup on the second visit and a list for daily specials |
| Community events and sponsorships | $3,000 | A seat at two charity runs and one corridor food day |
| Menu printing and photography | $3,000 | Boards, takeout menus and photographs for online listings |
Milestones
- January 2027: opening week, tastings on both campuses.
- April 2027: first standing tray orders, 23 orders in the month.
- July 2027: $82,899 of revenue in a summer month, with hospital and office staff on vacation.
- October 2027: 45 tray orders and the busiest month of the year.
Running the Line
The space
3,200 square feet at about $26 a square foot a year, all in ($83,200 in Year 1), on a five-year lease with a personal guarantee and a three-year renewal option. The layout puts the deli case and the sandwich line at the front, the grill and soup station behind them, and the curing chamber and walk-in at the back, away from the customer queue.
The daily rhythm
Prep starts at 5:30 a.m. with soup stock, and sandwich bread arrives from a local bakery. Breakfast runs until 10:30. The lunch line peaks between 11:30 and 1:30, with two people at the counter, a cook on the grill and the kitchen lead assembling. The afternoon is for slicing for the case, curing and tray preparation. Thursday and Friday early dinner runs on a reduced menu with one server.
House-cured meats
Corned beef, pastrami and house bacon are brined and cured on cycles of days to weeks in the chamber. The kitchen lead owns the log, and the written food safety plan is the first paper a regulator will ask for. Cured product is sold from the case by the pound and in sandwiches. Until the written plan is approved, the restaurant buys cured meat from a regional supplier, which costs more per pound; the base case does not price that, and the sensitivity table does.
Systems and suppliers
A point-of-sale system that handles table, counter and online orders, a catering order form with standing orders, and a food-cost sheet reviewed weekly by Marcus. Meat and cheese come from two regional distributors and produce from one, so a missed delivery has a second option.
Who works when
At the end of Year 1 the schedule has Marcus, a general manager, a kitchen lead and a line cook on salary, six part-time staff and a part-time catering coordinator from month 4. A second line cook joins in month 15 and a part-time driver in month 30. Each hire follows the sales the last one made possible, and the downside case shows what is delayed or dropped.
Insurance and safeguards
- General liability, property, liquor liability once a permit is held, and workers' compensation, which Ohio employers generally buy from the state fund run by the Bureau of Workers' Compensation rather than from private carriers.
- Food protection manager certification for Marcus, the general manager and the kitchen lead; the health department's risk classification of the premises decides how many certified people the rules require on site.
- A written food safety plan for the curing chamber and a temperature log for the walk-in and the case.
- Written terms for catering accounts, with a deposit on trays above a set size.
The People Behind the Counter
Marcus Ellery, founder and chef-owner
Marcus has fifteen years in commercial kitchens, the last six running the kitchen at a hotel restaurant and, before that, a cafeteria contractor serving a hospital. He holds a food protection manager certificate. His $180,000 is nine years of savings, and he draws $60,000 a year from the first month.
Where the team is thin
Marcus has not owned a restaurant before and has not run a catering book. The gaps are covered by a general manager who has run a counter operation, a part-time coordinator who owns tray scheduling and a retired restaurant owner who reviews the numbers monthly.
If Marcus is out
The kitchen lead can run a lunch service, and the general manager holds the food-protection certificate. Marcus's absence for a week would cost menu development and the sales calls, not a day's service.
Outside help
A restaurant accountant reviews the monthly numbers in the first year. The regional small business development network supports the loan application.
Ownership and the bank
Marcus owns 70% and the investor 30%, with no role in the kitchen. Marcus's stake reflects his $180,000 and his full-time work; the investor's $160,000 buys 30% at a value of about $533,000. The bank takes a personal guarantee from Marcus and a lien on the equipment, and asks for quarterly accounts.
Financial Plan: The Lunch Rush and the Loan
One model of the restaurant sits behind every table here: monthly for 2027, then one column per year to 2031. Funding and the working figures come first, followed by revenue, the weekly schedule, the three statements and a soft-year case. Pressure tests and the questions a lender would still raise follow the tables. All business figures are this fictional restaurant's own; wage floors, tax rates and permit rules are real-world items and are hedged or sourced where they appear.
Hood, cooler and the opening loan
| Use of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Hood, make-up air and fire suppression | $38,000 |
| Kitchen line: flat-top, ovens, fryer, soup kettles, slicers, prep tables | $54,000 |
| Walk-in cooler, curing chamber and refrigerated deli case | $46,000 |
| Leasehold fit-out: floors, walls, counter, hand sinks, seating, signage | $130,000 |
| Grease interceptor and plumbing | $14,000 |
| Point of sale, smallwares and uniforms | $14,000 |
| Build-out contingency (about 10% of equipment and fit-out) | $30,000 |
| Opening stock: meats for curing, cheese, produce, bread, packaging | $12,000 |
| Health license, plan review and business permits | $4,000 |
| Beer and wine permit application and legal review (fee set by the state; confirm) | $4,500 |
| Legal: lease review, entity, investor agreement | $6,500 |
| Pre-opening rent, utilities, training wages and trial menus (two months) | $38,000 |
| Launch: signage, website, hospital and office tasting events | $10,000 |
| Cash reserve for the first winter, a slow ramp and a two-month opening slip | $149,000 |
| Total uses | $550,000 |
| Source of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Marcus Ellery's savings | $180,000 |
| One private investor (30% stake) | $160,000 |
| SBA-style bank term loan | $210,000 |
| Total sources | $550,000 |
Marcus Ellery contributes $180,000 of savings and one private investor contributes $160,000 for 30% of the company, a price that values the restaurant at about $533,000 once the money is in. Marcus keeps 70% for his cash and for working in the kitchen full time. The bank contributes a $210,000 term loan at 10.25% over eight years, with only interest due in the first half-year, backed by a lien on the equipment; the length of the loan follows a lease of five years plus a three-year option. The rate is a planning figure rather than a quote, and SBA-backed terms may differ. Equity is 62% of the $550,000 raised. Hood, line, coolers and fit-out come to $326,000, about $102 a square foot, for second-generation restaurant space with a ventilation shaft and plumbing rough-in already in place and no landlord allowance counted; that is a planning figure to be replaced by contractor bids. The total includes a $14,000 grease interceptor and a $30,000 contingency. The $63,000 of start-up costs is expensed at opening. The $149,000 reserve is sized against two tests: the lowest month-end balance in the base case, about $75,000 in April, and a two-month slip in opening, which adds roughly $42,000 of rent, utilities and payroll before any sale and pulls that low to about $33,000, still above zero.
Counter and case figures behind the model
- Lunch and early-dinner checks total 38,500 in Year 1 at an average of $16.50, about $635,000. Spread over roughly 305 trading days (Monday to Saturday, less public holidays), that is 126 checks a day, a figure that blends a slow January with a full October. Checks rise to 42,500 in Year 2 (139 a day), 45,500 in Year 3 (149) and 47,000 in Year 5 (154), and menu prices go up 3% a year from Year 2. This line is 64% of Year 1 revenue, so the year depends on one weekday window of about two hours.
- The $16.50 average is a large sandwich at $12.50 to $15.50 plus a soup, side or drink on most orders. Thursday and Friday early dinner, open until 7:30 p.m., supplies about 8% of the lunch-line checks, or roughly 30 a night in Year 1. Prices are the restaurant's own and would be compared with the nearby lunch menus before the board is printed. About 210 regulars at three visits a week account for around 630 of the roughly 750 weekly lunch checks; walk-ins and office orders make up the remainder.
- Capacity at the lunch peak, as planning estimates: October of Year 1 sells about 4,150 lunch checks, which puts the busiest weekday near 175. If 70% of those fall in the two hours from 11:30 to 1:30, the line serves about 60 checks an hour, and with a third taken out, about 40 diners an hour sit down. At 35 minutes a visit they fill roughly 25 of the 68 seats. October of Year 5 sells about 4,280 lunch checks (47,000 at a 9.1% October weight), which puts its busiest weekday near 180 checks, about 63 an hour at the peak and 42 diners an hour seated, or about 25 seats. Seats are therefore not the first limit; the sandwich line is, at one order a minute across two registers and two builders. The model holds lunch growth to 1% to 2% a year after Year 3 for that reason, and catering, which needs no seat, carries the growth. October of Year 1 is already at full ramp and annualises to about 45,600 checks, above Year 2's 42,500, so Year 2 sits below the Year 1 peak run-rate and the ramp makes the Year 1 total look lower than the room can sell.
- Breakfast adds 13,500 checks at $9.50 in Year 1 ($128,253 after the January ramp), about 44 a day, rising to 18,000 in Year 3 (59 a day). Saturday is a short day that closes at 1 p.m.
- The deli case sells $100,000 in Year 1 and $152,000 in Year 3: meats and cheeses by the pound, house-cured items, and take-home sides and soups by the quart. Weighed product costs more of each dollar than a sandwich built to order, so the case is costed at 44% against 29% on the lunch line. That 44% is a planning figure with no outside benchmark behind it; sliced meats bought in carry a higher cost, which the sensitivity table prices at 52%. Pre-sliced yield loss is carried in the separate waste line. November and December supply about 23% of the case's Year 1 sales through holiday platters and gift boards.
- Catering trays and box lunches average $240 an order, roughly 16 lunches at $15. Orders number 330 in Year 1 ($79,200), 650 in Year 3 (2.5 per weekday) and 800 in Year 5 (3.1). The book starts at 7 orders in January and reaches 45 in October of Year 1. About 60 offices and clinics order at least once in Year 1 and about 20 become standing accounts. By Year 3 around 110 accounts order in the year, about 35 of them on a standing schedule.
- Food and drink cost is 29% of sales on the lunch line, 27% at breakfast, 44% in the case, 34% on trays and 26% on drinks, beer and wine. That blends to about 30.5% of Year 1 revenue, and the engine applies the Year 1 blend to every later year; a heavier catering mix would add a few tenths of a point by Year 5, so per-line margins quoted for later years are indicative only. Spoilage and trim waste is a separate 1.3% of sales, which brings total food cost to about 31.8%. One point of food cost equals $9,947 in Year 1 and $13,674 in Year 3. A beer and wine permit is planned for month 4, and drink revenue is held lower until then.
- Customers owe the restaurant about 3 days of sales, as cards settle within a day or two and office invoices run on 14-day terms; food suppliers wait 10 days for payment. Opening stock of $12,000 rises with sales to $13,517 by the close of Year 1 and $14,085 by the close of Year 3, which is roughly 16 and 12 days of food cost. Cured meats go through the chamber in cycles of days to a few weeks, so the chamber never holds months of product.
- Part-time pay is set at planning rates of about $13 to $15 an hour (the dish and prep role works out near $12.95). That implies roughly 13 hours a week for the Thursday and Friday server and 21 to 30 hours for the other part-time roles. Ohio's 2026 minimum wage was announced as $11.00 an hour, with a tipped cash wage of $5.50, against a federal floor of $7.25; the state figure is indexed to inflation each January, so the 2027 number will differ and should be checked with the Ohio Department of Commerce. The model pays the Thursday and Friday server a full hourly wage and uses no tip credit, and any tips staff report add employer Social Security and Medicare tax, which the 13% part-time load is meant to absorb. The line cook's $37,000 is 40 hours at about $15.50 plus about four overtime hours a week at time and a half. The general manager ($52,000) and kitchen lead ($50,000) are paid above the federal salary floor for the executive and administrative exemption, reported as $684 a week ($35,568 a year) after the 2024 increase was struck down; exempt status still turns on duties, so the classification is a point to confirm with counsel.
- Full-time wages carry a 25% employer load that stands for payroll taxes, state unemployment insurance, workers' compensation, part of the health premium and paid leave; part-time wages carry 13%. Ohio employers generally buy workers' compensation from the state fund run by the Bureau of Workers' Compensation rather than from private carriers, with the premium set by job classification, so the load is a planning figure. The personnel table shows launch rates; 3% yearly raises are booked on a separate line starting in Year 2. Marcus is paid $60,000 from the first month.
- Rent covers 3,200 square feet at roughly $26 per square foot per year including common charges, which makes $83,200 in Year 1 with a 3% annual step. Asking rents vary by street and landlord, so the lease is signed before the loan closes. A $38,000 utility bill looks heavy for the floor area; the hood, the walk-in and the curing chamber explain it. Repairs and replacement climb from $4,000 in Year 1 to $21,000 in Year 5 as the first fryers, slicers and compressors wear out.
- The model applies the 21% federal corporate rate (26 U.S.C. 11(b)) and a 2.5% planning figure for Columbus municipal tax on net profits. It carries the Year 1 operating loss forward but leaves the $63,000 of start-up costs out of the tax base, and it does not apply the federal limit that caps loss carryforwards at 80% of taxable income; both are simplifications to confirm with an accountant. Ohio does not tax corporate income and instead charges a commercial activity tax on gross receipts above an exclusion that was reported as $6 million from 2025, far above this restaurant's sales. How the company is taxed, as its own taxpayer or as a pass-through to the owners, remains an accountant's call, and a pass-through would shift the bill to the owners' returns. Distributions of $40,000 in Year 4 and $70,000 in Year 5 follow positive retained earnings and are below both net income and cash after principal.
Revenue by daypart, case and tray
| Revenue stream | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lunch and early dinner: sandwiches, soups and salads | $635,252 | $722,288 | $796,471 | $838,395 | $872,832 |
| Breakfast sandwiches, plates and coffee food | $128,253 | $161,453 | $181,414 | $192,047 | $203,154 |
| Deli case: sliced meats, cheeses and take-home sides | $100,000 | $128,000 | $152,000 | $160,000 | $166,000 |
| Catering trays and box lunches | $79,200 | $128,544 | $165,500 | $194,068 | $216,098 |
| Fountain drinks, coffee, beer and wine | $52,000 | $62,000 | $72,000 | $75,000 | $78,000 |
| Total revenue | $994,705 | $1,202,285 | $1,367,385 | $1,459,510 | $1,536,084 |
| Growth on prior year | – | 21% | 14% | 7% | 5% |
The lunch line carries the business at 64% of Year 1 revenue and 57% of Year 5. Catering grows fastest and rises from 8% of revenue to 14%; offices that reorder once tend to settle into a weekly or monthly slot. Breakfast uses a kitchen already staffed for it. The deli case yields the least margin per dollar but draws people past the counter and carries the holiday weeks.
Month by month through 2027
| Month | Lunch and early dinner: sandwiches, soups and salads | Breakfast sandwiches, plates and coffee food | Deli case: sliced meats, cheeses and take-home sides | Catering trays and box lunches | Fountain drinks, coffee, beer and wine | Total revenue | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2027 | $27,869 | $5,795 | $4,024 | $1,680 | $1,578 | $40,946 | ($26,696) |
| Feb 2027 | $32,769 | $6,897 | $4,801 | $2,640 | $1,883 | $48,990 | ($21,105) |
| Mar 2027 | $43,527 | $8,807 | $6,254 | $4,320 | $2,453 | $65,361 | ($9,725) |
| Apr 2027 | $49,797 | $10,080 | $7,252 | $5,520 | $4,211 | $76,860 | ($1,733) |
| May 2027 | $55,011 | $11,134 | $8,206 | $6,960 | $4,812 | $86,123 | $4,706 |
| Jun 2027 | $56,331 | $11,267 | $8,498 | $7,200 | $5,102 | $88,398 | $6,287 |
| Jul 2027 | $53,543 | $10,697 | $8,277 | $5,280 | $5,102 | $82,899 | $2,465 |
| Aug 2027 | $60,176 | $12,037 | $8,861 | $6,960 | $5,329 | $93,363 | $9,738 |
| Sep 2027 | $66,429 | $13,443 | $9,914 | $9,600 | $5,682 | $105,068 | $17,874 |
| Oct 2027 | $68,541 | $13,861 | $10,576 | $10,800 | $5,798 | $109,576 | $21,008 |
| Nov 2027 | $61,760 | $12,502 | $11,496 | $9,360 | $5,154 | $100,272 | $14,541 |
| Dec 2027 | $59,499 | $11,733 | $11,841 | $8,880 | $4,896 | $96,849 | $12,161 |
The year opens at $40,946 in January, its lowest month, and EBITDA stays negative through April before turning positive in May. June reaches $88,398, July slips to $82,899 while hospital and office staff take summer leave, and September and October peak at $105,068 and $109,576. December eases to $96,849 despite holiday platters and trays. The lowest month-end cash is in April 2027, at about $75,000, measured after receivables outstanding at month end. This is an approximate figure: the monthly view spreads each year's annual costs evenly and has no receivable timing, and Year 2 winter is not modeled because later years are spread evenly, although a second January dip is likely.
The weekly schedule and its hires
| Role | Annual wage | Starts | Year 1 end | Year 2 end | Year 3 end | Year 4 end | Year 5 end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Founder and chef-owner | $60,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| General manager (front of house and catering sales) | $52,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kitchen lead (curing and prep) | $50,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Line cook (breakfast and lunch) | $37,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lunch counter staff, weekdays (part time) | $18,500 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Lunch counter staff, weekdays (part time, second) | $18,500 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Breakfast and Saturday counter staff (part time) | $15,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Dish and prep (part time) | $17,500 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Weekday prep cook (part time) | $18,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Thursday and Friday early-dinner server (part time) | $9,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Catering coordinator and packer (part time) | $22,000 | Month 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Second line cook | $35,000 | Month 15 | – | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Second counter and prep shift (part time) | $17,000 | Month 38 | – | – | – | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Catering driver and packer (part time) | $18,000 | Month 30 | – | – | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Total payroll incl. on-costs | $376,440 | $419,113 | $438,270 | $464,354 | $465,955 |
Marcus cooks and manages from the first morning alongside a general manager, a kitchen lead who runs the curing chamber, a line cook and six part-time staff. A part-time catering coordinator starts in month 4 as the first tray orders arrive. A second line cook joins in month 15, when breakfast and lunch outgrow one cook and a prep helper; a catering driver follows in month 30 as trays pass two a weekday, and a second counter and prep shift in month 38. Part-time roles count as half a position in the table. Weekly coverage in Year 1: the doors are open about 56 hours (42.5 on weekdays, 9 for Thursday and Friday dinner, 5 on Saturday) and the kitchen is staffed about 66. The kitchen needs roughly 180 person-hours a week with dish and prep, against about 185 supplied by Marcus (about 45), the kitchen lead (45), the line cook (44), the prep cook (about 25) and dish (about 26), so coverage is thin and a sick call is covered by Marcus. The counter needs roughly 85 hours from hourly staff, plus the general manager at the register, and the part-time roles supply about 85. Counted by hours worked and not by headcount, revenue per 40-hour equivalent is about $116,000 in Year 1 and $134,000 in Year 3. Marcus's $60,000 salary sits inside the cost lines already.
Profit and loss
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $994,705 | $1,202,285 | $1,367,385 | $1,459,510 | $1,536,084 |
| Food and drink cost (meats, cheese, produce, bread, beverages, packaging) | ($303,299) | ($366,593) | ($416,935) | ($445,025) | ($468,373) |
| Gross profit | $691,406 | $835,692 | $950,450 | $1,014,485 | $1,067,711 |
| Payroll incl. on-costs | ($376,440) | ($419,113) | ($438,270) | ($464,354) | ($465,955) |
| Rent | ($83,200) | ($85,700) | ($88,300) | ($90,900) | ($93,600) |
| Utilities | ($38,000) | ($39,200) | ($40,400) | ($41,600) | ($42,800) |
| Marketing | ($26,000) | ($23,000) | ($21,000) | ($21,500) | ($22,000) |
| Insurance | ($15,000) | ($15,600) | ($16,200) | ($16,800) | ($17,400) |
| Professional fees | ($9,000) | ($8,500) | ($9,000) | ($9,500) | ($10,000) |
| Software subscriptions | ($5,200) | ($5,500) | ($5,800) | ($6,100) | ($6,400) |
| Card processing fees (2.6% of sales) | ($25,862) | ($31,259) | ($35,552) | ($37,947) | ($39,938) |
| Delivery-app commissions and catering courier fees (1.4% of sales) | ($13,926) | ($16,832) | ($19,143) | ($20,433) | ($21,505) |
| Spoilage and trim waste (1.3% of sales) | ($12,931) | ($15,630) | ($17,776) | ($18,974) | ($19,969) |
| Bad debt on catering accounts (0.3% of sales) | ($2,984) | ($3,607) | ($4,102) | ($4,379) | ($4,608) |
| Paper goods, takeout packaging and cleaning supplies (3.0% of sales) | ($29,841) | ($36,069) | ($41,022) | ($43,785) | ($46,083) |
| Phone, internet, music licensing, trash and uniforms | ($9,500) | ($9,800) | ($10,100) | ($10,400) | ($10,700) |
| Cleaning, linen, pest control and grease-trap service | ($8,200) | ($8,600) | ($9,000) | ($9,400) | ($9,800) |
| Licenses, inspections and dues | ($1,800) | ($1,900) | ($2,000) | ($2,100) | ($2,200) |
| Equipment repair and replacement | ($4,000) | ($7,000) | ($11,000) | ($16,000) | ($21,000) |
| Annual pay raises (3% a year) | $0 | ($12,573) | ($26,691) | ($43,058) | ($58,481) |
| EBITDA | $29,522 | $95,808 | $155,094 | $157,255 | $175,272 |
| Depreciation | ($41,800) | ($41,800) | ($41,800) | ($41,800) | ($41,800) |
| Interest | ($21,323) | ($19,593) | ($17,374) | ($14,917) | ($12,195) |
| Income tax | $0 | ($187) | ($22,038) | ($23,099) | ($27,863) |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($33,601) | $34,228 | $73,883 | $77,440 | $93,413 |
| Start-up costs expensed at opening (legal, permits, pre-opening rent and training, launch marketing) | ($63,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($96,601) | $34,228 | $73,883 | $77,440 | $93,413 |
Before start-up costs Year 1 shows a $33,601 loss, and $96,601 once they are counted. Year 2 turns profitable at $34,228, with net income of $73,883 in Year 3, $77,440 in Year 4 and $93,413 in Year 5. EBITDA margin climbs from 3.0% in Year 1 to 11.3% in Year 3, slips to 10.8% in Year 4 as the second counter shift and pay raises arrive together, and reaches 11.4% in Year 5. Income tax is $187 in Year 2 and $22,038 in Year 3, because the Year 1 operating loss shelters most of the Year 2 profit.
Cash movements
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | ($68,184) | $75,740 | $115,453 | $119,111 | $135,107 |
| Hood, kitchen line, cooling and fit-out | ($326,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Funding received | $550,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Loan principal repaid | ($9,561) | ($20,649) | ($22,868) | ($25,325) | ($28,046) |
| Owner distributions | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($40,000) | ($70,000) |
| Net change in cash | $146,256 | $55,091 | $92,585 | $53,786 | $37,060 |
| Closing cash | $146,256 | $201,347 | $293,932 | $347,718 | $384,779 |
Closing cash stays above $146,000 in every year and reaches $384,779 by Year 5 after distributions. Year 1 operations absorb $68,184 on top of $326,000 for equipment and fit-out, both covered by the $550,000 raised. The term loan steps down from $200,439 after Year 1 to $103,551 after Year 5. Distributions of $40,000 and $70,000 in Years 4 and 5 are 52% and 75% of net income and sit below cash after principal in each year ($94,000 and $107,000). Net income after start-up costs totals $182,363 over five years against $110,000 distributed, so retained earnings finish at $72,362. The April low is about half the Year 1 closing balance, and the cash held back beyond it is the margin for a slipped opening, a failed compressor or a soft first winter.
Balance sheet with stock on hand
| At year end | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $146,256 | $201,347 | $293,932 | $347,718 | $384,779 |
| Accounts receivable | $8,176 | $9,882 | $11,239 | $11,996 | $12,625 |
| Stock on hand (cured and sliced meats, cheese, produce, packaging) | $13,517 | $13,833 | $14,085 | $14,225 | $14,342 |
| Hood, kitchen line, cooling and fit-out (net) | $284,200 | $242,400 | $200,600 | $158,800 | $117,000 |
| Total assets | $452,148 | $467,461 | $519,855 | $532,739 | $528,746 |
| Owed to food suppliers | $8,310 | $10,044 | $11,423 | $12,192 | $12,832 |
| Bank term loan | $200,439 | $179,791 | $156,923 | $131,598 | $103,551 |
| Paid-in capital | $340,000 | $340,000 | $340,000 | $340,000 | $340,000 |
| Retained earnings | ($96,601) | ($62,373) | $11,510 | $48,949 | $72,362 |
| Total liabilities and equity | $452,148 | $467,461 | $519,855 | $532,739 | $528,746 |
Prime cost, break-even and loan cover
| Measure | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin | 3.0% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 11.4% |
| Net margin (before start-up costs) | -3.4% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% |
| Payroll incl. pay raises as share of revenue | 38% | 36% | 34% | 35% | 34% |
| Revenue per full-time equivalent at year end | $132,627 | $141,445 | $151,932 | $153,633 | $161,693 |
| Average monthly revenue | $82,892 | $100,190 | $113,949 | $121,626 | $128,007 |
| Monthly revenue needed to cover operating costs | $79,353 | $88,704 | $95,355 | $102,773 | $106,994 |
| Debt service cover (EBITDA / interest + principal) | 1.0x | 2.4x | 3.9x | 3.9x | 4.4x |
Monthly sales average $82,892 in Year 1 against a break-even of $79,353, a margin of roughly 4% that January to April never see. The averages are $100,190 against $88,704 in Year 2 and $113,949 against $95,355 in Year 3. Loan cover is 0.96x in Year 1 (the table rounds it to 1.0x), thin by any bank's standard; the reserve covers the shortfall, and cover climbs to 2.4x in Year 2, 3.9x in Year 3 and 4.4x in Year 5. Food plus payroll including raises (prime cost) is 68.3% of sales in Year 1 and 66.4% in Year 2, then 64.5% in Year 3, 65.3% in Year 4 and 64.6% in Year 5; with the 1.3% waste line, Year 3 reaches 65.8%.
A soft year: sales 20% short
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $795,764 | $961,828 | $1,093,908 | $1,167,608 | $1,228,867 |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($125,006) | ($17,331) | $46,689 | $72,083 | $74,541 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($188,006) | ($17,331) | $46,689 | $72,083 | $74,541 |
| Closing cash | $55,127 | $58,717 | $124,155 | $212,611 | $300,820 |
Every revenue line runs 20% below the base case in every year. Costs tied to sales (card fees, packaging, couriers, waste) fall with sales from the first month. The owners respond once the shortfall is visible, in month 6: hourly staff and the line cook are scheduled down by a fifth and Marcus takes a 20% pay cut from then on. Year 1 marketing is left as budgeted and is cut 20% from Year 2. The second line cook, the second counter shift and the catering driver are never hired, hires from month 13 are otherwise delayed six months, and no distributions are paid. The lowest year-end cash is $55,127 at the end of Year 1, and the lowest month-end balance is about $38,000, on the same basis as the base case. The restaurant loses money in Years 1 and 2 and earns $46,689 in Year 3, $72,083 in Year 4 and $74,541 in Year 5; Year 3 profit is about 37% below the base case. Debt service cover is negative (-2.0x) in Year 1, 1.1x in Year 2 and 2.6x in Year 3, so a 1.25x covenant fails in the first two years. The owners would ask the bank for no cover test until the 2029 accounts, six further interest-only months (twelve in all) and an undrawn $50,000 standby line. Equity ends Year 1 at $151,994. Cash is lower than in the base case in every year. The weakest point is the cut in hours, which works only if managers cut as fast as sales fall, and a lender would test that first.
Pressure Tests and What a Lender Would Still Ask
Sensitivity cases
Each row changes one input in the engine and leaves everything else as in the base case, with the owners making no response and distributions still paid in Years 4 and 5. Net income is after start-up costs. The lowest month-end cash is the Year 1 figure on the build-section basis (month-end cash less receivables), so it is approximate.
| Case | Year 1 net income | Year 3 net income | Year 2 loan cover | Lowest month-end cash, Year 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | ($96,601) | $73,883 | 2.4x | $74,880 |
| Revenue 10% lower in every line | ($165,742) | $875 | 0.3x | $46,546 |
| Food and drink cost 3 points higher | ($126,442) | $54,899 | 1.5x | $66,106 |
| All wages 10% higher | ($134,245) | $49,424 | 1.3x | $58,834 |
| Rent 10% higher | ($104,921) | $70,775 | 2.2x | $72,107 |
| Opening slips two months (about $42,000 extra) | ($138,601) | $73,883 | 2.4x | $32,880 |
| Deli case costed at 52% (bought-in cured meat) | ($104,601) | $69,284 | 2.1x | $73,013 |
| Beer and wine permit never granted (drinks 40% lower) | ($111,993) | $65,044 | 1.9x | $72,015 |
| Catering 30% lower | ($112,283) | $57,517 | 1.7x | $72,289 |
The result is fragile to sales. A 10% revenue shortfall with no response leaves Year 3 at roughly break-even, drives Year 2 loan cover to 0.3x and uses the cash down to about $2,000 by Year 5 while the distributions are still paid. Wages and food cost are the next largest exposures. The slip case is why the reserve is $149,000 and not smaller. The engine's tax line ignores start-up costs and the federal 80% limit on loss carryforwards, and the monthly view spreads each year's annual costs evenly, so the early-year cash lows are approximate.
Questions still open
- Lease and guarantee. The terms of the five-year lease, the three-year option, any tenant allowance and the size of Marcus's personal guarantee are not settled. No allowance is counted in the funding.
- Covenants. The base case shows loan cover of 0.96x in Year 1 and the soft-year case fails a 1.25x test in Years 1 and 2. The owners would ask for no cover test before the 2029 accounts, six more interest-only months and an undrawn $50,000 standby line.
- Owner track record. Marcus has run kitchens but never owned a restaurant or a catering book. A lender would ask for references and for the general manager's record.
- Build-out bids. Equipment and fit-out of $326,000, about $102 a square foot, is a planning figure with a $30,000 contingency. Written contractor bids and the health department's plan review come before the loan closes.
- Permit timeline. The curing approval, the food license and the beer and wine permit have uncertain dates. The base case sells no cured product from the chamber until approved.
- Reserve against the low. The $149,000 reserve compares with a base-case low near $75,000 and a slip-case low near $33,000. Whether a bank counts the reserve as equity or as restricted cash is a term to settle.
- Investor return and split. The investor puts in $160,000 for 30% and receives distributions only from Year 4. Total distributions of $110,000 over Years 4 and 5 go to both owners in proportion to their shares, so the investor receives $33,000 on $160,000 in that window. A lender would ask about the investor's exit and any preferred return.
- Key-person risk. Marcus works in the kitchen about 45 hours a week; key-person insurance is not funded.
- Winter of Year 2. The model spreads Year 2 evenly, so a second January and February dip is not shown.
Sources
- 26 U.S.C. 11(b), 21% federal corporate rate: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/11
- Ohio Department of Commerce, 2026 minimum wage of $11.00 and tipped cash wage of $5.50, effective January 1, 2026, indexed yearly (reported in Spectrum News, September 30, 2025: https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/news/2025/09/30/ohio-set-to-raise-minimum-wage-in-2026). The 2027 figure will differ.
- U.S. Department of Labor, Wage and Hour Division, executive and administrative exemption salary level of $684 a week after the 2024 increase was set aside (summarized by law firms in May 2026, for example https://phillipslytle.com/overtime-exemptions-under-fair-labor-standards-act-rolled-back-to-2019-standards/clientalert-laboremployment-flsa-2026-05-15-mobile/).
- Ohio Department of Taxation, commercial activity tax exclusion of $6 million from 2025 (summarized at https://hbkcpa.com/insights/ohio-cat-exclusion-increases-january-1-2025/). Columbus municipal net-profit tax at 2.5% is a planning figure from the City Auditor's income tax division.
- Ohio Bureau of Workers' Compensation, state fund and classification-based premiums. No rates are quoted.
- Ohio Division of Liquor Control, permit information. No permit fee or quota is quoted.
- Columbus Public Health, retail food licensing and plan review. No fee is quoted.
- FDA Food Code, section 3-502.11 (specialized processes, including curing), applied in Ohio through Ohio Administrative Code Chapter 3717-1 and local health departments.
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