Looking for a cocktail bar business plan? You're in the right place.
An upscale cocktail bar asks a lender different questions from a pub or a restaurant. How much does a leased build-out and a premium back bar cost before the first drink? What happens to cash when the winter season ends and hurricane season begins? How many nights of cover and private events does the room need to carry its labor?
Below is a full sample plan for a craft cocktail bar in Miami, Florida, with a small-plates kitchen and an investor round. It covers the executive summary, the market and competing venues, the guests, the license route and every financial table through Year 5.
What you can take from it:
- The seasonal swing: see how a January opening, a winter peak and a June to September revenue trough and a September or October cash low move the numbers month by month in the first year
- The back bar and working capital: read how premium spirits tie up cash in stock and how distributor terms offset it
- The license section: see how a capped-supply Florida quota license is treated as a price and availability risk, with a planning allowance and the cost of a higher price
- The staffing plan: see which roles open the doors, which follow the high season, and what share of sales payroll takes
- The funding structure: understand how founder equity, an investor round and a bank loan share a $1,532,000 raise
- The downside case: have an answer ready for a room that runs a fifth slower, including the steps the owners take
Planning a cocktail bar, a lounge or a late-night supper room of your own? Cocktail Bliss is fictional, so keep the structure and put your own figures in it.
In this plan
To turn this example into your own cocktail bar business plan, use the cocktail bar business plan template.
Cocktail Bliss in Brief
Cocktail Bliss is an upscale craft cocktail bar in a leased, ground-floor space of about 2,400 square feet in a Miami nightlife district. It seats about 70 guests at the bar, on banquettes and on a small outdoor terrace, and opens in January 2027. Alex Martinez, a bar director with ten years in Miami hotel lounges and cocktail rooms, runs the bar. Marisol Vega, an operator with a restaurant-management background, runs the floor, the books and the staff. Four private investors hold the larger share of the equity.
The company raises $1,532,000: $292,000 from the two founders, a $780,000 round from four private investors and a $460,000 bank term loan that is subject to lender approval. That is above the roughly $1.5 million most plans in this set stay under, because of the license price and Miami build-out costs. Of that, $674,000 buys the build-out and equipment, $58,000 opening back-bar stock, $396,000 is spent before the doors open (a $215,000 alcohol-license allowance, legal work, pre-opening rent and payroll, and launch marketing) and $404,000 stays as a cash reserve. The license is the main risk: Florida caps the number of full-liquor quota licenses in each county, so availability and price are open questions, and the allowance is a planning figure.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2,018,961 | $2,517,685 | $2,790,938 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($439,234) | $174,377 | $229,224 |
| Closing cash | $375,447 | $581,044 | $693,284 |
Craft cocktails are 58% of Year 1 revenue and small plates 21%. The bar sells fewer, pricier drinks than a neighborhood room, about $81 a guest visit, and leans on private events and a Friday and Saturday late-night cover. Year 1 loses $43,234 before the opening costs and $439,234 after them. EBITDA is $75,423, positive in March, April and from October to December, and negative in January, February and from May to September.
Seasonality is the central fact of the plan. More than half of Year 1 revenue falls between November and April, and September, in the middle of hurricane season, brings in about half of December's sales. The plan also tests a room that runs 20% slower in every year: with owner and part-time pay, marketing and music cut from month 7, later hires delayed and distributions reduced, cash stays positive at every year end and the bar is profitable from Year 3, though Year 1 debt cover would be well below a likely 1.25x covenant.
The Room, the Menu and the License
Legal name: Cocktail Bliss, LLC, a Florida limited liability company. Founders: Alex Martinez (bar director) and Marisol Vega (general manager), with a four-investor round of $780,000. Premises: a leased ground-floor shell of about 2,400 square feet, on a ten-year lease with options; rent of $252,000 in Year 1, $105 a square foot all-in, is a planning figure, with no landlord allowance counted. Hours: Tuesday to Sunday, 5 p.m. to 2 a.m., with the small-plates kitchen open until midnight.
What the room holds
| Area | What is in it |
|---|---|
| Bar | A 14-seat marble-topped bar with a clear-ice program, a back bar of about 300 bottles and a short rotating list of house-made syrups and infusions |
| Floor | Banquettes and low tables for about 45 guests, soft lighting and a sound system tuned for conversation, with live jazz on two nights |
| Kitchen | A compact line for cold plates, fried bites and a few warm dishes, with a walk-in and a dish station |
| Terrace | A small outdoor area for the cooler months, with the use of the sidewalk or setback dependent on a city permit |
Revenue by line
| Line | Year 1 revenue | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Craft cocktails | $1,161,519 | 58% |
| Wine, beer and neat pours | $210,178 | 10% |
| Small plates | $424,060 | 21% |
| Private events and buyouts | $127,330 | 6% |
| Late-night cover and table minimums | $95,874 | 5% |
The license: the main risk to the plan
Florida regulates alcohol sales through the Division of Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco in the Department of Business and Professional Regulation, under chapter 561 of the Florida Statutes, and the city and county add their own permits and zoning rules. A bar that serves spirits has two routes. The first is the restaurant-based license, which under section 561.20 requires a minimum service area and seat count and at least 51% of food and beverage revenue from food and non-alcoholic drinks; the statute sets 2,000 square feet and 120 seats, and a Florida alcohol-law attorney reports a threshold of 2,500 square feet and 150 seats in Miami-Dade. Cocktail Bliss has about 2,400 square feet, about 70 seats and plates at 21% of sales, so it does not qualify. The second route is a quota license, which has no food requirement but is limited in number: section 561.20 caps the licenses in a county at one for each 7,500 residents.
Because the supply is capped, a new bar generally acquires a quota license from a current holder, and the price is set privately. The same attorney's published guidance puts it at close to $180,000 in Miami-Dade and above $500,000 in counties with fewer licenses; the market sets the price, and no figure here is a quote. The buyer still applies to the Division for approval at the specific location. The plan's allowance is $215,000: a price near the attorney's figure, plus the transfer application, legal work and city and county permits. It is a planning figure, and availability and price are the plan's main risk.
If the price is higher, the difference comes out of the reserve. At $400,000, which is $185,000 above the allowance, Year 1 closing cash falls from $375,447 to $190,447 and the lowest month from roughly $250,000 to $270,000 to roughly $65,000 to $85,000, with operating profit and Year 3 net income unchanged. The model expenses the license at opening, so the start-up line rises from $396,000 to $581,000 and Year 1 net income after start-up costs falls from ($439,234) to about ($624,234); a purchased license is a transferable asset, so the real accounting differs. Combined with the slower-room case below, Year 1 closing cash would be negative and the lowest month roughly $80,000 to $95,000 below zero. The owners would respond before signing the lease by negotiating a license contingency with the landlord, asking the seller for deferred payment and, if needed, raising more equity. A late license is the second dependency: each month without sales costs about $32,000 in rent, utilities, insurance and loan interest.
Miami After Dark
Miami has a deep supply of places to drink after dinner, from hotel lounges and rooftop terraces to club-led venues. The visitor trade is typically strongest in the cooler months, and a locally owned bar sits between two crowds: residents who want a good drink within a short drive, and visitors who book a table around a trip.
Who competes for the same evening
| Alternative | What it offers | Why a guest picks it | How Cocktail Bliss differs by design |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hotel lounges | Cocktails and food in a hotel lobby or rooftop | Convenience for guests staying there, and a known name | A single room run by its bar director, with a menu that changes with the season |
| Club-led venues | Bottle service and late-night music | A scene and a crowd | A conversation room, with cover on only two nights |
| Neighborhood bars and pubs | Beer, well drinks and a short menu | Low prices and a short walk | Premium spirits, a trained bar team and a pricier drink at a slower pace |
| Restaurant bars | A drink before or after dinner | The booking is already made | A late kitchen and a drink worth its own evening |
The table describes categories, not named rivals, and ranks none of them. Specific venues, their prices and their hours change often and are not quoted here.
Season and storm
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, according to the National Hurricane Center. That window overlaps Miami's slower summer months, and the plan treats the two together: January is the weakest month of Year 1 at $121,912 because the opening ramp is at its lowest, September is the weakest of the hurricane season at $138,580, and December peaks at $263,136. The $12,000 a year storm allowance covers preparation, closed days and recovery. A closed week at the Year 1 average costs about $39,000 of revenue, and a broker confirms windstorm and flood terms and any percentage deductible; the sensitivity cases below price a closed September week with a $40,000 deductible.
SWOT
| Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|
| A bar director with ten years in Miami cocktail rooms | One brand-new room with no regulars yet; the opening ramp is the whole of Year 1 |
| A high ticket and a late kitchen, so a slow night still pays its staff | Labor-heavy: payroll is about 41% of Year 1 revenue |
| Events and buyouts add revenue on nights the room would be empty | A deep back bar ties up stock and cash |
| Opportunities | Threats |
|---|---|
| A winter visitor trade that fills the room from November | Hurricane season and summer heat thin the room from June to September |
| Corporate and private buyouts booked well ahead | Rents and wage rules that could rise faster than menu prices |
| A menu of seasonal drinks that gives regulars a reason to return | A license that costs more than the allowance, or arrives late |
The Guests
Residents on a night out
Professionals aged about 28 to 50 who live within a short drive, go out two or three times a month and pay for a good drink and a place to sit. They come back for the bar team and a menu that changes, and they are the base that carries the summer.
Visitors and hotel guests
Couples and small groups on a trip who find the bar through reviews, a concierge or a friend. They arrive most heavily between November and April and spend more per visit, which is why the winter months carry most of the profit.
Hosts of private events
Companies, brand teams and families who book the whole room or a section for a birthday, a launch or a dinner. Events are booked at an average $7,000 minimum spend and are the most predictable revenue the bar has.
What guests ask of the bar
A well-made drink, a seat, a quiet enough room to talk and a bill that matches the menu. The average spend of about $81 a visit follows from 2.5 drinks, a plate, events and cover; a guest who feels rushed or overcharged does not return.
Selling the Evening
How a table is won
Reservations open 30 days ahead on the bar's own booking page, with a small number of bar seats held for walk-ins. A guest who books an event gets a written minimum spend and a deposit, with the terms set out before the date is held.
Where guests come from in Year 1
About 25,000 visits in Year 1, built on the opening ramp. Press and creator evenings fill the first months, then repeat visits and reviews carry the room. The founders sell events themselves from opening, and the events manager takes over the booking list from month 10 and builds a corporate buyout list through the first year. The plan does not split visits by source or count repeat guests, so the $76,000 marketing budget is tied to visits, at about $3 each, and not to acquired guests.
How prices are set
Cocktails average $22.50 in Year 1: classics at about $19 and signature drinks at about $26, built on premium spirits that cost more per pour. Wine, beer and neat pours average $19 and plates $20. Prices step 3% a year from Year 2.
Capacity
About 25,000 visits in Year 1 is roughly 80 on each of 312 open nights, and 32,000 visits in Year 3 is about 103 a night. Against about 70 seats that is roughly 1.1 turns on an average night in Year 1 and 1.5 in Year 3. The Year 3 split by night is a planning figure:
| Night | Visits | Turns of about 70 seats |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday to Thursday | about 75 | 1.1 |
| Sunday | about 90 | 1.3 |
| Friday and Saturday | about 150 | 2.1 |
Revenue per seat is about $28,800 in Year 1 and $39,900 in Year 3. That is high for a new room and rests on a ticket near $81 to $87 a visit and a Friday and Saturday cover; the standing room at the bar and the terrace carry part of the busiest nights. The lender's first test is the Friday and Saturday count, and the plan has no booking history to show it.
Staying and growing
A regulars list, a seasonal menu change each quarter and a Friday and Saturday late-night table book bring guests back. The plan counts on repeat visits and not on a rising price.
Marketing Plan
Marketing spend and what it buys
The first-year budget is $76,000: $24,000 of launch spend from start-up capital plus $52,000 of operating spend. That is 3.8% of Year 1 revenue; operating spend alone is 1.6% of Year 3 revenue, so the two percentages are not like for like. Spread over about 25,000 visits, Year 1 costs about $3 a visit.
| Channel | Year 1 spend | What it is expected to do |
|---|---|---|
| Brand, photography and menu design (launch) | $9,000 | A clear identity and a booking page that works on a phone |
| Press and creator evenings (launch) | $9,000 | Introductions to local writers and creators in the opening month |
| Opening-week program (launch) | $6,000 | A full room in the first week, with a short list of invited guests |
| Reviews and search listings | $8,000 | A complete listing on the main search and review sites |
| Hospitality partnerships | $14,000 | Concierge relationships and a short list of nearby restaurants that send guests for a late drink |
| Events marketing | $12,000 | A page, a deck and outreach to companies and planners for buyouts |
| Social content and email | $12,000 | A weekly menu post and a monthly list for regulars |
| Printing, signage and small paid campaigns | $6,000 | Local reach around slow weeks |
Marketing milestones
- January 2027: doors open, first press evenings.
- March 2027: the first winter peak, about $179,000 in monthly revenue.
- September 2027: the weakest month of hurricane season, about $139,000, with events and the regulars list holding the base.
- December 2027: the high season, about $263,000 in monthly revenue.
How the Bar Runs
The room and the lease
About 2,400 square feet on a ten-year lease, with rent at $105 a square foot all-in ($252,000 in Year 1), up 3% a year; prime nightlife districts can cost more, and the sensitivity cases test $120 and $135. The landlord's work letter, if any, is not counted. The bar's air conditioning, kitchen and ice program put utilities at $34,000.
A night behind the bar
The head bartender builds the seasonal menus and trains the team on a four-week rotation; Alex sets the direction of the menu and works the bar on busy nights. Bar backs run ice, garnish and glassware, so the bartenders stay on the drink. A door contract covers Friday and Saturday late nights, and the general manager closes out the cash and the stock count.
The back bar and the stock count
Opening stock is $58,000 and grows to about $96,000 by the end of Year 1. The bar counts the back bar weekly and tracks the cost of each drink against its price, since premium bottles are the single biggest source of cost drift. Payables are modeled at about seven days; alcohol distributors in Florida work under a delinquent-list rule that can stop sales to a late payer, and each distributor sets its own terms, which are confirmed before opening.
Systems
A point-of-sale system with reservation, inventory and tip-reporting features, accounting software and a scheduling tool. Software is $14,000 in Year 1.
Who does the work
Eight full-time and 14 part-time people at the opening, 9 and 15 by the end of Year 1, and 11 and 15 from Year 3. Each later hire follows the calendar or a busier season: the events manager before the high season, a winter bartender in month 11 who works November to April, an assistant general manager in month 27 and a sous chef in month 35.
The room is open Tuesday to Sunday from 5 p.m. to 2 a.m., and staff are on site from about 4 p.m. to a little after 2:30 a.m. Weekly coverage against the roster at the opening:
| Post | Shifts a week | Hours | Covered by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bartenders | 16 (two behind the bar Tuesday to Thursday and Sunday, four Friday and Saturday) | about 144 | Head bartender and three full-time bartenders at four shifts each; two part-time bartenders and the bar director cover leave, sickness and extra Friday and Saturday hands |
| Bar backs | 8 (one a night, two Friday and Saturday) | about 64 | Three part-time bar backs at about 20 hours each |
| Host and servers | 18 | about 117 | Five part-time host and servers at about 24 hours each |
| Cooks | 14 (kitchen open until midnight, a third cook Friday and Saturday) | about 126 | Chef de cuisine, a full-time line cook and a part-time line cook on three shifts of about 27 hours a week, with the founders and general manager covering gaps until the sous chef starts in month 35 |
| Dish and prep | 8 | about 64 | Two part-time prep and dish cooks and a dishwasher and porter at about 19 to 20 hours each |
The part-time rates follow from those hours: a bar back at $17,000 for about 1,040 hours is about $16 an hour, the part-time line cook at $22,000 for about 1,400 hours (about 27 a week, three shifts) is about $16, a prep and dish cook at $16,000 for about 990 hours is about $16, and a host and server at $16,000 for about 1,250 hours is a cash wage near $13 before tips. Florida's minimum wage reached $15.00 on September 30, 2026, with a lower cash wage allowed for tipped staff, so untipped roles sit above $15 and tipped roles above the tipped cash wage; a payroll provider confirms both, and the rates rise with the annual adjustments the state constitution sets from 2027. Hours are planning figures.
Licenses and safeguards
- The alcohol license, bought as a quota license and approved by the state for the premises, and the related county and city permits, confirmed with the regulator and counsel.
- A food-service license and a health inspection for the kitchen, with a certified food-protection manager on each shift.
- Music licensing for recorded and live music, priced by the rights organizations on the size of the room and the use of music; the music budget of $62,000 in Year 1 covers a jazz duo two nights at about $350, a DJ on Friday and Saturday at about $200 and about $4,500 of licenses, as planning figures.
- Liquor liability, property, general liability and workers' compensation insurance, budgeted at $58,000 in Year 1, with windstorm and flood terms confirmed with a broker. Key-person cover is not budgeted.
- Responsible-service training for every bartender and server, and ID checks at the door.
Vendors and advisers on call
Spirits and wine distributors, a produce and protein supplier, an equipment service company and a hospitality accountant. A second distributor is held for the main spirits so that a late delivery does not close the bar.
The Founders and Investors
Alex Martinez, bar director
Alex has ten years behind bars in Miami hotel lounges and cocktail rooms, the last four as head of a hotel lounge, and sets the menu direction. Alex and Marisol together put in the $292,000 founders' investment.
Marisol Vega, general manager
Marisol has run restaurant floors and back offices, and owns scheduling, payroll, vendor terms and the stock count. She holds the day-to-day relationship with the landlord and the bank.
Where the team is thin
Neither founder has opened a room from a bare shell, run a private-events sales book or raised money from outside investors. The plan covers these with an events manager from month 10, a hospitality attorney for the lease and the license, and quarterly investor reporting.
If a founder is out
The head bartender is the deputy for the bar and holds every recipe; Marisol is the deputy for the floor and the books. The insurance budget does not include key-person life or disability cover, and a lender may ask for it.
Investors and the bank
Four private investors put in $780,000 of common units, 73% of the $1,072,000 of equity, and the founders keep management control through the operating agreement. Distributions of $640,000 across Years 3 to 5 are paid to all members, which gives the investors about $466,000 of it by Year 5 against $780,000 invested. The distributions are larger than the earnings behind them: $640,000 against $483,803 of cumulative net income over the five years, with retained earnings still at ($156,197) at the end of Year 5, so part of what the investors receive is a return of capital funded from the unspent reserve. If revenue runs 10% lower, Year 3 net income is $93,146, below the $150,000 distribution, and the distributions would be cut first. Any preferred return, the exit and how the founders are compensated for control are for counsel and are not modeled. The bank loan carries a personal guarantee from the founders and a covenant to deliver quarterly accounts; the bank sets the covenant levels.
How the plan holds up when a figure moves
The figures below come from the same engine run with one input changed and nothing else, no management response, and distributions as in the base case. Net income is after start-up costs.
| Case | Year 1 closing cash | Year 3 net income | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | $375,447 | $229,224 | Lowest Year 1 month roughly $250,000 to $270,000 |
| License at $400,000 | $190,447 | $229,224 | Extra $185,000 from the reserve; lowest month roughly $65,000 to $85,000 |
| Rent at $120 a square foot ($288,000) | $339,447 | $201,199 | Year 1 debt cover 0.67x |
| Rent at $135 a square foot ($324,000) | $303,447 | $172,686 | Year 1 debt cover 0.06x |
| All wages 10% higher | $291,806 | $153,305 | Year 1 debt cover negative |
| Revenue 10% lower in every year | $225,242 | $93,146 | Distributions at base level would drain Year 5 cash to about $24,000, so they would be cut first |
| September week closed, $40,000 deductible | $311,724 | $229,214 | Week modeled as 23% of September revenue lost; deductible is a planning figure |
The slower-room case in the financial section is the severe version: a fifth less revenue with the owners' response from month 7.
What a lender would still ask
- Whether the license is new, acquired or under contract, what it costs against the $215,000 allowance, and what the landlord allows if it is not approved in time. The plan does not hold a purchase agreement.
- Signed or letter-of-intent lease terms, the landlord's consent and the rent per square foot, and what happens to the $440,000 build-out if the lease fails.
- A contractor's bid on the build-out. The $440,000 is about $183 a square foot, with a 10% contingency, and an overrun falls to the founders.
- Evidence for about 150 visits on a Friday and Saturday: reservation history for the founders' prior rooms, the standing capacity under the fire code and the terrace permit.
- Debt cover and covenants. Year 1 is 1.3x in the base case and negative in the slower-room case; the owners would ask for the first test on Year 2 figures.
- The SBA guarantee fee and packaging costs, if the guarantee is used, collateral beyond the equipment, and the founders' personal guarantees.
- Investor return and exit, since the investors hold 73% of the equity and receive about $466,000 of distributions by Year 5 with no preferred return modeled, and whether part of the distributions is a return of capital.
- Who sells private events until the manager starts in month 10, and the first six months of booked deposits.
The Numbers Behind the Bar
A single five-year model sits under every table in this section. The first year runs month by month because a Miami bar earns more than half its year between November and April and gives some of it back in the hot, stormy months; later years are annual. Volumes and prices come first, so each revenue line traces to a drink count, a plate count or a booking.
Build-out, stock and the opening reserve
| Use of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Build-out of a leased 2,400 sq ft ground-floor shell: bar millwork, ceiling and acoustic work, restrooms, hood tie-in, storm-rated glazing, with a 10% contingency, about $183 a square foot (landlord allowance not modeled) | $440,000 |
| Bar: ice program, glycol and keg lines, back bar, glass washer, refrigeration | $92,000 |
| Small-plates kitchen: line, ventilation tie-in, walk-in, prep and dish | $68,000 |
| Furniture, lighting, sound system, art and outdoor seating | $62,000 |
| Point of sale, reservations hardware, cameras, ID scanner | $12,000 |
| Opening back bar: premium spirits, liqueurs, wine, bitters and house-made syrup stock, plus food and smallwares | $58,000 |
| Alcohol license (a quota license bought from a current holder, plus the state transfer application and city and county permits): a planning allowance, not a quote | $215,000 |
| Legal and accounting: lease, entity, investor documents, loan and license applications | $32,000 |
| Pre-opening: three months of rent and utilities during build-out, insurance, hiring and training shifts, menu development | $125,000 |
| Launch: brand, photography, press and creator evenings, opening-week program | $24,000 |
| Cash reserve for the opening ramp and the summer cash low | $404,000 |
| Total uses | $1,532,000 |
| Source of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Founders: Alex Martinez and Marisol Vega | $292,000 |
| Investor round: four private investors, common units | $780,000 |
| Bank term loan (an SBA guarantee may apply; subject to approval) | $460,000 |
| Total sources | $1,532,000 |
The founders put in $292,000 and four private investors $780,000, which makes $1,072,000 of equity, 70% of the $1,532,000 raised. That is above the roughly $1.5 million most plans in this set stay under, and the extra comes from the license price and a build-out cost that reflects Miami construction rates. A bank term loan of $460,000 covers the rest: a ten-year term at a planning rate of 9.5%, with the first six months on interest only. Pricing, tenor, any guarantee and credit approval rest with the lender. Of the total, $674,000 buys the build-out and equipment, $58,000 is opening back-bar stock, $396,000 is expensed before the doors open (the license allowance of $215,000, legal work, three months of pre-opening rent and payroll, and launch marketing) and $404,000 stays as a reserve. The license is the largest uncertain item: Florida caps the number of quota licenses in each county, so availability and price decide whether the $215,000 allowance holds. It is a planning figure, not a quote, and the license section and the sensitivity cases show the plan with a price near $400,000. The lowest month-end cash balance, in September or October 2027, is roughly $250,000 to $270,000; that is an approximation, taken from the engine's monthly series after deducting the year's interest to date (the series leaves interest out), with the lower end also allowing for three days of card receivables. A license that arrives late would cost about $32,000 a month in rent, utilities, insurance and loan interest with no sales behind it, so a slip of more than a few months would call for a bank deferral or more equity.
Drinks, plates and costs behind each line
- Craft cocktails average $22.50 in Year 1, a blend of $19 classics and $26 signature drinks built on premium spirits; that is a planning price for a Miami room positioned above hotel-lounge pricing, and the sensitivity cases do not include a price cut. The bar sells 51,623 in Year 1 (about 165 on each of roughly 312 open nights), 62,000 in Year 2 and 66,000 in Year 3 (about 211 a night) at $23.87 after two 3% menu steps. Wine by the glass, beer and neat pours of rare spirits add 11,062 drinks at $19 in Year 1 and 14,500 in Year 3.
- Guests order about 2.5 drinks a visit, which puts Year 1 at roughly 25,000 visits, or 80 a night, and an average spend near $81 including plates, events and cover. By Year 3 the bar serves about 32,000 visits, 103 a night, at about $87. Against about 70 seats that is roughly 1.5 turns on an average night in Year 3 (1.1 in Year 1), with Tuesday to Thursday near 1.1 turns and Friday and Saturday near 2.1. That is $39,900 of Year 3 revenue per seat, a high figure for a new room and the first thing a lender would test; it rests on the ticket, which is the plan's main difference from a neighborhood bar: fewer, pricier drinks and a seat for the evening.
- Small plates (charcuterie, crudo, fried bites, a few warm dishes) sell 21,203 in Year 1 at $20, about 68 a night, and 28,500 in Year 3 at $21.22. Private events and buyouts are booked at an average $7,000 minimum spend: about 18 bookings' worth in Year 1 while the room builds, then 24, 27, 28 and 28. Late-night cover and table minimums on Friday and Saturday add $95,874 in Year 1 and $118,000 in Year 3. Growth flattens after Year 3 because the room is close to full on its busiest nights.
- The seasonal index runs from 1.22 in March, when demand peaks, to 0.70 in September, in the middle of hurricane season; February is 1.18 and July and August about 0.77. The room opens in January and the opening ramp (50% of mature volume in month 1, 100% by month 12) is layered on top, so March revenue is 1.06 times the Year 1 monthly average and January, with the ramp at its lowest, is the weakest month of the year at $121,912. September, at $138,580, is the weakest month of the hurricane season. Years 2 to 5 are annual and make no monthly claim.
- Direct costs are 21% of cocktail sales, 27% of wine, beer and neat pours, 31% of plates, 25% of events and 8% of cover and table minimums. Beverage cost is 22% of drink sales in Year 1 and all direct costs are 23.4% of revenue. The engine applies the Year 1 blend to every year, so each line's own percentage holds only in Year 1. Premium bottles cost more per pour, and the cocktail price is set to carry them.
- Opening back-bar stock is $58,000. The model then holds stock at 8% of a year's direct costs on top of that (about a month of cost), which takes inventory to $95,730 at the end of Year 1 and $115,810 in Year 5. Payables run about 7 days of direct costs, a planning figure. Florida's delinquent-list rule (r. 61A-3.035) bars distributors from selling to a retailer that has fallen behind on payment, which points to short alcohol terms, and each distributor sets its own; food vendors may allow longer. If distributors insist on payment at delivery the payables shrink and the reserve absorbs the difference.
- Payroll on-costs are 27% for full-time staff and 20% for part-time staff. Wages shown are base pay; tips come from guests and are not a plan cost. Florida's minimum wage reached $15.00 an hour on September 30, 2026 under Article X, section 24 of the state constitution, with a smaller cash wage allowed for tipped staff and annual inflation adjustments after that, so untipped roles are set at or above $15 an hour and tipped roles above the tipped cash wage, on the hours in the staffing table, and the plan holds its 3% annual raises separately. The lowest salaried role is $46,000, above the federal salary floor for exempt managers as it stood when the plan was written, but that floor has been changed by rulemaking and litigation and a payroll provider confirms it. Wages plus raises absorb 41% of Year 1 revenue and 36% by Year 3, high for a bar because the room staffs ten hours a night and the managers are salaried.
- Rent is $252,000 in Year 1 for 2,400 square feet, $105 a square foot all-in, rising 3% a year; that is a planning figure for a ground-floor shell in a nightlife district, and prime Miami districts can cost more, so the sensitivity cases test $120 and $135. The build-out of $440,000 is about $183 a square foot including storm-rated glazing, acoustic work and a 10% contingency, also a planning figure that a contractor's bid would replace. Utilities are $34,000 because air conditioning runs most of the year. Insurance of $58,000 covers liquor liability, property, general liability and workers' compensation; windstorm and flood terms and any percentage deductible vary by building and a broker confirms them, and key-person cover is not budgeted. The $12,000 storm allowance is for preparation, closed days and recovery; a closed week at the Year 1 average costs about $39,000 of revenue.
- Music is $62,000 in Year 1: a jazz duo two nights a week at about $350 a night, a DJ on Friday and Saturday at about $200 a night and about $4,500 of performing-rights licenses, all planning figures; the licenses are priced by the rights organizations on the size of the room and how the music is used, and quotes are taken before opening.
- The alcohol license and the related permits are a $215,000 planning allowance. Renewals and inspections are budgeted at $5,500 a year. See the license section for why the plan budgets a quota license and what a higher price does to the opening reserve.
- Card settlement takes about three days, so receivables are small. The model taxes the company at 21% federal (26 U.S.C. 11(b)) and 5.5% for Florida as a simplification; the state rate matches the corporate income tax rate the Florida Department of Revenue publishes for tax years beginning on or after January 1, 2022. The tax base leaves out the start-up costs and applies no federal 80% limit on loss carryforwards, so tax in the early years is overstated. A purchased quota license is a transferable asset; the model expenses its allowance at opening with the other start-up costs, which overstates the Year 1 loss, and an adviser decides the treatment. An LLC is pass-through by default, so its members would report profit on their own returns unless it elects corporate treatment. Florida's state sales tax rate is 6%, with county surtaxes on top; sales tax is collected from guests, passed on and excluded from revenue.
- Owner distributions of $150,000, $220,000 and $270,000 are paid in Years 3 to 5, each below that year's net income but together above the five-year cumulative net income of $483,803, from cash the model shows as spare after loan payments and a storm reserve. The loan is not repaid early.
Where the sales come from
| Revenue stream | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craft cocktails | $1,161,519 | $1,436,850 | $1,575,437 | $1,671,872 | $1,747,352 |
| Wine, beer and neat pours | $210,178 | $264,195 | $292,278 | $311,427 | $327,185 |
| Small plates | $424,060 | $535,600 | $604,713 | $644,709 | $675,305 |
| Private events and buyouts | $127,330 | $173,040 | $200,510 | $214,174 | $220,600 |
| Late-night cover and table minimums | $95,874 | $108,000 | $118,000 | $121,000 | $123,000 |
| Total revenue | $2,018,961 | $2,517,685 | $2,790,938 | $2,963,182 | $3,093,442 |
| Growth on prior year | – | 25% | 11% | 6% | 4% |
Drinks are 68% of Year 1 revenue, with cocktails alone 58%. Plates are 21%, events 6% and cover and table minimums 5%. Events and late-night cover earn the most per guest, and both follow the winter calendar.
Month by month through the first year
| Month | Craft cocktails | Wine, beer and neat pours | Small plates | Private events and buyouts | Late-night cover and table minimums | Total revenue | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2027 | $70,560 | $12,768 | $25,760 | $7,000 | $5,824 | $121,912 | ($29,226) |
| Feb 2027 | $86,243 | $15,599 | $31,480 | $12,180 | $7,118 | $152,620 | ($5,691) |
| Mar 2027 | $101,453 | $18,354 | $37,040 | $13,860 | $8,374 | $179,081 | $14,589 |
| Apr 2027 | $97,898 | $17,708 | $35,740 | $10,360 | $8,081 | $169,787 | $7,466 |
| May 2027 | $90,720 | $16,416 | $33,120 | $11,200 | $7,488 | $158,944 | ($844) |
| Jun 2027 | $85,680 | $15,504 | $31,280 | $5,950 | $7,072 | $145,486 | ($11,159) |
| Jul 2027 | $86,490 | $15,656 | $31,580 | $6,160 | $7,139 | $147,025 | ($9,979) |
| Aug 2027 | $86,175 | $15,599 | $31,460 | $6,300 | $7,114 | $146,648 | ($10,268) |
| Sep 2027 | $81,135 | $14,687 | $29,620 | $6,440 | $6,698 | $138,580 | ($16,451) |
| Oct 2027 | $98,145 | $17,765 | $35,840 | $13,300 | $8,102 | $173,152 | $10,045 |
| Nov 2027 | $128,340 | $23,218 | $46,860 | $13,580 | $10,592 | $222,590 | $47,934 |
| Dec 2027 | $148,680 | $26,904 | $54,280 | $21,000 | $12,272 | $263,136 | $79,008 |
Revenue opens at $121,912 in January, reaches $179,081 in March, slips to $138,580 in September and peaks at $263,136 in December, almost twice the September figure. EBITDA is negative in January and February and again from May to September, then climbs to $47,934 in November and $79,008 in December. Founders carry the bar through those months from the reserve, and the lowest cash balance falls in September or October. The monthly view spreads each year's annual costs evenly, so the pre-opening months and the timing of the downside are approximate.
The bar team and start months
| Role | Annual wage | Starts | Year 1 end | Year 2 end | Year 3 end | Year 4 end | Year 5 end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owner and bar director | $72,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| General manager | $66,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Head bartender | $60,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Chef de cuisine, small plates | $60,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bartender A | $38,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bartender B | $38,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bartender C | $38,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bartender D (part time) | $22,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Bartender E (part time) | $22,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Bar back A (part time) | $17,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Bar back B (part time) | $17,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Host and server A (part time) | $16,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Host and server B (part time) | $16,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Line cook (full time) | $38,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Prep and dish A (part time) | $16,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Prep and dish B (part time) | $16,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Line cook B (part time) | $22,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Bar back C (part time) | $17,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Host and server D (part time) | $16,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Host and server E (part time) | $16,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Dishwasher and porter (part time) | $17,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Host and server C (part time) | $16,000 | Month 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Events and reservations manager | $52,000 | Month 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bartender F (part time, winter season) | $20,000 | Month 11 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Assistant general manager | $52,000 | Month 27 | – | – | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sous chef | $46,000 | Month 35 | – | – | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Total payroll incl. on-costs | $836,410 | $893,940 | $958,710 | $1,018,400 | $1,018,400 |
The bar opens with 22 roles: eight full time (the owner and bar director, a general manager, a head bartender, a chef de cuisine, three bartenders and a line cook) and 14 part time (two bartenders, three bar backs, five host and servers, a second line cook, two prep and dish cooks and a dishwasher and porter). The founders sell events until the events and reservations manager starts in month 10, ahead of the high season, and a part-time winter bartender starts in month 11 and works November to April each year, shown at an annual-equivalent $20,000 and paid for six months. An assistant general manager joins in month 27 and a sous chef in month 35. That is 9 full-time and 15 part-time people at the end of Year 1 and of Year 2, and 11 and 15 from Year 3.
Profit and loss
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2,018,961 | $2,517,685 | $2,790,938 | $2,963,182 | $3,093,442 |
| Direct costs (spirits, wine, mixers, garnish and food) | ($471,628) | ($588,130) | ($651,961) | ($692,198) | ($722,626) |
| Gross profit | $1,547,333 | $1,929,555 | $2,138,977 | $2,270,984 | $2,370,816 |
| Payroll incl. on-costs | ($836,410) | ($893,940) | ($958,710) | ($1,018,400) | ($1,018,400) |
| Rent | ($252,000) | ($260,000) | ($268,000) | ($276,000) | ($284,000) |
| Utilities | ($34,000) | ($35,000) | ($36,000) | ($37,000) | ($38,000) |
| Marketing | ($52,000) | ($44,000) | ($45,000) | ($46,000) | ($47,000) |
| Insurance | ($58,000) | ($60,000) | ($62,000) | ($64,000) | ($66,000) |
| Professional fees | ($16,000) | ($16,500) | ($17,000) | ($17,500) | ($18,000) |
| Software subscriptions | ($14,000) | ($14,500) | ($15,000) | ($15,500) | ($16,000) |
| Card processing fees | ($43,000) | ($57,000) | ($62,000) | ($65,000) | ($67,000) |
| Door and security contract (Friday and Saturday late nights) | ($36,000) | ($38,000) | ($40,000) | ($41,000) | ($42,000) |
| Music: jazz duo two nights, DJ Friday and Saturday, performing-rights licenses | ($62,000) | ($64,000) | ($65,500) | ($67,000) | ($69,000) |
| Ice program, garnish, glassware and smallwares breakage | ($26,000) | ($34,000) | ($37,000) | ($39,000) | ($41,000) |
| Cleaning, linen, paper and kitchen supplies | ($13,000) | ($16,000) | ($17,000) | ($18,000) | ($19,000) |
| Repairs, line cleaning and equipment service | ($9,000) | ($13,000) | ($15,000) | ($16,000) | ($17,000) |
| Hurricane preparation, storm closure and recovery allowance | ($12,000) | ($12,000) | ($12,000) | ($12,000) | ($12,000) |
| License renewals, permits and inspections | ($5,500) | ($5,800) | ($6,000) | ($6,200) | ($6,400) |
| Bad debt, event-deposit disputes and cash-over-short | ($3,000) | ($4,000) | ($4,500) | ($4,800) | ($5,000) |
| Annual pay raises (3% a year) | $0 | ($26,818) | ($58,385) | ($94,433) | ($127,818) |
| EBITDA | $75,423 | $334,997 | $419,882 | $433,151 | $477,198 |
| Depreciation | ($75,257) | ($75,257) | ($75,257) | ($75,257) | ($75,257) |
| Interest | ($43,400) | ($40,841) | ($37,580) | ($33,996) | ($30,056) |
| Income tax | $0 | ($44,522) | ($77,820) | ($82,092) | ($94,254) |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($43,234) | $174,377 | $229,224 | $241,806 | $277,630 |
| Start-up costs expensed at opening (license, legal, pre-opening rent and payroll, launch marketing) | ($396,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($439,234) | $174,377 | $229,224 | $241,806 | $277,630 |
Before the opening costs Year 1 loses $43,234; once the $396,000 spent ahead of opening is charged, the year closes $439,234 down. EBITDA is $75,423, 3.7% of revenue. Year 2 earns $174,377, Year 3 $229,224 and Year 5 $277,630. EBITDA margin rises from 3.7% to 13.3% in Year 2 as the ramp rolls off and to 15.4% by Year 5, which is the high end for a late-night cocktail bar. Prime cost, direct costs plus payroll and raises, is 65% of Year 1 revenue and 60% in Year 3. Tax is computed on profit before the opening costs and with no limit on loss carryforwards, a simplification an adviser would refine.
Cash in and out
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | ($467,257) | $238,449 | $298,353 | $313,200 | $349,966 |
| Bar, kitchen and build-out | ($674,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Funding received | $1,532,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Loan principal repaid | ($15,296) | ($32,852) | ($36,113) | ($39,697) | ($43,636) |
| Owner distributions | $0 | $0 | ($150,000) | ($220,000) | ($270,000) |
| Net change in cash | $375,447 | $205,597 | $112,240 | $53,504 | $36,330 |
| Closing cash | $375,447 | $581,044 | $693,284 | $746,788 | $783,117 |
Closing cash is $375,447 at the end of Year 1, after $674,000 of build-out and equipment, $467,257 absorbed by operations (including $95,730 of back-bar stock on hand at year end and the $396,000 of start-up costs) and $15,296 of loan principal. It then rises to $783,117 by Year 5, against $292,406 of loan still outstanding, with distributions of $150,000, $220,000 and $270,000 in Years 3 to 5. The balance is larger than the base case strictly needs, and that is deliberate: the reserve is sized to the downside, where the thinnest month holds only roughly $90,000 to $105,000, and a bar on the Atlantic coast also wants cash for a closed week or an insurance deductible. Early loan repayment is not modeled.
Balance sheet
| At year end | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $375,447 | $581,044 | $693,284 | $746,788 | $783,117 |
| Accounts receivable | $16,594 | $20,693 | $22,939 | $24,355 | $25,426 |
| Back-bar spirits, wine and kitchen stock | $95,730 | $105,050 | $110,157 | $113,376 | $115,810 |
| Bar, kitchen and build-out (net) | $598,743 | $523,486 | $448,229 | $372,971 | $297,714 |
| Total assets | $1,086,514 | $1,230,274 | $1,274,609 | $1,257,490 | $1,222,067 |
| Distributor and food-vendor payables | $9,045 | $11,279 | $12,503 | $13,275 | $13,859 |
| Bank term loan | $444,704 | $411,852 | $375,739 | $336,042 | $292,406 |
| Paid-in capital | $1,072,000 | $1,072,000 | $1,072,000 | $1,072,000 | $1,072,000 |
| Retained earnings | ($439,234) | ($264,857) | ($185,633) | ($163,827) | ($156,197) |
| Total liabilities and equity | $1,086,514 | $1,230,274 | $1,274,609 | $1,257,490 | $1,222,067 |
Prime cost, break-even and debt cover
| Measure | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin | 3.7% | 13.3% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 15.4% |
| Net margin (before start-up costs) | -2.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% |
| Payroll incl. pay raises as share of revenue | 41% | 37% | 36% | 38% | 37% |
| Revenue per full-time equivalent at year end | $122,361 | $152,587 | $150,862 | $160,172 | $167,213 |
| Average monthly revenue | $168,247 | $209,807 | $232,578 | $246,932 | $257,787 |
| Monthly revenue needed to cover operating costs | $160,046 | $173,382 | $186,923 | $199,834 | $205,899 |
| Debt service cover (EBITDA / interest + principal) | 1.3x | 4.5x | 5.7x | 5.9x | 6.5x |
The bar needs about $160,046 of revenue a month to cover operating costs in Year 1 and averages $168,247, but only March, April and October to December clear that line. Year 3 needs $186,923 against $232,578, a cushion of about 20%. Debt service cover is 1.3x in Year 1, which carries the opening ramp and six interest-only months, and 4.5x in Year 2. That clears a likely 1.25x covenant only narrowly in Year 1; a lender may set the first test on Year 2 figures. Rent is 12.5% of Year 1 revenue and 9.6% in Year 3.
A room that runs a fifth slower
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1,615,169 | $2,014,148 | $2,232,750 | $2,370,546 | $2,474,754 |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($268,921) | ($49) | $120,768 | $141,310 | $117,971 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($664,921) | ($49) | $120,768 | $141,310 | $117,971 |
| Closing cash | $158,816 | $192,225 | $312,234 | $431,015 | $503,270 |
This case takes a fifth off every revenue line in every year, a slower room and a quieter season together; it does not model a named storm, which the sensitivity cases price separately. The owners react after six months of trading, so the pay and cost responses start in month 7. From July both founders take 20% less, part-time pay drops about a quarter through shorter shifts and a thinner floor, marketing falls 20%, music spend falls 40%, and utilities, card fees, ice and cleaning track the lighter volume. Hires scheduled from month 13 slip six months, which moves the sous chef to month 41, and the assistant general manager post is never filled. Distributions fall to $35,000, $55,000 and $75,000 in Years 3 to 5 against $150,000, $220,000 and $270,000 in the base case. Because the cuts start in July, Year 1 closes $664,921 down after the opening costs and equity at the end of the year is $407,079. The thinnest month, October of Year 1, holds roughly $90,000 to $105,000 on the same approximate method as the base case, and year-end cash never falls below $158,816 and stays below the base case in every year. Year 2 only breaks even, with a loss of $49, and the first real profit comes in Year 3, at $120,768. That recovery leans on the cuts: Year 2 revenue is $503,537 lower than the base case but EBITDA only $218,948 lower, so about $167,000 of savings has to be found, and a thinner roster would be hard to hold. Debt service cover is negative in Year 1 because EBITDA is a loss of $150,264, then 1.57x in Year 2 and 3.2x to 3.5x after that. Year 1 would fail a 1.25x covenant, so the owners would ask the bank to start testing in Year 2 and, if the room runs slow, for six more months of interest-only payments. Years 2 to 5 show only year-end cash, so Year 2's summer low would sit below the figure shown. The lease is taken as written here; asking the landlord for relief would be the next step.
Sources
- Florida Statutes, section 561.20: the quota limit of one license for each 7,500 residents in a county, and the restaurant license requirements (service area, seats and the 51% food and non-alcoholic share).
- GrayRobinson alcohol-law team, Top questions to ask before you sign a lease for your Florida restaurant or bar: the 2,500 square foot and 150-seat threshold in Miami-Dade, and a Miami-Dade quota license price of close to $180,000. The article is undated and prices move; no figure in the plan is a quote.
- Florida Constitution, Article X, section 24: the $15.00 minimum wage on September 30, 2026, inflation adjustments from 2027 and the tip credit.
- Florida Department of Revenue, Sales and use tax: the 6% state rate; county surtaxes are set by county.
- Florida Department of Revenue, Corporate income tax: the 5.5% rate for tax years beginning on or after January 1, 2022.
- 26 U.S.C. section 11(b): the 21% federal corporate rate.
- National Hurricane Center, NOAA, Climatology: the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
- Florida Administrative Code, rule 61A-3.035: the delinquent list for retailers behind on payment to alcohol distributors.
- Music licensing fees, rent per square foot, insurance premiums, windstorm deductibles, distributor terms and wage hours are planning figures to confirm with the rights organizations, a broker, an agent, distributors and a payroll provider before opening. The federal salary floor for exempt employees is set by Department of Labor rule and has changed through litigation, so a payroll provider confirms it.
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