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A brewery that cans beer, sells through a distributor and runs its own bar has to answer questions a lender or an investor will ask in the first meeting. What does the canning line cost, and who pays for it? How much of the revenue depends on a distributor you do not control? How many months does the building sit idle before the first pint is poured? A blank template will not show you what a believable answer looks like.
This article walks through a complete sample plan for a production brewery in Kansas City, Missouri, section by section. It covers the executive summary, the SWOT analysis and, above all, the financials, so you can see how a plan like this fits together before you write your own.
Here's what you'll take away:
- The executive summary: see how to put equipment, three sales channels and a loan on one page, so a reader knows what the brewery needs and what it earns back
- The SWOT analysis: learn how to name a distributor dependency and a thin management bench plainly, without putting a reader off
- The start-up budget: find out how a canning line, a cellar and a keg fleet divide a raise, and how large a reserve the first year really takes
- The first year, month by month: spot the four months with no sales and the summer lift before you set your own opening date
- The channel mix: compare what a barrel earns in cans, in kegs and over the bar, and see how that ratio sets your margin
- The five-year profit, cash flow and balance sheet: understand how stock, supplier terms and a ten-year equipment loan show up in the numbers
- The downside case: have an answer ready for "what if every sales line runs 20% short?", with the steps the owner takes in response
- The stress tests and the lender questions: see which single input, from the pack price to the taproom, hurts debt cover most, and which questions to expect before you sit down with a bank
If you are planning a production brewery, read this before you draft your own. The business is fictional, so keep what fits your plan and change the rest.
In this plan
- Anchor Terrace in Brief
- The Brewhouse and the Terrace
- Beer Sales in Kansas City
- Who Buys the Beer
- Getting Beer onto Shelves and Taps
- Building the Brand Around the Taproom
- Running the Brewhouse
- Who Runs It
- What Anchor Terrace Costs to Build and Run
- Stress Tests and What a Lender Would Still Ask
- Sources
To turn this example into your own brewery business plan, use the brewery business plan template.
Anchor Terrace in Brief
Anchor Terrace is a production brewery with a taproom and a terrace in a leased 9,000-square-foot warehouse in Kansas City, Missouri. It brews 15 barrels at a time, packages beer in 16-ounce cans and half-barrel kegs for sale through one licensed distributor, and pours the same beer over its own bar. Dana Whitcomb, the founder and head brewer, owns 55% of the company. Two local investors own 45%.
The brewery raises $1,500,000: $980,000 of equity and a $520,000 ten-year equipment loan. Of that, $741,000 buys the brewhouse, cellar, canning line and taproom equipment and pays for the building work to carry them. Another $88,000 pays for the opening keg fleet and first ingredients, $60,500 covers permits, legal work and the launch, and $610,500 is held as a reserve.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $506,150 | $1,280,650 | $1,673,750 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($419,343) | ($62,927) | $68,017 |
| Closing cash | $295,785 | $259,668 | $333,962 |
January to April are pre-opening months: the equipment arrives and is commissioned, the first brews go into the tanks in April and the staff are trained. The taproom opens in May 2027, and packaged beer and kegs begin shipping to the distributor in July. Year 1 loses money because most of a year's fixed costs, rent and interest meets only eight months of taproom sales and six of distribution. Year 2 earns $64,561 before depreciation and interest and still shows a net loss. Year 3 is the first profitable year, at a net margin of 4.1%.
The plan tests itself. In the downside case, every revenue line runs 20% below plan. Nine months into the plan, the owner takes a pay cut, hiring is pushed back and three roles are dropped, marketing and overheads are trimmed and nothing is paid out to owners. Cash is still positive at every year end, though debt cover falls below a likely lender covenant in Years 2 and 3.
The idea is simple and the ratio behind it is the point. A barrel sold in cans brings about $471, a barrel in kegs $300, and a barrel poured or packed to go at the taproom about $1,440, roughly three times the cans. The distributor builds the brand and the volume. The taproom makes most of the margin.
The Brewhouse and the Terrace
Legal name: Anchor Terrace Brewing Company, LLC, a Missouri limited liability company. Owners: Dana Whitcomb (55%) and two local investors (45% together). Premises: 9,000 square feet of leased warehouse space with a taproom, a covered terrace and a loading dock, on a ten-year lease. Start date: January 2027. First brews in April, taproom opening in May, distributor shipments from July. Equipment: a reconditioned 15-barrel steam-fired brewhouse, six 30-barrel fermenters, two 30-barrel brite tanks, and a canning line with rinser, filler, seamer and date coder.
What the brewery is for
The brewery makes a core range of five or six beers in volume, puts them in cans and kegs that a distributor can carry to liquor stores, grocers and bars across the Kansas City area, and keeps a taproom where the same beer sells at the full retail price and where new recipes are tried before they are canned.
Four ways it earns
| Channel | How it is priced | Year 1 share of revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Packaged beer through the distributor | $7.60 a four-pack of 16-ounce cans, the plan's own price until the distributor quotes | 21% |
| Kegs through the distributor | $150 a half-barrel keg, brewer's price | 6% |
| Taproom pints and takeaway | $20.50 a visit in Year 1 | 69% |
| Private events, terrace rental and merchandise | Rental and per-event fees, merchandise at retail | 4% |
Shares are rounded. By Year 3 the taproom is 48% of revenue and packaged beer 37%. The mix shifts toward distribution because the taproom is limited by seats, hours and the terrace, while cans are limited only by what the distributor can place.
What the first three years should show
- 226 barrels of cans and 94 of kegs shipped to the distributor in the first six months of distribution, reaching about 2,800 packs a month by December 2027.
- 1,685 barrels brewed and sold in 2028, with the brewery earning $64,561 before depreciation and interest and paying that interest from its own sales.
- A second brewer and a keg technician on the team by the end of 2029, funded by sales and not by a second raise.
- Principal repayments on the equipment loan beginning in January 2029 at a debt service cover of about 2.1x.
Permits and the three tiers
A brewery that sells to a distributor and pours on its own premises holds several licenses at once. At the federal level the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau registers brewers, collects beer excise tax and, depending on where the beer is sold, approves labels. At the state level, Missouri's Division of Alcohol and Tobacco Control issues the state licenses. The City of Kansas City licenses the premises, and the local health department covers any food sold. Fees, bonding rules and timelines differ by license and change, so the $7,500 in the budget is a planning figure, and Dana's lawyer confirms which licenses are needed, and in which order, before equipment is ordered.
Approvals sit on the critical path. The plan allows four months before the taproom opens, and each month of delay costs about $53,000 of fixed cost with no sales, the even monthly share the model gives to Year 1 costs. The $610,500 reserve is sized to absorb a slip of a few months and not a year. In the stress test below, a three-month slip leaves Year 1 closing cash at $141,564 with equity still positive.
In many states alcohol sales are split into three tiers: producers, wholesalers and retailers. Under that structure a brewery generally sells packaged beer to a licensed wholesaler, who sells to stores and bars. The plan follows that structure and does not rely on selling to retailers directly. Distributor agreements can be hard to end under state law, so counsel reviews the written terms of territory, term and termination before signature, and the plan treats the relationship as long-lived. Whether a brewery of this size may also sell directly to retailers in Missouri is a question for counsel, and the plan does not count on it.
Beer Sales in Kansas City
Where a production brewery sits
A production brewery with a taproom sits between manufacturing and hospitality, and a lender will read its numbers through both lenses. From manufacturing it takes capital intensity, stock and supplier terms. From hospitality it takes the labor and occupancy cost of an open room. The plan applies its own test of prime cost, direct costs plus all wages, under 65% of revenue; it is not a published lending standard. Direct costs run 19.6% of revenue and payroll with pay raises 42% to 45% from Year 2, so prime cost is about 62% to 65%, with little room left in Years 4 and 5.
The Kansas City area has an established craft-beer scene, and a new brewery meets four kinds of competitor. Plans and prices change often and are not quoted here.
| Alternative | What it offers | Why a buyer picks it | How Anchor Terrace differs by design |
|---|---|---|---|
| Established regional production breweries | Wide shelf presence, long distributor relationships | Familiar names, reliable supply | A newer brand with a taproom that changes its pour list |
| National craft and import brands | Scale, heavy promotion, consistent price | Habit and promotion | A local brand sold in one market, with a room people can visit |
| Taproom-only breweries | Small batches, rotating menu | Novelty and a neighborhood room | Packaged volume, so the beer is available away from the bar |
| Other drinks in the cold box | Seltzer, canned cocktails, wine | Variety and price | Beer drinkers who want local beer at the shelf |
The table describes what each alternative offers and how this brewery positions itself, not a ranking.
What a barrel earns in each channel
A barrel of 31 gallons fills about 248 pints or 62 four-packs of 16-ounce cans. At Year 1 prices the same barrel earns different revenue depending on where it ends up. The taproom figure counts both pints and the four-packs that about a third of visits take away, which together use about 0.0142 barrels a visit against a $20.50 average ticket.
| Where the barrel goes | Revenue per barrel, Year 1 | Share of Year 1 barrels | Share of Year 1 revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cans to the distributor | about $471 | 40% | 21% |
| Kegs to the distributor | $300 | 17% | 6% |
| Poured or packed to go at the taproom | about $1,440 | 43% | 69% |
Events and merchandise, 4% of Year 1 revenue, are outside the barrel count. This ratio is the reason the plan keeps a taproom at a production brewery. Cans carry the brand and the volume. The bar supplies most of the gross profit that pays for the brewing crew.
SWOT
| Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|
| A taproom that turns a barrel into about three times the revenue it earns in cans | One distributor carries 46% of Year 3 revenue and half of Year 5 |
| A canning line that runs about one day a week in Year 5, with room to grow | Dana is both head brewer and general manager until the first hires |
| Equity covers 65% of the funding, so the loan is serviceable | No operating history and no distributor purchase orders yet |
| Opportunities | Threats |
|---|---|
| Events on the terrace that fill slow weeknights | Ingredient, can and aluminum price swings |
| A second distributor territory once the first is steady | A distributor that gives the brand little attention |
| Spare line time for neighbor brands, if the licensing allows it | A summer of bad weather or a change in licensing or excise rules |
Who Buys the Beer
The neighborhood and downtown taproom guest
A guest between 25 and 55, the plan's target group, who lives or works within a short drive, comes for a pint after work or at the weekend, and buys a four-pack or a crowler on the way out. About 2.2 pints a visit, a four-pack to go on a third of visits, and a $20.50 average ticket in Year 1.
The shopper at the liquor store or grocery shelf
A buyer who knows the name from the taproom, a bar or a friend, and picks up a four-pack. The brewery never sees this buyer. The distributor's sales team and the retailer's buyer decide whether the shelf space exists.
The bar and restaurant draft buyer
A manager choosing a tap handle. The question is margin per pint, how quickly a keg turns and whether regulars ask for the beer. A keg that sits unsold for weeks is the quickest way to lose the handle.
The event host
Birthday and corporate groups, rehearsal dinners, running clubs and charity nights. They pay a rental or a per-person minimum and buy the beer at the bar.
What each group asks of the brewery
The taproom guest wants a clean room, a cold pint and a full beer list. The retailer wants an on-time order and a beer that sells through. The bar wants fresh kegs and reliable delivery. The event host wants a date confirmed in writing.
Getting Beer onto Shelves and Taps
How the distributor relationship works
The brewery sells cans and kegs to one distributor at its brewer's price, and the distributor sells to retailers and bars at its own price. The plan books only the brewer's price. Beer pricing rules, distributor agreements and brand registration may be governed by Missouri law, and the exact terms of Anchor Terrace's agreement are confirmed with counsel before signature.
The distributor's job is to put the beer in stores and on taps. The brewery's job is to give the distributor a reason to do it: tastings, point-of-sale material, a manager who rides along on sales calls and a beer people ask for by name. The sales and distributor manager, hired in month 6, is paid to do the second part.
If the distributor stops carrying the brand, the plan has no second channel ready. The loss would take about half of Year 5 revenue with it, and a replacement distributor would take months to place the beer again. The taproom, the events line and the reserve carry the brewery through that gap, and the loan agreement is reviewed with that case in mind.
Accounts the volume implies
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Store and bar accounts buying packs (average in the year) | about 85 | about 165 | about 220 | about 260 | about 280 |
| Draft accounts buying kegs (average in the year) | about 25 | about 50 | about 60 | about 70 | about 80 |
The counts come from volume and a typical order: 27 to 31 packs a month per packaged account and about 1.2 kegs a month per draft account. They are the plan's figures and not a promise that the distributor reaches that many accounts. Year 1 covers six months of shipments.
Pricing and the taproom
Cans are $7.60 a four-pack and kegs $150 a half-barrel, planning prices until the distributor quotes, before any keg deposit, which passes through the distributor and is outside the model. The taproom prices pints at a level the neighborhood will return to every week, and the average ticket of $20.50 includes the takeaway pack or crowler that about a third of visits add. Pack, keg and taproom prices rise 3% a year from Year 2; events and merchandise are set year by year and are not indexed.
From the first call to the first order
A first meeting with the distributor's sales leader and a tasting. A written agreement reviewed by counsel. Label approvals and distributor onboarding, for which the plan allows the four pre-opening months and the first two trading months. The first purchase order in July 2027, with the taproom already open as the brand's shop window.
Building the Brand Around the Taproom
What the marketing budget buys
The first year's marketing totals $72,000: $34,000 of launch spend paid from start-up capital and $38,000 of running costs. That is 14.2% of Year 1 revenue, or 7.5% counting only the running costs. Total marketing falls to 3.8% of revenue in Year 3 and 3.3% in Year 5 as volume and word of mouth carry more of the load. Distributor programs, the in-store tastings and point-of-sale items that move packaged beer, are a separate operating line of $4,000 in Year 1 and $24,000 in Year 2.
The distributor-facing items, the launch tasting program, retail demos and the Year 1 programs line, add up to $21,000. Spread over the roughly 100 stores and 30 taps in place by December 2027, that is about $160 for each account won.
| Channel | Year 1 spend | What it is expected to do |
|---|---|---|
| Brand, can design and label work (launch) | $12,000 | A range of five or six beers with consistent artwork that reads on a shelf |
| Opening events and website (launch) | $14,000 | A public opening, a site with taproom hours and event booking, and a mailing list from day one |
| Distributor tasting program (launch) | $8,000 | Stocked demo events in the first retail accounts |
| Retail tastings and demos | $9,000 | Pack sales in the stores that carry the beer |
| Social, digital ads and local press | $8,000 | Taproom visits and new-release awareness |
| Festival and event sponsorships | $7,000 | Presence at the local summer festivals and charity nights |
| Taproom events and food-truck nights | $4,500 | Weeknight traffic on the terrace |
| Merchandise and signage | $4,500 | Branded glassware, shirts and exterior signs |
| Mug club and email | $5,000 | Repeat visits from the taproom's regulars |
Milestones
- April 2027: first brews, label art finished.
- May 2027: taproom opens with five beers on draft.
- July 2027: first pack and keg shipments to the distributor.
- October 2027: first seasonal release on draft and in cans.
- December 2027: cans in about 100 stores, kegs on about 30 taps, about 2,800 packs a month and about 77 taproom visits a day.
Running the Brewhouse
The brew schedule and the cellar
A brew on the 15-barrel system takes a working day, and two brews fill a 30-barrel fermenter. Ales sit about two weeks in the fermenter and lagers longer, so the plan runs mostly ales. Each fermenter turns about every 18 days, which gives the six tanks a ceiling near 3,600 barrels a year. Year 2 needs about 112 brews, two a week. Year 5 needs about 189, between three and four a week and about 79% of the cellar over the year. The barrel count includes the four-packs sold to go in the taproom as well as pints, kegs and distributor cans. July is tight: with the summer index at 1.22, Year 5 removes about 289 barrels in July against a cellar that can fill about 300 a month, 96%. Two more fermenters are needed by Year 5; the plan orders them in Year 4 from operating cash and does not include them in the model.
The canning line
The line costs $150,000, the largest single equipment item, just ahead of the $140,000 brewhouse. It is a mid-range semi-automatic line: rinser, filler, seamer and date coder, with cases and carriers packed by hand by the cellar crew. A six-hour packaging day at an effective 1,500 cans an hour fills about 36 barrels. Canned volume includes the takeaway packs, about 1,070 barrels in Year 2 and 1,920 in Year 5, which needs about 30 packaging days in Year 2 and 53 in Year 5, close to one a week and five or six in July, when the cellar crew is also moving kegs for the summer orders. A smaller or used line would cost less but would run every packaging day for longer, and the plan treats the spare capacity as a margin of safety, not as revenue. It sells none of it to other brands.
Kegs, stock and payables
The brewery owns its kegs, and the fleet is part of stock and not a fixed asset. About 460 kegs are bought at opening for $60,000, and the plan adds $20,000 to $22,000 a year in Years 2 and 3 for growth and loss. A keg that does not come back is a $130 loss, so the keg technician hired in month 31 tracks returns. Malt, hops, yeast and cans are bought on 30-day terms, and stock is held at about 16% of a year's direct costs on top of the opening $88,000.
Taproom hours and the bar crew
The taproom opens 3 to 9 p.m. Tuesday to Thursday, 2 to 11 p.m. Friday, noon to 11 p.m. Saturday and noon to 7 p.m. Sunday, 45 hours a week. Year 1 averages about 10 visits for each open hour, and Year 5 about 17, with Saturday well above the average. The bar runs two people in every open hour and three on Friday and Saturday evenings, about 130 staffed hours a week with set-up and closing. The lead bartender (40 hours), two part-time bartenders (25 hours each) and the taproom manager (40 hours, all on the floor in Year 1, with office work falling to Dana and the bookkeeper) supply them. A third part-time bartender joins in month 14 as daily visits step up from about 86 to 100. Hourly rates start at $16.00 against Missouri's 2026 minimum wage of $15.00 an hour, summer overtime has its own budget line, and every salaried role is paid above any federal exempt-salary floor.
Quality and food safety
The brewery runs a small lab for gravity, pH and dissolved oxygen checks, and a written cleaning schedule for every vessel. The taproom serves no kitchen food, and it hosts food trucks, subject to local mobile-food rules. A recall plan covers a packaging fault such as a bad seam or a contaminated batch.
The building and what it costs
9,000 square feet at $11 a square foot a year all in is $99,000 a year, with about two months of free rent during build-out so Year 1 is $82,500. Floor drains, three-phase power, gas and water service cost $118,000, and the taproom and terrace build-out $90,000 after a $40,000 landlord allowance written into the lease. Without that allowance the line is $40,000 higher, and the reserve would cover it. Utilities are $38,000 in Year 1 and $62,000 in Year 2, because brewing is heavy on water, sewer service, glycol chilling and boiler gas.
Insurance and risk
Property, general and product liability, liquor liability and a recall endorsement, budgeted together at $34,000 in Year 1 and $42,000 in Year 2. Workers' compensation is carried inside the payroll on-costs. Key-person cover on Dana is a condition of the investment.
Vendors on call
Malt and hop suppliers, a can and lid supplier, a CO2 and gas supplier, a boiler and glycol service contractor and a lab-supply house. Two suppliers are named for every input, so no single supplier can stop a brew day.
Who Runs It
Dana Whitcomb, founder, head brewer and general manager
Dana has twelve years in brewing, the last six as head brewer at a regional production brewery in the Midwest, where she managed a packaging line and a crew of seven. Her $300,000 comes from savings and equity in her home. She brews, runs the business and signs the loan guarantee.
What Dana has not done yet
Dana has not negotiated a distributor agreement on her own, has not run a taproom's labor budget and has not raised outside capital. The plan covers each gap: a lawyer on the distributor agreement, a taproom manager hired in month 4, and two investors who sit on a monthly review call.
Cover for a brew day
The brewer and packaging lead, hired in month 3, learns every recipe and can run a brew day. The second brewer joins in month 24. Until then a contract brewer on a retainer covers a long absence, and key-person insurance protects the loan.
Advisers on call
An accountant who works with Missouri producers reviews the first-year numbers each quarter. A lawyer with alcohol-licensing experience handles the distributor agreement and the annual license renewals.
The cap table and the bank
The two investors together hold 45% for $680,000 and a seat on the monthly review call. The equipment loan carries Dana's personal guarantee, a lien on the brewing and canning equipment, a quarterly reporting requirement and a distribution test. A lender could ask for more equity or collateral than the plan shows, and the reserve is sized to leave room for that. The loan is 70% of the equipment and build-out. The lender in this example is a commercial bank or an equipment financier, and an SBA-guaranteed structure would carry its own terms that the plan does not model.
What Anchor Terrace Costs to Build and Run
A single five-year model produces every table here: twelve monthly columns for 2027, then one column per year. The funding and the barrel, price and cost inputs are listed first so a reader can trace any result back to the line that drives it.
Brewhouse, canning line and who pays for them
| Use of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Reconditioned 15-barrel brewhouse with steam boiler, hot liquor tank and mill | $140,000 |
| Cellar: six 30-barrel fermenters, two brite tanks and glycol chiller (some reconditioned) | $135,000 |
| Canning line: rinser, filler, seamer and date coder (cases packed by hand) | $150,000 |
| Walk-in cooler, used forklift, pallet racking and lab equipment | $62,000 |
| Taproom draft system, bar, furniture and point of sale | $46,000 |
| Floor drains, trench drains, three-phase power, gas and water service for the brewery | $118,000 |
| Taproom and terrace build-out (net of a $40,000 landlord allowance) | $90,000 |
| Opening keg fleet (about 460 half-barrel kegs) | $60,000 |
| First malt, hops, yeast, cans, lids and carriers | $28,000 |
| Federal and state brewing permits, local licenses and label approvals (planning figure) | $7,500 |
| Legal: entity, investor terms, lease, loan and distributor agreement review | $19,000 |
| Launch: brand, can design, website, opening events and distributor tastings | $34,000 |
| Cash reserve for pre-opening payroll, the winter dip and the first loan payments | $610,500 |
| Total uses | $1,500,000 |
| Source of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Dana Whitcomb's savings and home equity | $300,000 |
| Two local investors (together 45% of the company) | $680,000 |
| Equipment loan, secured on the brewing and canning equipment | $520,000 |
| Total sources | $1,500,000 |
Anchor Terrace raises $1,500,000. Dana Whitcomb puts in $300,000 of savings and home equity, and two local investors together put in $680,000 for 45% of the company. A $520,000 ten-year equipment loan at a 9.75% planning rate, secured on the brewhouse, cellar and canning line, is interest-only for 24 months, and Dana guarantees it. The rate is a figure for this example, not a quoted lending rate. The lender is a commercial bank or an equipment financier; an SBA-guaranteed loan would carry its own terms. The loan is 70% of the $741,000 of equipment and build-out, which costs $533,000 for equipment, much of it reconditioned, and $208,000 for building work after a $40,000 landlord allowance. Against the equipment alone the loan is 98% of cost, and the building work is not collateral, so a lender may lend against resale value and ask for more equity or a wider guarantee. Interest-only payments for 24 months are also longer than a typical equipment loan allows; with payments amortizing from the first month, Year 2 debt service cover would be 0.8x and Year 2 closing cash $197,867. The brewhouse at $140,000 and the canning line at $150,000 are the two largest items. The opening keg fleet and first ingredients cost $88,000, and permits, legal work and the launch cost $60,500. That leaves a $610,500 reserve, 41% of the raise, which pays for four months without sales, a first year that loses money and two years of interest-only payments. The reserve covers one shock at a time: a three-month slip in opening, or a 20% shortfall in sales, but not both at once. It also leaves $260,000 to $437,000 of cash on the balance sheet against 9.75% debt in Years 1 to 5. The plan holds that cash for the winter dip and the two fermenters needed by Year 5, and does not prepay the loan.
Barrel, price and cost figures behind the forecast
- Packaged beer is sold to one distributor in 16-ounce cans, four to a pack, at a brewer's price of $7.60 a pack. That is the plan's own price list and not a market quote, and the distributor's written price sheet is the check on it. A barrel fills 62 packs. Shipments start in July 2027, and Year 1 volume is 226 barrels, or 14,012 packs. Years 2 to 5 sell 900, 1,250, 1,500 and 1,700 barrels. By December 2027 the distributor is supplying about 2,800 packs a month to roughly 100 stores and bars, and the account count rises to about 280 by Year 5.
- Kegs are sold to the same distributor at $150 for a half-barrel keg, $300 a barrel. Deposits are outside the model. Year 1 sells 94 barrels, or 188 kegs, and Years 2 to 5 sell 340, 450, 510 and 560 barrels, which is 57 to 93 kegs a month across 50 to 80 draft accounts at about 1.2 kegs an account each month.
- The taproom is open Tuesday to Sunday, 26 trading days a month. Visits a day average 77.5 across the eight trading months of Year 1, from 66 in May to 86 in December before seasonality, then 100, 118, 126 and 131 in Years 2 to 5. A visit is worth $20.50 in Year 1: about 2.2 pints at roughly $7 each, a four-pack to go on about a third of visits, and some merchandise.
- Taproom hours are 3 to 9 p.m. Tuesday to Thursday, 2 to 11 p.m. Friday, noon to 11 p.m. Saturday and noon to 7 p.m. Sunday, 45 hours a week. The Year 1 average of 77.5 visits a day is about 10 visits for each open hour, and 131 a day in Year 5 is about 17. The bar runs two people in every open hour and three on Friday and Saturday evenings, about 130 staffed hours a week once set-up and closing are counted. The lead bartender (40 hours), two part-time bartenders (25 each) and the taproom manager (40 hours, all on the floor in Year 1, with office work falling to Dana and the bookkeeper) supply them, and a third part-time bartender joins in month 14.
- Prices step up 3% a year from Year 2 on the pack, keg and taproom lines, so the Year 3 visit is worth $21.75 and the Year 3 pack price is $8.06. Events and merchandise are typed-in annual figures and are not indexed. Year 1 volumes carry a calendar index that runs from 0.78 in January to 1.22 in July and 0.89 in December. Later years are annual totals with no month detail.
- Private events, terrace rental and merchandise earn $22,700 in Year 1 and $80,000, $105,000, $120,000 and $130,000 in Years 2 to 5, which is $6,667 a month on average in Year 2 against $3,600 in December 2027. A part-time events coordinator starts in month 21.
- Direct costs are 30% of packaged sales, 28% of keg sales, 15% of taproom sales and 30% of event and merchandise sales, which blends to 19.6% of revenue in every year. They cover malt, hops, yeast, cans, lids, carriers, labels, CO2 and merchandise purchases. Brewing labor, utilities, excise and equipment service sit on their own lines. Ingredient and can prices move, and a supplier quote is the check on this figure.
- The brewery removes 562 barrels from the building in Year 1 and 1,685, 2,225, 2,570 and 2,842 in Years 2 to 5. That counts taproom pours at about 2.2 pints a visit (248 pints to the barrel) and a four-pack to go on a third of visits (62 packs to the barrel), together about 0.0142 barrels a visit. At 15 barrels a brew that is about 112 brews in Year 2 and 189 in Year 5, between two and four a week. Each of the six 30-barrel fermenters turns about every 18 days, or 20 fills a year, for a ceiling near 3,600 barrels, so Year 5 uses about 79% of the cellar over the year. July is the test: with the summer index at 1.22, Year 5 removals are about 289 barrels in July against a cellar that can fill about 300 barrels a month, 96%, which leaves almost no slack. Two more fermenters are needed by Year 5, are ordered in Year 4 from operating cash, and are not in the model.
- The canning line is a mid-range semi-automatic line: rinser, filler, seamer and date coder, with cases and carriers packed by hand by the cellar crew. It also fills the four-packs sold to go in the taproom. At an effective 1,500 cans an hour, a six-hour packaging day fills about 36 barrels. Canned volume, distributor packs plus takeaway, is about 1,070 barrels in Year 2 and 1,920 in Year 5 (about 476,000 cans), which needs about 30 packaging days in Year 2 and 53 in Year 5, close to one a week and five or six in July. The plan sells none of the spare capacity.
- Federal beer excise is $3.50 a barrel on the first 60,000 barrels removed in a year by a domestic brewer that produces 2,000,000 barrels or less, according to the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) tax and fee rates page; the general rate is higher, and the brewery confirms its eligibility with the TTB. Missouri charges 62 cents a barrel on malt liquor made in an American brewery for tax years beginning January 1, 2026 (Revised Statutes of Missouri section 311.520, effective August 28, 2025). Together that is $4.12 a barrel on every barrel removed, taproom pours and takeaway packs included, or $11,709 in Year 5. Both rates are set by statute and can change, and the plan holds them flat. Retail sales tax on taproom sales is collected from guests and passed on, and is outside the model.
- Receivables average 18 days: distributor invoices are paid in about 30 days, and taproom and event sales are paid at the time of sale. Stock is the $88,000 of opening kegs and ingredients plus 16% of each year's direct costs, $103,834 at the end of Year 1 and $140,359 at the end of Year 3. Suppliers are paid in 30 days. The keg fleet sits in the stock line and is not depreciated, with additions and losses charged as a separate expense.
- On-costs of 27% go on top of wages (15% for the part-time roles) and stand in for payroll taxes, health contributions and workers' compensation, which a carrier prices for brewery floor work and which is therefore left out of the insurance line. Hourly pay starts at $16.00 for the part-time bartenders and is about $18.30 for the lead bartender ($38,000 over 2,080 hours), against a Missouri minimum wage of $15.00 an hour in 2026 (Missouri Department of Labor and Industrial Relations). The state sets later years' rates, and the 3% yearly raise is a planning figure. Bartender wages exclude guest tips. Summer overtime and seasonal event staff is its own line, $6,000 in Year 1 and $16,000 in Year 2. The personnel table shows launch wages, and a separate line adds 3% pay raises from Year 2 on.
- Rent is a 9,000-square-foot building at $11 a square foot a year all in, $99,000, on a ten-year lease that rises 3% a year. Year 1 is $82,500 because the landlord gives about two months of free rent during build-out. Utilities are $38,000 in Year 1 and $62,000 in Year 2, driven by water and sewer charges and the glycol chiller and boiler.
- Tax is charged at corporate rates, 21% federal (26 U.S.C. 11(b)) and 4% for Missouri (Missouri Department of Revenue, tax years beginning on or after January 1, 2020). Both may change. Were the LLC taxed through its owners, the charge would move to their personal returns. Year 1 and Year 2 losses are carried forward against later profit until Year 5, although federal rules can cap the share of a year's income that old losses offset. A Kansas City earnings tax on payroll and profits may apply and is not modeled. The CPA settles each of these before the first return.
- Dana and the investors share $60,000 of distributions in Year 4 and $100,000 in Year 5 at 55/45. A payment is made only if debt service cover is above 1.5x and cash after it stays above $250,000, a test the loan agreement is expected to mirror. The loan is never prepaid, so the brewery holds cash while it owes the bank.
Revenue by sales channel
| Revenue stream | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packaged beer sold through the distributor | $106,450 | $436,800 | $624,850 | $772,350 | $901,600 |
| Kegs sold through the distributor | $28,200 | $105,050 | $143,200 | $167,200 | $189,100 |
| Taproom pints and takeaway | $348,800 | $658,800 | $800,700 | $880,600 | $943,050 |
| Private events, terrace rental and merchandise | $22,700 | $80,000 | $105,000 | $120,000 | $130,000 |
| Total revenue | $506,150 | $1,280,650 | $1,673,750 | $1,940,150 | $2,163,750 |
| Growth on prior year | – | 153% | 31% | 16% | 12% |
The taproom is 69% of Year 1 revenue from 43% of the barrels, and the distributor lines are 27% of revenue from 57% of the barrels. The taproom is 48% of Year 3 revenue and packaged beer 37%. By Year 5 the two are close, at 44% and 42%, and the distributor lines together are half of revenue. Events and merchandise run at about 6% of revenue from Year 2. Year 2 revenue is 153% above Year 1 because Year 1 holds eight taproom months and only six months of distribution. Year 2 averages $106,721 a month, 34% above the December 2027 rate adjusted for the winter index (about $79,800). It needs packaged beer up 53% on that December rate, taproom visits from 86 a day to 100, and events and merchandise from $3,600 in December to $6,667 a month on average, 1.9 times the December level. Events is the weakest of the four ramps, and Year 2 growth above 100% is the reason the engine raises its growth warning.
Month by month in 2027
| Month | Packaged beer sold through the distributor | Kegs sold through the distributor | Taproom pints and takeaway | Private events, terrace rental and merchandise | Total revenue | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2027 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($53,212) |
| Feb 2027 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($53,212) |
| Mar 2027 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($53,212) |
| Apr 2027 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($53,212) |
| May 2027 | $0 | $0 | $38,000 | $0 | $38,000 | ($22,642) |
| Jun 2027 | $0 | $0 | $45,300 | $1,800 | $47,100 | ($15,321) |
| Jul 2027 | $10,350 | $2,700 | $48,100 | $2,600 | $63,750 | ($1,926) |
| Aug 2027 | $16,000 | $4,200 | $47,800 | $3,600 | $71,600 | $4,389 |
| Sep 2027 | $18,850 | $5,100 | $44,750 | $3,900 | $72,600 | $5,193 |
| Oct 2027 | $19,800 | $5,400 | $42,850 | $4,000 | $72,050 | $4,751 |
| Nov 2027 | $20,250 | $5,400 | $41,200 | $3,200 | $70,050 | $3,142 |
| Dec 2027 | $21,200 | $5,400 | $40,800 | $3,600 | $71,000 | $3,906 |
The model spreads Year 1 operating costs evenly across the twelve months, so each of January to April, with no sales, shows a loss of $53,212. Actual wages are lighter in January and February and heavier from May, and the evenly spread figure also carries rent, insurance, software and the year's overtime allowance. The taproom opens in May with $38,000 of sales, and cans and kegs reach the distributor in July. EBITDA turns positive in August at $4,389 and stays positive to December, when revenue is $71,000. The summer index lifts taproom and distributor volume in June to August, and the winter months after December are not shown here because the model spreads later years evenly. In the monthly view, cash less 18 days of that month's revenue as receivables not yet collected is lowest in Aug, at about $285,000. The balance sheet below shows year-end cash of $295,785 for Year 1; the two figures come from different parts of the model and are not meant to match. Years 2 to 5 are annual totals, so the real trough in winter 2028 is not shown, and the lowest year-end cash, $259,668 at the end of Year 2, is the best guide to it.
Who is on the brewery payroll
| Role | Annual wage | Starts | Year 1 end | Year 2 end | Year 3 end | Year 4 end | Year 5 end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Founder, head brewer and general manager | $85,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Brewer and packaging lead | $58,000 | Month 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bookkeeper | $30,000 | Month 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Taproom manager | $54,000 | Month 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Cellar and packaging operator | $43,000 | Month 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lead bartender | $38,000 | Month 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bartender (part time, 25 hours a week) | $20,800 | Month 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Bartender (part time, 25 hours a week), second | $20,800 | Month 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Sales and distributor manager | $60,000 | Month 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bartender (part time, 25 hours a week), third | $20,800 | Month 14 | – | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Events coordinator (part time) | $26,000 | Month 21 | – | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Second brewer | $54,000 | Month 24 | – | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Keg and delivery technician | $42,000 | Month 31 | – | – | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Taproom shift lead | $40,000 | Month 38 | – | – | – | 1 | 1 |
| Second cellar and packaging operator | $44,000 | Month 40 | – | – | – | 1 | 1 |
| Distributor sales representative | $50,000 | Month 46 | – | – | – | 1 | 1 |
| Total payroll incl. on-costs | $391,567 | $549,208 | $660,670 | $791,692 | $857,520 |
Dana is on payroll in January and brews as well as manages. The brewer and packaging lead joins in month 3 to commission the brewhouse, the taproom manager and part-time bookkeeper in month 4, and the cellar operator, lead bartender and two part-time bartenders in month 5, the month the doors open. The sales and distributor manager starts in month 6, ahead of the first shipments. A third part-time bartender follows in month 14, when daily visits step up from about 86 to 100, the events coordinator in month 21, a second brewer in month 24 as barrels reach about 1,700 a year, and a keg and delivery technician in month 31. A taproom shift lead (month 38), a second packaging operator (month 40) and a distributor sales representative (month 46) all start in Year 4. Part-time roles show as 0.5 and carry the salary actually paid. Salaried roles are paid well above any federal exempt-salary floor, and the floor staff are hourly with overtime, which the summer overtime line covers.
Profit and loss by year
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $506,150 | $1,280,650 | $1,673,750 | $1,940,150 | $2,163,750 |
| Direct costs (grain, hops, yeast, cans, lids and CO2) | ($98,961) | ($250,389) | ($327,247) | ($379,333) | ($423,050) |
| Gross profit | $407,189 | $1,030,261 | $1,346,503 | $1,560,817 | $1,740,700 |
| Payroll incl. on-costs | ($391,567) | ($549,208) | ($660,670) | ($791,692) | ($857,520) |
| Rent | ($82,500) | ($99,000) | ($102,000) | ($105,060) | ($108,212) |
| Utilities | ($38,000) | ($62,000) | ($68,000) | ($72,000) | ($76,000) |
| Marketing | ($38,000) | ($58,000) | ($64,000) | ($68,000) | ($72,000) |
| Insurance | ($34,000) | ($42,000) | ($46,000) | ($49,000) | ($52,000) |
| Professional fees | ($9,000) | ($9,500) | ($10,000) | ($10,500) | ($11,000) |
| Software subscriptions | ($7,500) | ($9,500) | ($10,500) | ($11,000) | ($11,500) |
| Federal beer excise ($3.50 a barrel) and Missouri inspection fee (62 cents a barrel) | ($2,315) | ($6,942) | ($9,167) | ($10,588) | ($11,709) |
| Distributor programs: chain placement, sampling and point of sale | ($4,000) | ($24,000) | ($34,000) | ($40,000) | ($44,000) |
| Keg fleet additions and loss replacement | ($2,000) | ($20,000) | ($22,000) | ($16,000) | ($14,000) |
| Cleaning chemicals, lab supplies and water treatment | ($6,000) | ($10,500) | ($12,000) | ($13,000) | ($14,000) |
| Equipment service: seamer parts, glycol and boiler contracts | ($3,500) | ($11,000) | ($15,000) | ($17,500) | ($19,000) |
| Card processing fees (2.7% of taproom and event sales) | ($10,031) | ($19,948) | ($24,454) | ($27,016) | ($28,972) |
| Bad debt allowance (distributor and event balances) | ($631) | ($2,426) | ($3,354) | ($4,019) | ($4,572) |
| License renewals, trade dues and training | ($3,500) | ($5,200) | ($5,600) | ($5,800) | ($6,000) |
| Summer overtime and seasonal event staff | ($6,000) | ($16,000) | ($18,000) | ($19,500) | ($21,000) |
| Equipment replacement | $0 | ($4,000) | ($8,000) | ($12,000) | ($14,000) |
| Annual pay raises (3% a year) | $0 | ($16,476) | ($40,235) | ($73,411) | ($107,626) |
| EBITDA | ($231,355) | $64,561 | $193,523 | $214,732 | $267,589 |
| Depreciation | ($76,788) | ($76,788) | ($76,788) | ($76,788) | ($76,788) |
| Interest | ($50,700) | ($50,700) | ($48,718) | ($44,114) | ($39,041) |
| Income tax | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($358,843) | ($62,927) | $68,017 | $93,830 | $151,760 |
| Start-up costs expensed at opening (legal, permits, launch) | ($60,500) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($419,343) | ($62,927) | $68,017 | $93,830 | $151,760 |
The first year ends $231,355 below break-even at EBITDA and $419,343 down once depreciation, interest and $60,500 of start-up costs are counted. In Year 2 EBITDA is positive at $64,561 (5.0%), but depreciation and interest leave a net loss of $62,927. Year 3 turns the corner: EBITDA of $193,523 (11.6%) and net income of $68,017, 4.1% of revenue. Year 4 earns $93,830 and Year 5 $151,760. EBITDA margin stays between 11% and 12.4% in Years 3 to 5 because each step in volume is met by a hire: the shift lead, a second packaging operator and the distributor representative all start in Year 4, and pay raises reach $107,626 by Year 5. Income tax is zero in all five years because the Year 1 and Year 2 losses, about $422,000 before start-up costs, are carried forward against later profit. The engine does not apply the federal 80% limit on using old losses, and its tax base ignores start-up costs. Were the 80% limit applied, tax of roughly $3,000 to $8,000 a year would fall due in Years 3 to 5, a calculation done outside the engine.
Where the cash comes from and goes
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | ($463,215) | ($36,116) | $119,439 | $153,427 | $214,120 |
| Brewing, canning and taproom equipment and build-out | ($741,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Funding received | $1,500,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Loan principal repaid | $0 | $0 | ($45,145) | ($49,749) | ($54,823) |
| Owner distributions | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($60,000) | ($100,000) |
| Net change in cash | $295,785 | ($36,116) | $74,294 | $43,678 | $59,297 |
| Closing cash | $295,785 | $259,668 | $333,962 | $377,640 | $436,937 |
No year ends with negative cash. The low point at a year end is $259,668 in Year 2, and cash then builds to $436,937 by Year 5 while $370,283 of the loan is still outstanding. Principal repayments begin in month 25. Distributions start in Year 4, after cash has passed $330,000 and the loan has begun to amortize, and the Year 5 cash balance pays for the two extra fermenters the cellar needs by Year 5, which are not in the model. Because Years 2 to 5 are annual totals, the lowest cash within a year, most likely in the winter of 2028, is lower than the year-end figures shown.
Balance sheet, kegs and stock
| At year end | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $295,785 | $259,668 | $333,962 | $377,640 | $436,937 |
| Accounts receivable | $24,961 | $63,155 | $82,541 | $95,679 | $106,705 |
| Kegs, grain, hops and packaging stock | $103,834 | $128,062 | $140,359 | $148,693 | $155,688 |
| Brewing, canning and taproom equipment and build-out (net) | $664,212 | $587,424 | $510,636 | $433,848 | $357,060 |
| Total assets | $1,088,791 | $1,038,310 | $1,067,499 | $1,055,860 | $1,056,390 |
| Grain, hop and can supplier balances (accounts payable) | $8,134 | $20,580 | $26,897 | $31,178 | $34,771 |
| Equipment loan | $520,000 | $520,000 | $474,855 | $425,105 | $370,283 |
| Paid-in capital | $980,000 | $980,000 | $980,000 | $980,000 | $980,000 |
| Retained earnings | ($419,343) | ($482,270) | ($414,253) | ($380,424) | ($328,664) |
| Total liabilities and equity | $1,088,791 | $1,038,310 | $1,067,499 | $1,055,860 | $1,056,390 |
Margins, break-even and debt cover
| Measure | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin | -45.7% | 5.0% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 12.4% |
| Net margin (before start-up costs) | -70.9% | -4.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% |
| Payroll incl. pay raises as share of revenue | 77% | 44% | 42% | 45% | 45% |
| Revenue per full-time equivalent at year end | $67,487 | $134,805 | $159,405 | $143,715 | $160,278 |
| Average monthly revenue | $42,179 | $106,721 | $139,479 | $161,679 | $180,313 |
| Monthly revenue needed to cover operating costs | $66,144 | $100,033 | $119,433 | $139,436 | $152,594 |
| Debt service cover (EBITDA / interest + principal) | -4.6x | 1.3x | 2.1x | 2.3x | 2.9x |
Compare the two revenue lines near the foot of the table: the brewery covers its operating costs in a year when average monthly revenue is above the needed figure. That break-even leaves out interest and depreciation, which is why Year 2 can clear it and still show a net loss of $62,927. Year 1 sits at $42,179 against $66,144 needed, with four months of no sales dragging it down. Year 2 reaches $106,721 against $100,033, and Year 3 $139,479 against $119,433. Debt service cover is negative in Year 1, 1.3x in Year 2 while the loan is interest-only, and 2.1x in Year 3, the first year of principal, then 2.3x and 2.9x. With cover at -4.6x in Year 1 and 1.3x in Year 2, a 1.25x covenant tested from Year 2 is not realistic, and the plan expects the first test at the end of Year 3.
Every sales line 20% short
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $404,920 | $1,024,520 | $1,339,000 | $1,552,120 | $1,731,000 |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($430,388) | ($176,133) | ($37,253) | $25,224 | $49,427 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($490,888) | ($176,133) | ($37,253) | $25,224 | $49,427 |
| Closing cash | $230,771 | $91,445 | $65,541 | $104,052 | $163,902 |
Here every revenue line is 20% lower in every year, and the owner reacts nine months into the plan, which is five months after the taproom opened and three after the first shipment. From month 10 Dana takes a 20% pay cut and marketing falls by 20%. Every hire due from month 13 starts six months later, and the events coordinator, the keg and delivery technician and the distributor sales representative are never hired. From Year 2, distributor programs fall by 20%, keg additions and equipment replacement by half, cleaning supplies by 15%, overtime by 20% and utilities by 5%. Excise, card fees and bad debt fall with sales from the first month, and the owners take nothing out. Year 1 annual cost lines are left untrimmed apart from three months of marketing, and because the monthly view spreads annual costs evenly, the timing is approximate. Under that response the brewery loses money in Years 1 to 3, earns $25,224 in Year 4 and $49,427 in Year 5, and still closes each year with cash, the lowest being $65,541 at the end of Year 3. Debt service cover is below zero in Year 2, when EBITDA of negative $48,645 does not cover $50,700 of interest and the reserve pays the difference. It is 0.9x in Year 3 as principal begins, 1.6x in Year 4 and 1.8x in Year 5. A lender covenant of 1.25x would be missed in Years 2 and 3. The owner asks the bank to extend the interest-only period to 36 months and to start testing cover at the end of Year 3, which in this case gives cover of 1.7x in Year 3, 1.4x in Year 4 and 1.6x in Year 5. Year 1 equity is $489,112. Net income and cash both stay under the base case in every year.
Stress Tests and What a Lender Would Still Ask
One input at a time
Each case below changes one input in the financial model and leaves everything else as in the base case, so there is no management response. Distributions are switched off in every row, base case included, because the plan's own test would stop them when cover or cash falls short; the base row therefore differs from the financial tables, which pay $160,000 in Years 4 and 5. Cover is the Year 2 debt service cover, when the loan is interest-only.
| Case | Year 2 cover | Year 3 net income | Year 5 closing cash |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case, no distributions | 1.3x | $68,017 | $596,937 |
| Packaged beer price 5% lower | 0.9x | $39,470 | $469,762 |
| Packaged beer price 10% lower | 0.5x | $10,981 | $342,860 |
| Direct costs 3 points higher on every line | 0.5x | $17,805 | $364,953 |
| Wages 10% higher | 0.2x | ($2,073) | $248,097 |
| Taproom sales 15% lower | -0.4x | ($36,758) | $130,128 |
| Cans and kegs 20% lower, taproom as planned | -0.3x | ($46,992) | $91,500 |
| Loan rate 2 points higher (11.75%) | 1.1x | $57,831 | $556,040 |
| Rent 10% higher | 1.1x | $57,817 | $547,260 |
Two lessons come out of the table. Year 2 cover of 1.3x has almost no room: every stressed row falls below a likely 1.25x covenant, which is why the plan expects the first test at the end of Year 3. And the taproom carries the plan, since a 15% shortfall there does more damage than a 10% cut in the packaged price. Cases that move volume also change the Year 1 sales mix, and the engine applies one blended direct-cost rate from Year 1 to every later year, so the two volume rows are approximate.
A three-month slip in opening, with every first sale three months later and payroll and rent on the original schedule, leaves Year 1 closing cash at $141,564 against $295,785 in the base case, and Year 1 closing equity at $392,436. The model does not re-time later years for the slip, so only the Year 1 figures are quoted.
What a lender would still ask
- A written price sheet and a letter of interest from the distributor, covering its margin, territory, minimum order and the cost and notice period for ending the agreement. The $7.60 pack price and the 900 barrels in Year 2 rest on it.
- The date each federal and state license and label approval is granted, set against equipment ordered in January 2027. A slip beyond the three months the reserve covers is not funded.
- Evidence for the Year 2 ramp. Revenue averages $106,721 a month, 34% above the December 2027 rate adjusted for the winter index, and it needs visits to rise from 86 a day to 100 and events from $3,600 a month to $6,667. Comparable taprooms in the same trade area, the lease terms and bookings already held for events are the evidence a lender would want.
- The loan structure. At $520,000 against $533,000 of mostly reconditioned equipment, the loan is 98% of equipment cost, and the $208,000 of building work is not collateral. A lender may offer less, ask for more equity or a wider guarantee, or want payments to amortize from the first month, which takes Year 2 cover to 0.8x. An appraisal of the reconditioned brewhouse and cellar would come first.
- Why $260,000 to $437,000 of cash sits on the balance sheet against 9.75% debt. The plan holds it for the winter dip and the fermenters needed by Year 5 and does not prepay the loan.
- Who owns the keg fleet over time, the loss rate behind the $130 replacement cost, and how deposits passed through the distributor are tracked, since the model carries no deposit liability.
- The size and terms of any home-equity borrowing inside Dana's $300,000. Its repayments fall on Dana and are not in the debt cover.
- Can, lid and malt contracts, minimum orders and how aluminum price swings are shared with the brewery.
- How long a replacement distributor would take to place the beer if the first one ended the agreement, and what the taproom alone earns in that gap. A 20% fall in cans and kegs with the taproom as planned takes Year 3 to a loss in the table above.
- The lowest cash inside each year. Years 2 to 5 are annual totals, so the winter 2028 trough is not shown, and the lowest year-end figure, $259,668 at the end of Year 2, is the only guide.
- The covenant. Year 1 cover is -4.6x and Year 2 1.3x, so a 1.25x test from Year 2 is not realistic. In the downside case cover is below zero in Year 2 and 0.9x in Year 3, which is why the plan asks for 36 months interest-only and a first test at the end of Year 3.
- The investors' rights over a second raise for the extra fermenters, and the deadlock terms between a 55% and a 45% holder.
Sources
Prices, wages, rents and volumes in this plan are its own figures. The pages below are where each real-world rule can be confirmed with the named body, and the rates quoted in the plan come from them. Rates change, so each is confirmed again before the plan is relied on.
- Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB), Tax and fee rates: beer rates for 2018 to the present, $3.50 a barrel on the first 60,000 barrels removed in a year by a domestic brewer producing 2,000,000 barrels or less, and $16.00 a barrel above that. Brewer registration, label approval and filing rules are on the TTB beer pages.
- Revisor of Statutes, State of Missouri, section 311.520, effective August 28, 2025: a charge of 62 cents a barrel on malt liquor made in an American brewery, for tax years beginning on or after January 1, 2026.
- Missouri Department of Revenue, corporate income tax: a rate of 4 percent for tax years beginning on or after January 1, 2020.
- Missouri Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, minimum wage: $15.00 an hour for 2026, with tipped employees paid at least half of that plus tips up to the full rate.
- Legal Information Institute, 26 U.S.C. 11(b): the 21% federal corporate rate.
- Missouri Division of Alcohol and Tobacco Control, licensing: brewer, wholesaler and retail license classes and fees, which are not quoted in the plan.
- City of Kansas City, Missouri, business licenses and earnings tax: premises licensing and any city earnings tax on profits and payroll, which is not modeled.
- Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, food establishment rules: permits for food sold or served in the taproom.
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