Looking for a singles bar business plan? You're in the right place.
A venue built around meeting people has to answer questions an ordinary bar can skip. How many guests does a Thursday need before the mixer nights pay for the host? How much of a weekend's revenue comes from three nights, and what happens in a slow week? What does the plan say about the liquor license, server training and the liability a lender will ask about?
This article walks through a complete sample plan for a social lounge in Nashville, Tennessee, section by section, and finishes with the financials: start-up funding, the first twelve months including two pre-opening months, five years of profit, cash flow and balance sheet, and a downside case.
Here's what you'll take away:
- The room and the format: see how a venue describes its capacity, its event nights and its door policy so a lender can test them
- The rules the lounge runs under: learn where alcohol licensing, server training and liability show up in the plan, and how to hedge what you cannot yet confirm
- The night-by-night revenue build: work out entries, spend per guest, tables, tickets and party rentals so the sales line can be checked
- The marketing budget: compare launch spend, mixer-night promotion and community partnerships against the entries they are meant to bring
- The funding and reserve: size cash for two months with no sales and a slow summer before they arrive
- The five-year statements and downside case: see how a Thursday-to-Saturday business holds up against payroll and rent, and what the owners cut if sales run 20% short
If you're planning a lounge, bar or event venue, read this before you write your own. The lounge is fictional, so take what fits your room and change the rest.
In this plan
If you need a singles bar business plan template for your own plan, start it in the Toolkit.
Sterling Lounge in Brief
Sterling Lounge is a 4,500-square-foot social lounge in Nashville, Tennessee. Operators would call it a singles bar; the plan calls it a lounge because it is built so that people who arrive alone or in pairs can meet others without it feeling forced. It opens on March 1, 2027, Wednesday to Saturday, with trivia on Wednesday, speed-networking and themed mixers on Thursday, and a DJ night on Friday and Saturday. Sundays to Tuesdays are kept for private-party rentals. Dana Whitfield, the general manager, and her partner Caleb Ortiz own and run it as Sterling Lounge, Inc.
The company raises $1,124,000: $380,000 from the founders, $444,000 from two private investors and a $300,000 bank loan that depends on underwriting. Of that, $529,000 buys the build-out, sound, bars, prep kitchen and systems, $30,000 buys opening stock, $114,000 covers legal work, the alcohol license applications, pre-opening training and the launch, and $451,000 is held as a reserve.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1,147,224 | $1,710,462 | $1,947,083 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($327,665) | $35,388 | $112,330 |
| Closing cash | $275,632 | $323,231 | $425,201 |
The bar is 64% of Year 1 revenue. Reserved tables are 12%, door cover 11%, private-party rentals 8% and ticketed mixers 4%. Three nights, Thursday to Saturday, carry most of the week, which is why the plan spends so much of its effort on what happens on the other four. Year 1 loses money: rent and salaries run for two months before the first guest, and the room then takes ten months to fill. Profit first appears in Year 2.
A second run takes 20% off entries and spend. The owners cut pay from the seventh month, drop later hires, trim marketing and talent and pay out a quarter of the planned dividends. Cash stays positive throughout, and profit returns in Year 3.
The Room and the Rules It Runs Under
Legal name: Sterling Lounge, Inc., a Tennessee corporation taxed as a C corporation. Shareholders: Dana Whitfield and Caleb Ortiz hold 51% between them, and two private investors hold 49%. Premises: 4,500 square feet of a second-generation restaurant space on the edge of a Nashville entertainment district, on a ten-year lease with an option to renew and a landlord allowance netted off the build-out. Schedule: license applications filed before the lease is signed, build-out and hiring in January and February 2027, doors open March 1. Hours: open Wednesday to Saturday from about 6 p.m. until 1 a.m., within whatever the license and local rules allow.
What is on the floor
| Area | What is in it |
|---|---|
| Lounge | Mixed seating in groups of two to six, a few communal tables, and a small stage corner for the DJ and the trivia host |
| Bars | A main bar and a service bar that also serves the reserved tables |
| Reserved section | Eight tables sold by minimum spend |
| Door | One ID and check-in line with a ticket scanner for mixer nights |
| Back of house | Coolers, glass-wash, a dry store and an office |
The week
Wednesday is trivia, with no cover. Thursday is speed-networking and a themed mixer: a professional round first, then an open floor. A themed Friday mixer runs about every other week. Friday is a themed night with a resident DJ. Saturday is the largest night, with cover after nine. Private parties use Sunday to Tuesday.
How a Year 3 dollar is spent
Out of each dollar the lounge takes in during Year 3, about 22 cents pays for liquor, mixers, bottles and plates and 37 cents for payroll. Rent is about 9 cents, talent 4 cents, and insurance and marketing together about 7 cents. EBITDA keeps about 10 cents, before depreciation, interest and tax.
Licensing and liability
Selling alcohol for on-premises consumption takes a license from the Tennessee Alcoholic Beverage Commission for liquor and wine by the drink and, in Nashville, local approval as well; beer permits are issued locally by the Metropolitan Beer Permit Board, which does not issue liquor licenses. The process, eligibility, any local sign-off, the fees and the timeline are for those bodies and counsel to confirm, and the plan quotes no fee schedule or limit on the number of licenses. The lounge files before it signs the lease, makes the lease conditional on the license being granted and does not open without it. The lounge also serves a short menu of shareable plates from a small prep kitchen included in the build-out; whether on-premises license rules or local rules attach conditions to food service is a question for counsel, and the food revenue sits inside bar sales. Counsel also advises on liability for over-service, so server training, a written cut-off rule and liquor liability insurance are built into operations and budget. The general state sales tax rate is 7% according to the Tennessee Department of Revenue, local rates add to it and vary by county and city, and liquor sold by the drink carries its own state tax. These are collected from guests and remitted; prices and revenue are shown before them, and rates change.
Nashville Nights
Why this room, in this city
The plan treats Nashville as a city with steady visitor traffic at weekends and a large working population of people who have moved there for a job, and it quotes no market statistics. The seasonal index lifts spring and early fall, when visitor weekends fill the hotels, and December for holiday parties, and eases in July, August and November. The index is a planning figure, not a published number, and applies to Year 1 only; later years are annual.
The other ways to spend an evening
| Alternative | What it offers | Why a guest picks it | How Sterling Lounge differs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neighborhood bars | Familiar, cheap, near home | Routine and price | A format that gives strangers a reason to talk |
| Live-music rooms | Bands and ticketed shows | Original music | Conversation-first, with the sound set to allow it |
| Hotel and rooftop lounges | Views, table service, a quiet crowd | Comfort and a visitor-friendly setting | Priced for locals, with a weekly calendar |
| Social clubs and meet-up groups | Interest-based groups, often free | A shared hobby | A staffed room, open on set nights, no membership |
| Dating apps | Convenience, a wide pool | Control and privacy | Meeting in person with a host, a room and a plan for the night |
The table describes types of venue and service and names no competitor. Each publishes its own prices.
Position in one sentence
A room built so that arriving alone feels ordinary, with structure on the nights that need it and no pressure on the nights that do not.
Strengths and exposures
| Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|
| Three event formats that give the room a calendar | A new brand in a city with many established venues |
| A reserved section and party rentals that raise the value of a night | Revenue is concentrated in Thursday to Saturday |
| Founders with hospitality and finance experience | Year 1 loses money and draws on the reserve |
| Opportunities | Threats |
|---|---|
| Employer and community groups that book mixers | A better-funded venue opening nearby |
| Private parties on dark nights | A guest incident or a liability claim |
| Partner nights with local brands | A license delay or a hours dispute |
Who Comes Out to Meet People
The new arrival
Aged 27 to 40, recently moved for work, with a thin local circle. Comes alone or with one colleague, stays an hour or two, and returns to a night with a format. Spends on drinks, not on tables.
The Thursday professional
A mid-career employee who wants to meet people outside their firm. Comes for the speed-networking round, buys two drinks and stays if the room is good. Some buy tickets ahead and others pay at the door.
The Saturday group
Four to eight friends, a birthday or a visiting friend, arriving after nine and booking a table when the group is large.
The weekend visitor
Travelers, alone or in a group, in town for a few days and looking for somewhere with a local feel. They are few on an average week and many at the spring and fall peaks.
The booker
An office lead, a birthday organizer or a community group that needs a private room for 40 to 120 people on a night the lounge is otherwise dark.
What each of them expects
A host who makes the first minute easy, drinks that arrive quickly, a room where a conversation is possible, and a door that feels safe. The format must be optional: someone who only wants a drink is not made to join.
Filling Thursday to Saturday
One bar, five reasons to come
People come for trivia, a ticketed mixer, a DJ set, a reserved table or a private party. In Year 1 the lounge counts 23,674 entries across about 170 open nights, an average of 139 a night, 43% of the 320 capacity. Year 3 averages 172, 54%, and a Saturday of about 268 runs at 84%.
Selling the mixer
Mixer tickets go on sale through the website and a ticket platform, and the host confirms the numbers a day ahead. Mixers run on most Thursdays and on a themed Friday about once a month at first and about every other week by Year 3. Year 1 runs 48 mixer and speed-networking nights, about 40 Thursdays and 8 Fridays, at about 40 attendees and a $26 ticket. Year 3 runs 70, about 48 Thursdays and 22 Fridays, at 46. The ticket pays for the host and the format; the guest's drinks are counted in the blended bar spend, and ticket holders do not pay cover.
Selling tables and rooms
Tables are booked online against a deposit, and the night's minimum spend is billed to the table. The plan sells 294 of them in Year 1, at a $480 average check, and 510 in Year 3. Private-party inquiries all go to the events and partnerships manager, whose quote has three parts: the room fee, a food-and-beverage minimum and staffing. Parties number 25 in Year 1 and 60 in Year 3.
Pricing
| Item | Year 1 figure | How it is set |
|---|---|---|
| Realized cover per entry | $5.25 | Posted cover less the free-before-nine window, guest list, comps and ticket holders |
| Bar spend per entry | $31 | Blended: about two drinks plus about $5 of plates, after table guests |
| Reserved table check | $480 | Bottles and mixers, before gratuity |
| Mixer ticket | $26 | One evening, host and format included |
| Private party | $3,600 | Room fee plus a food-and-beverage minimum |
Prices rise 3% a year from Year 2.
Making the Room Known
Where the marketing money goes
The opening year puts $116,000 into marketing. Of that, $38,000 is launch spend paid from the start-up capital and $78,000 is a running cost, 6.8% of Year 1 revenue and 4.3% by Year 3. Divide by the 23,674 entries and the running cost comes to $3.29 each, or $4.90 with the launch counted.
| Item | Year 1 spend | What it is expected to do |
|---|---|---|
| Launch: brand, website and booking page | $12,000 | A site with table booking, mixer tickets and a calendar |
| Launch: opening-week events | $14,000 | A soft-opening week and the first two themed Fridays |
| Launch: creator and community partnerships | $12,000 | Local groups and hospitality accounts that tell their followers |
| Paid social and creator content | $22,000 | Event posts, short video and retargeting of site visitors |
| Mixer promotion and ticket-platform listings | $14,000 | Selling the Thursday format to the people who want it |
| Community and employer partnerships | $12,000 | Relocation groups, alumni networks and office social leads |
| Weeknight formats and prizes | $12,000 | Trivia prizes and theme dressing that give midweek a reason |
| Regulars program | $8,000 | A reward for the third visit, to turn a new arrival into a regular |
| Photography and site upkeep | $10,000 | Content for the next event |
Milestones
- January and February 2027: build-out, hiring and training, with no sales.
- March 2027: doors open, 1,705 entries in the first month.
- May to August 2027: within a few thousand dollars of break-even, June the first month in profit, with the lowest month-end cash in August.
- December 2027: 3,013 entries and $152,221 of revenue, the year's peak.
A Night Behind the Door
A night in sequence
The crew gathers at 4:30 p.m. for a line-up and to count stock, and the doors open at 6. On Thursdays the host begins the first round at 7, and the room fills after 9. Last call comes at 12:45 a.m., the floor is empty by 2 a.m. and the cash is counted before anyone leaves.
Security and the door
The security lead and door captain runs a team of two part-time officers, with a third from month 22, and door staff: one on Wednesday and Thursday and two on Friday and Saturday. Security and door staff cost about $113,000 in Year 1, 10% of revenue, and about $154,000 in Year 3, 8% before pay raises. Whether in-house door staff must be registered or licensed in Tennessee is a question for counsel; if it applies, registration is a cost the plan would add.
The bar and the cut-off
Bartenders and table servers complete alcohol-server training before their first shift, and counsel confirms whether Tennessee or Nashville requires it and what protection it gives the lounge. The written house rules include a cut-off rule, a water station and a rule that any manager can refuse service. Four bartenders and one barback work the two bars at launch, with a fifth bartender from month 20.
The kitchen
A kitchen lead and cook, on payroll from month 2, runs a short menu of shareable plates from the prep kitchen, which has $24,000 of equipment in the use of funds. Plates account for about $5 of the $31 bar spend. Food-service permits and inspections are for the health authorities to state, and the plan quotes no fee for them.
Hosts and the format
The mixer host runs the Thursday rounds, introduces strangers and handles a guest who is not comfortable. The plan's rule is that nobody is moved around the room without agreeing to it, and the host has authority to end an unwelcome conversation.
Suppliers
Licensed distributors supply spirits, beer and wine, and each delivery is paid for on arrival. Two or three of them hold the core range. Premium bottles for the reserved tables are bought in small lots, and none of the suppliers would be hard to replace.
Insurance and licenses
- State alcohol license and local approvals, with occupancy approvals and the permit posted at the door.
- Music licensing, permits and inspections together come to $9,000 in Year 1.
- Insurance for liquor liability, general liability and property is set at $48,000 for Year 1; a broker's quote could land above or below that.
- Workers' compensation sits inside the payroll on-costs.
Two Founders and What They Lack
Dana Whitfield, general manager
Dana has spent twelve years in hospitality, most of it as a bar and events manager for a hotel group. She runs the floor, the hiring and the relationship with the commission and the city. Her $78,000 salary is in the costs.
Caleb Ortiz, finance and bookings partner
Caleb is a former financial controller who handles the bank, the investors and the books, and works Thursday and Friday nights. He takes no salary from the lounge in the first years and receives dividends from Year 3 like any shareholder. A lender would ask how he is supported meanwhile, and the founders say it is from his own savings.
Where the team is thin
Neither founder has run a ticketed-event program at this scale. The plan fills the gap with the events and partnerships manager from month 2 and a cap on the mixer calendar of 74 nights in Year 5.
If a founder is out
The bar manager and the security lead can open and close the building, and the weekend nights manager hired in month 16 is the third person who can. The investors hold the right to appoint an interim manager if the general manager is out for more than 60 days.
Ownership and the bank
Shares split 51% to the founders and 49% to the investors. The loan is secured on the equipment and guaranteed personally by Dana and Caleb, and the bank's terms would include quarterly reporting, a cash floor and a cover test.
Outside advice
A Tennessee hospitality attorney reviews the lease, the license applications and the security arrangements. An accountant with other venue clients reviews the books each quarter.
Numbers behind the lounge
The forecast covers five years. January and February 2027 are pre-opening months with rent, utilities and the first salaries but no sales; the doors open on March 1. Year 1 is shown month by month, and Years 2 to 5 are annual. The planning figures come first so each line of the statements traces back to a night, a table or a ticket.
Build-out and opening funds
| Use of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Build-out of 4,500 sq ft: two bars, lounge seating, restrooms, stage corner, acoustic treatment (net of landlord allowance) | $330,000 |
| Sound, lighting and DJ and trivia booth | $85,000 |
| Bars: coolers, ice, glass-wash and back-bar | $62,000 |
| Point of sale, ticketing, door scanners and cameras | $28,000 |
| Prep kitchen: range, fryer, prep tables, refrigeration and smallwares | $24,000 |
| Opening liquor, beer, mixers and bottle-service stock | $30,000 |
| Legal: lease, entity, license application, investor and loan documents | $24,000 |
| State and local alcohol licenses, fire and occupancy approvals, city fees | $14,000 |
| Pre-opening utilities, hiring, training and a soft-opening week | $38,000 |
| Launch: brand, website and booking page, opening-week events, creator and community partnerships | $38,000 |
| Cash reserve for the ramp and the summer dip | $451,000 |
| Total uses | $1,124,000 |
| Source of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Founders (Dana Whitfield and Caleb Ortiz) | $380,000 |
| Two private investors | $444,000 |
| Bank term loan (subject to underwriting) | $300,000 |
| Total sources | $1,124,000 |
Three sources fund the lounge: the founders at $380,000, two private investors at $444,000, and a $300,000 bank loan on a seven-year term at 10.5%, interest-only for twelve months. The loan is 27% of the $1,124,000 raise; its rate, term and any personal guarantees are planning figures that depend on underwriting. Uses: $529,000 for the build-out, sound, bars, prep kitchen and systems, $30,000 for opening stock, $114,000 for legal work, alcohol license applications, pre-opening training and the launch, and a $451,000 reserve. Base-case cash is lowest in August at about $211,000, but the reserve is sized against a late license and a weak first year rather than that trough. Suppose the doors open three months late. If the kitchen lead, the part-time staff and the opening stock order wait for the license, while rent, utilities, insurance and the managers keep running, the lowest month-end balance falls to about $7,000 in July; without that hiring delay it would go negative. A longer delay would need a lender deferral or a founder bridge. Under a 20% shortfall in entries and spend, with the cuts described below, the lowest Year 1 month-end balance is about $139,000, in November, and Year 2 closes at $99,621, the lowest year-end balance in the tables. The engine spreads annual costs evenly, so dark months are overstated.
Night-by-night planning figures
- Trading runs Wednesday to Saturday: 17 nights a month, 204 a year, and 10 trading months in Year 1. At the Year 3 level the week draws roughly 65 entries on Wednesday, 140 on Thursday, 215 on Friday and 268 on Saturday, which averages 172 a night (688 a week) against a licensed capacity of 320. Year 1 totals 23,674 entries, or 139 a night.
- Door cover realizes $5.25 an entry after the free-before-nine window, guest-list entries, comps and ticketed mixer attendees, who pay a ticket rather than cover. Bar spend is $31 an entry, blended after table guests, whose spend sits in the table check, and includes about $5 a head of shareable plates from a small prep kitchen run by a kitchen lead and cook, with $24,000 of kitchen equipment in the use of funds. Both figures rise 3% a year from Year 2.
- Reserved tables and bottle service average 2.5 tables a night in Year 3, mostly Friday and Saturday, at a $480 average check for bottles and mixers before gratuity. Year 1 sells 294 tables, Year 3 sells 510 and Year 5 sells 541.
- Ticketed mixers and speed-networking run on most Thursdays and on a themed Friday about once a month at first and about every other week by Year 3: 48 nights in Year 1 (about 40 Thursdays and 8 Fridays), 70 in Year 3 (about 48 Thursdays and 22 Fridays) and 74 in Year 5, at 40 attendees in Year 1 and 46 afterward and a $26 ticket. Ticket holders are counted in the blended bar spend and not charged cover.
- Private-party rentals use Sundays, Mondays and Tuesdays: 25 in Year 1, 60 in Year 3 and 66 in Year 5, at $3,600 for the room, a food-and-beverage minimum and staff. Partner and sponsor nights start at $1,000 a month in May of Year 1; no sponsor has committed.
- Attendance opens at 55% of the Year 3 level in March and reaches 92% in December. The seasonal index applies to Year 1 only, because January and February are pre-opening. It lifts spring and early fall, when visitor weekends fill the hotels, and December for holiday parties, and it eases in July, August and November. All of these are planning figures, not published statistics, and the calendar shifts from year to year. Later years are annual and claim no monthly pattern.
- Direct costs are 25% of bar sales, which includes the plates, 30% of table service and party revenue and 10% of mixer-night revenue, which blends to 22.5% of revenue. The engine applies this Year 1 blend to every year, so a line's own percentage holds only in Year 1. Distributors are paid on delivery in the model, so there are no supplier payables; the stock allowance is 1.2% of annual sales on top of the $30,000 opening order, and Year 1 ends with $43,767 of stock.
- DJs, trivia hosts and house musicians are their own line at $62,000 in Year 1 and $76,000 in Year 3, about 5.4% and 3.9% of revenue. The kitchen lead and cook is paid $40,000 a year from month 2.
- On-costs are 27% of full-time wages and 20% of part-time wages, covering payroll taxes, workers' compensation and benefits. Bartenders and table servers also earn tips, which sit outside the model, so the wages shown are only what the lounge pays directly. Tennessee has no state minimum wage law, so the federal $7.25 an hour applies (Department of Labor); the lowest planned cash wage is about $11.75 an hour, for door staff working three six-hour shifts a week. All salaried posts are paid above the federal exempt-salary floor of $684 a week ($35,568 a year), the lowest being the kitchen lead and cook at $40,000; whether each role meets the duties test, and how overtime applies, is for counsel. Pay rises add 3% a year and appear as their own line. Dana Whitfield is on payroll at $78,000; Caleb Ortiz is not paid by the lounge in the early years.
- The lease is for 4,500 sq ft at $38 per sq ft a year, all in. That is $171,000 in Year 1, with about 3% annual increases over ten years and a landlord allowance deducted from the build-out. The rate is a planning figure and looks low near an entertainment district. Insurance of $48,000 in Year 1 covers liquor liability, general liability and property, and a broker quote could move it either way. Music licensing, permits and inspections come to $9,000 in Year 1.
- Card payments at the point of sale cover nearly all sales, so receivables clear in 3 days. Card and ticketing fees are about 3% of revenue, and party invoices carry a deposit.
- The company is taxed as a C corporation at the federal rate of 21% (26 U.S.C. 11(b)). The state rate of 6.5% is Tennessee's excise tax on Tennessee taxable income, as listed on the Department of Revenue's rates page; it is separate from the sales tax, which the lounge collects from guests and does not count as revenue. The franchise tax of 0.25% of net worth is not modeled; on equity of this size it would be roughly $1,200 to $2,000 a year. The model's tax base leaves out the start-up costs and does not apply the federal 80% limit on using loss carryforwards, and both are simplifications. Depreciation runs a full 12 months in Year 1 ($61,493) although the equipment is in service from March; ten months would be about $51,200. Shareholders take $25,000, $50,000 and $75,000 in Years 3 to 5, and only from cash after loan payments.
Revenue by entry, drink, table and ticket
| Revenue stream | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Door cover | $124,290 | $174,560 | $195,431 | $207,334 | $217,696 |
| Bar sales | $733,894 | $1,030,732 | $1,153,971 | $1,224,260 | $1,285,446 |
| Bottle service and reserved tables | $141,120 | $226,930 | $259,708 | $277,990 | $292,272 |
| Ticketed mixers and speed-networking | $49,920 | $78,840 | $88,819 | $94,097 | $99,612 |
| Private-party rentals | $90,000 | $185,400 | $229,154 | $251,764 | $267,421 |
| Partner and sponsor nights | $8,000 | $14,000 | $20,000 | $24,000 | $27,000 |
| Total revenue | $1,147,224 | $1,710,462 | $1,947,083 | $2,079,445 | $2,189,447 |
| Growth on prior year | – | 49% | 14% | 7% | 5% |
The bar carries the lounge at 64% of Year 1 revenue and 59% of Year 3. Reserved tables rise from 12% to 13%, and cover slips from 11% to 10% because the door is priced to fill the room rather than fund it. Private-party rentals grow fastest, from 8% of Year 1 revenue to 12% of Year 3, because they use nights the lounge would otherwise be dark. Ticketed mixers hold at 4% to 5% of revenue and exist to bring a different guest through the door. Year 2 growth of 49% comes from twelve trading months against ten, a room that is no longer ramping, 56% more tables and twice as many parties.
Twelve months, starting with two dark ones
| Month | Door cover | Bar sales | Bottle service and reserved tables | Ticketed mixers and speed-networking | Private-party rentals | Partner and sponsor nights | Total revenue | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2027 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($84,175) |
| Feb 2027 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($84,175) |
| Mar 2027 | $8,951 | $52,855 | $10,080 | $3,120 | $3,600 | $0 | $78,606 | ($23,233) |
| Apr 2027 | $10,469 | $61,814 | $12,000 | $4,160 | $3,600 | $0 | $92,043 | ($12,815) |
| May 2027 | $11,692 | $69,037 | $13,440 | $4,160 | $7,200 | $1,000 | $106,529 | ($1,585) |
| Jun 2027 | $12,101 | $71,455 | $13,440 | $5,200 | $7,200 | $1,000 | $110,396 | $1,413 |
| Jul 2027 | $11,345 | $66,991 | $12,960 | $5,200 | $7,200 | $1,000 | $104,696 | ($3,006) |
| Aug 2027 | $11,687 | $69,006 | $13,440 | $5,200 | $7,200 | $1,000 | $107,533 | ($806) |
| Sep 2027 | $13,834 | $81,685 | $15,840 | $5,200 | $10,800 | $1,000 | $128,359 | $15,340 |
| Oct 2027 | $15,131 | $89,342 | $17,280 | $6,240 | $14,400 | $1,000 | $143,393 | $26,995 |
| Nov 2027 | $13,262 | $78,306 | $14,880 | $5,200 | $10,800 | $1,000 | $123,448 | $11,532 |
| Dec 2027 | $15,818 | $93,403 | $17,760 | $6,240 | $18,000 | $1,000 | $152,221 | $33,840 |
The January and February losses of $84,175 each are the year's annual costs divided by twelve, talent and card fees included, even though nothing has been sold. Real costs would be nearer $35,000 in January and $50,000 in February while the managers and the kitchen lead are hired, so the dark months are overstated and the trading months slightly flattered. Revenue opens at $78,606 in March. From May to August the lounge sits within about $3,000 of break-even, and June at $1,413 is the only profitable month in that stretch. September to December run well above break-even, and December leads with $152,221 of revenue and $33,840 of EBITDA. Cash reaches its low in Aug, at about $211,000, after allowing three days for card settlement. Stock ties up about $13,800 more over the year than this monthly path shows, and the reserve absorbs it.
Who works which nights
| Role | Annual wage | Starts | Year 1 end | Year 2 end | Year 3 end | Year 4 end | Year 5 end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Co-founder and general manager | $78,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kitchen lead and cook | $40,000 | Month 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bar manager | $50,000 | Month 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Events and partnerships manager | $52,000 | Month 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Security lead and door captain | $44,000 | Month 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bartender (part time) A | $19,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Bartender (part time) B | $19,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Bartender (part time) C | $19,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Bartender (part time) D | $19,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Barback (part time) A | $13,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Table server (part time) A | $10,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Table server (part time) B | $10,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Security officer (part time) A | $20,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Security officer (part time) B | $20,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Door and check-in (part time) A | $11,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Door and check-in (part time) B | $11,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Mixer host (part time) | $9,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Porter and cleaner (part time) | $9,000 | Month 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Weekend nights manager | $48,000 | Month 16 | – | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bartender (part time) E | $19,000 | Month 20 | – | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Security officer (part time) C | $20,000 | Month 22 | – | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Table server (part time) C | $10,000 | Month 28 | – | – | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Total payroll incl. on-costs | $504,595 | $623,300 | $678,840 | $681,840 | $681,840 |
Five salaried people are on payroll before opening: the general manager from month 1, and the bar manager, the events and partnerships manager, the security lead and the kitchen lead and cook from month 2. Thirteen part-time staff start in month 3, and the table counts each as half a position. A weekend nights manager joins in month 16, a fifth bartender in month 20, a third security officer in month 22 and a third table server in month 28. Hires follow attendance: the lounge adds people after the nights fill. Coverage at the Year 3 level: the bars run two bartenders on Wednesday, three on Thursday, four on Friday and five on Saturday, 14 shifts a week. The bar manager works four of them and the five part-time bartenders about two each. A shift runs from the 4:30 p.m. line-up to about 2 a.m., so $19,000 is a cash wage near $19 an hour, with tips on top. Door staff work six door shifts a week between them, one on Wednesday and Thursday and two on Friday and Saturday, and the security lead and three officers cover about six officer shifts. The general manager's salary is inside the costs, so the profit lines are what remains after she is paid.
Profit and loss
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1,147,224 | $1,710,462 | $1,947,083 | $2,079,445 | $2,189,447 |
| Direct costs (liquor, beer, mixers, bottle stock and mixer-night supplies) | ($257,801) | ($384,371) | ($437,544) | ($467,288) | ($492,007) |
| Gross profit | $889,423 | $1,326,091 | $1,509,539 | $1,612,157 | $1,697,440 |
| Payroll incl. on-costs | ($504,595) | ($623,300) | ($678,840) | ($681,840) | ($681,840) |
| Rent | ($171,000) | ($176,000) | ($181,000) | ($186,500) | ($192,000) |
| Utilities | ($36,000) | ($37,000) | ($38,000) | ($39,000) | ($40,000) |
| Marketing | ($78,000) | ($80,000) | ($84,000) | ($87,000) | ($90,000) |
| Insurance | ($48,000) | ($50,000) | ($52,000) | ($54,000) | ($56,000) |
| Professional fees | ($22,000) | ($22,000) | ($23,000) | ($24,000) | ($25,000) |
| Software subscriptions | ($14,000) | ($14,500) | ($15,000) | ($15,500) | ($16,000) |
| DJs, trivia hosts and house talent | ($62,000) | ($72,000) | ($76,000) | ($79,000) | ($82,000) |
| Card processing and ticketing fees | ($34,000) | ($50,000) | ($54,000) | ($56,000) | ($59,000) |
| Repairs, sound and lighting upkeep | ($8,000) | ($12,000) | ($14,000) | ($16,000) | ($18,000) |
| Equipment and furnishing replacement | $0 | ($8,000) | ($15,000) | ($22,000) | ($18,000) |
| Cleaning, pest control, supplies and waste | ($16,000) | ($19,000) | ($20,000) | ($21,000) | ($22,000) |
| Music licensing, permits and inspections | ($9,000) | ($9,500) | ($10,000) | ($10,500) | ($11,000) |
| Uniforms, training and background checks | ($6,000) | ($5,000) | ($5,000) | ($5,500) | ($6,000) |
| Bad debt allowance (party invoices) | ($1,500) | ($2,500) | ($3,000) | ($3,200) | ($3,400) |
| Annual pay raises (3% a year) | $0 | ($18,699) | ($41,341) | ($63,225) | ($85,577) |
| EBITDA | ($120,672) | $126,592 | $199,358 | $247,892 | $291,623 |
| Depreciation | ($61,493) | ($61,493) | ($61,493) | ($61,493) | ($61,493) |
| Interest | ($31,500) | ($29,711) | ($25,535) | ($20,899) | ($15,751) |
| Income tax | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($26,018) | ($56,028) |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($213,665) | $35,388 | $112,330 | $139,482 | $158,351 |
| Start-up costs expensed before opening (legal, licensing, pre-opening training, launch marketing) | ($114,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($327,665) | $35,388 | $112,330 | $139,482 | $158,351 |
Before start-up costs Year 1 loses $213,665, and after them $327,665. The causes are two months without sales, a ten-month ramp and $31,500 of interest. Year 2 earns $35,388, the first profit, and pays no income tax because the loss carries forward. Year 3 earns $112,330, still untaxed while the carryforward is being used. Year 4 earns $139,482 after $26,018 of tax, and Year 5 earns $158,351. EBITDA margin grows from 7.4% in Year 2 to 13.3% in Year 5 as rent and the core crew are spread over more entries, and payroll drops from 44% of revenue in Year 1 to 35% by Year 5. The tax line ignores the start-up costs and does not apply the federal 80% limit on carryforwards.
Cash movements
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | ($319,368) | $85,493 | $169,039 | $198,299 | $217,619 |
| Build-out, sound and bars | ($529,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Funding received | $1,124,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Loan principal repaid | $0 | ($37,893) | ($42,069) | ($46,706) | ($51,853) |
| Owner distributions | $0 | $0 | ($25,000) | ($50,000) | ($75,000) |
| Net change in cash | $275,632 | $47,599 | $101,969 | $101,593 | $90,766 |
| Closing cash | $275,632 | $323,231 | $425,201 | $526,794 | $617,560 |
Year 1 closes with $275,632 of cash. Build-out and equipment took $529,000, and operations drew down $319,368. Cash climbs in every later year, with principal repayments starting in month 13 and dividends in Year 3, after the opening reserve has been partly rebuilt. At the end of Year 5 cash stands at $617,560 and the loan at $121,478.
Balance sheet
| At year end | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $275,632 | $323,231 | $425,201 | $526,794 | $617,560 |
| Accounts receivable | $9,429 | $14,059 | $16,003 | $17,091 | $17,995 |
| Liquor, beer and bottle-service stock | $43,767 | $50,526 | $53,365 | $54,953 | $56,273 |
| Build-out, sound and bars (net) | $467,507 | $406,014 | $344,521 | $283,029 | $221,536 |
| Total assets | $796,335 | $793,829 | $839,090 | $881,867 | $913,364 |
| Bank loan | $300,000 | $262,107 | $220,037 | $173,331 | $121,478 |
| Paid-in capital | $824,000 | $824,000 | $824,000 | $824,000 | $824,000 |
| Retained earnings | ($327,665) | ($292,277) | ($204,947) | ($115,465) | ($32,114) |
| Total liabilities and equity | $796,335 | $793,829 | $839,090 | $881,867 | $913,364 |
Break-even, payroll share and cover
| Measure | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin | -10.5% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 13.3% |
| Net margin (before start-up costs) | -18.6% | 2.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% |
| Payroll incl. pay raises as share of revenue | 44% | 38% | 37% | 36% | 35% |
| Revenue per full-time equivalent at year end | $99,759 | $126,701 | $139,077 | $148,532 | $156,389 |
| Average monthly revenue | $95,602 | $142,539 | $162,257 | $173,287 | $182,454 |
| Monthly revenue needed to cover operating costs | $108,573 | $128,931 | $140,828 | $146,642 | $151,108 |
| Debt service cover (EBITDA / interest + principal) | -3.8x | 1.9x | 2.9x | 3.7x | 4.3x |
Year 1 averages $95,602 a month over twelve months and $114,722 over the ten trading months, against $108,573 needed to cover operating costs on a twelve-month basis, so the year falls short at the operating line. Year 2 averages $142,539 against $128,931 needed. Debt service cover is negative in Year 1 and 1.9x in Year 2, when principal repayments are under way and operating profit has arrived.
If entries and spend run 20% short
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $917,779 | $1,368,370 | $1,557,666 | $1,663,556 | $1,751,558 |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($352,581) | ($56,223) | $17,734 | $56,154 | $92,526 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($466,581) | ($56,223) | $17,734 | $56,154 | $92,526 |
| Closing cash | $141,355 | $99,621 | $126,951 | $183,251 | $264,638 |
Here every revenue line runs 20% below the base case in every year. The owners react after six months of trading, so each response starts in month 7, in July of Year 1: the general manager takes a 20% pay cut, the events manager 15%, and part-time pay falls 15% through shorter shifts. From Year 2 marketing and talent spending fall 20% and equipment replacement is halved. Hires from month 13 slip six months, the weekend nights manager and the third table server are never hired, and card fees and bad debt follow sales from the first day. Distributions fall to $6,000, $12,500 and $19,000 in Years 3 to 5, a quarter of the base case. Because the cuts start in July, Year 1 loses $352,581 before start-up costs and $466,581 after them, and equity ends the year at $357,419. Year 1's lowest month-end balance is about $139,000, in November; Year 2 closes at $99,621, the lowest balance shown, and year-end cash stays below the base case in every year. The lounge loses $56,223 in Year 2 and earns $17,734 in Year 3. Debt service cover is negative in Year 1, 0.52x in Year 2 and 1.55x in Year 3. A likely 1.25x covenant would fail in Years 1 and 2 here, and the base case is also below it in Year 1, so the owners would ask the bank for no test before month 24, with Year 1 under a holiday, and for interest-only payments through month 24; on those terms the engine puts cover at 1.11x in Year 2 and 1.35x in Year 3. The case leans on cuts the room may not tolerate: Year 2 revenue is $342,092 below the base case and EBITDA is $91,611 lower.
What the Numbers Do Under Strain
Each case below changes one input in the engine and leaves everything else, including the management response, as in the base case. Net income is after tax.
| Case | Year 2 net income | Year 3 net income | Year 5 closing cash | Year 2 debt service cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | $35,388 | $112,330 | $617,560 | 1.9x |
| Bar and door spend per entry 10% lower | ($59,460) | $6,113 | $203,072 | 0.5x |
| All revenue 10% lower | ($97,221) | ($38,624) | $568 | -0.1x |
| Bar direct cost 29% of sales instead of 25% | ($8,380) | $62,507 | $446,059 | 1.2x |
| Rent 15% higher | $8,988 | $85,180 | $517,122 | 1.5x |
| Part-time pay 15% higher | ($2,047) | $67,358 | $465,556 | 1.3x |
The margin is thin. A 10% miss on revenue with no response turns Years 2 and 3 into losses and leaves $568 of cash by Year 5, and a bar cost four points above plan takes Year 2 to a small loss. The owners would respond long before that, with the levers in the downside case.
A three-month license delay is modeled as follows. Year 1 trading shifts three months later, which cuts Year 1 revenue to $728,162. The general manager and the bar, events and security managers stay on payroll. The kitchen lead, every part-time hire and the opening stock order are held back three months. Rent, utilities, insurance and the other annual costs run as in the base case. On those terms Year 1 closes with $29,409 of cash and the lowest month-end balance is about $7,000, in July. If the staff are not held back, the same delay takes the balance to about -$49,000 in November. The reserve therefore covers a three-month delay only with a thin margin and only if hiring waits for the license. A longer delay would need a deferral of interest or a bridge from the founders, which is one reason the lease is made conditional on the license.
What a lender would still ask
- The lease: who gives the personal guarantee, whether the lease can be assigned on a sale, what it says about hours and noise, and the landlord allowance behind the build-out figure.
- The license timeline and what happens to the rent if approval comes late. The plan shows the effect on cash, not the date.
- Why borrow $300,000 at 10.5% while holding a $451,000 reserve. The loan limits the equity the founders and investors must find, and the reserve is sized to the license-delay and 20% shortfall cases rather than to the base-case low of about $211,000. By Year 5 cash of $617,560 is far above the $121,478 loan balance, so the owners would prepay in Year 4 if the lender allows it without a penalty, or take a smaller loan.
- Why the founders hold 51% for 46% of the cash ($380,000 of $824,000). The extra four points are for the concept, the lease and license work, and the full-time management Dana Whitfield provides; the investors would negotiate that split, and a preferred return is possible.
- How Caleb Ortiz is supported. He runs the finance function and works Thursday and Friday nights without a salary, so the numbers carry none of his time. A market salary would lower profit, and the lender would want a key-person plan.
- The investor terms: whether the $444,000 is common or preferred stock, whether the investors sit on a board, and what the 60-day interim-manager right means in practice.
- Evidence for $8,000 to $27,000 a year of sponsor revenue when no sponsor has committed.
- Which covenants the bank would set. A debt service cover test of 1.25x is common. Year 1 cover is negative in both the base and downside cases because EBITDA is a loss, so the first test should come after month 24, with Year 1 under a holiday. In the downside case, interest-only payments to month 24 lift Year 2 cover to 1.11x and Year 3 to 1.35x. Year 2 is still under 1.25x, so a Year 2 test would need a waiver or a lower threshold.
Where the figures could be light
- One barback for two bars and five bartenders on a Saturday looks thin. A second barback on Friday and Saturday would cost roughly $13,000 a year and is not in the figures.
- Security of a lead, two or three officers and two door staff may be light for 268 guests on a Saturday. A venue operator or insurer may ask for more, and any addition would come out of the profit lines.
- The bar manager both tends bar and manages. On a Saturday that leaves the general manager as the only manager on the floor until the weekend nights manager arrives in month 16.
- Rent of $38 a square foot all in is a planning figure and looks low for space near an entertainment district. The 15% rent case above shows the effect of a dearer lease.
- Year 1 depreciation of $61,493 runs a full 12 months although the equipment is in service from March. Ten months would be about $51,200, so Year 1 expenses are slightly overstated.
Sources
- Tennessee Alcoholic Beverage Commission, alcohol licensing: the state body that licenses on-premises liquor and wine sales. The licensing pages could not be opened while this plan was built, so no fee, eligibility rule or timeline is taken from them.
- Metropolitan Government of Nashville and Davidson County, Beer Permits Office: the Metropolitan Beer Permit Board issues beer permits and, per its FAQ, does not issue or regulate retail liquor licenses. Read only as a search-result excerpt; the page was not opened in full, so no fee or rule is taken from it.
- Tennessee Department of Revenue, due dates and tax rates: lists the excise tax at 6.5% of Tennessee taxable income and the franchise tax at 0.25% of Tennessee net worth. The page carries no effective date.
- Tennessee Department of Revenue, sales and use tax: states that the general state rate is 7% and that local rates vary by county or city. The liquor-by-the-drink tax page could not be opened, so no rate for it is quoted.
- U.S. Department of Labor, state minimum wage laws: lists Tennessee as having no state minimum wage law and the federal rate at $7.25 an hour.
- U.S. Department of Labor, Fact Sheet 17A: the salary level of $684 a week for the executive, administrative and professional exemptions.
- 26 U.S.C. 11(b), Legal Information Institute: the federal corporate rate of 21%.
- Wage rates, rent, insurance, music licensing and all revenue figures are planning figures for a fictional venue, not published statistics.
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