Looking for an agritourism business plan? You're in the right place.
A farm that opens its gate to visitors has to answer questions a crop farm never faces. How much does the barn cost, and who pays for it? What do the five slow months cost, and how is that covered? What if bookings come in a fifth short? A generic template won't show you what a believable answer looks like.
In this article we'll walk through a complete sample plan for a leased citrus farm near Phoenix, Arizona, section by section. We'll cover the executive summary, the SWOT analysis and, in particular, all of the financials.
Here's what you'll take away:
- The executive summary: see how to put a farm with five revenue lines on one page so a lender knows what you are asking for
- The market section: learn how to build a season around local weather and say so plainly
- The funding table: find out how much of a raise goes into buildings, and how much has to sit as cash for the closed months
- The first year, month by month: spot the months that lose money before you get there, and plan your cash around them
- The marketing budget: see what a new farm might spend per visitor, per student and per wedding booked
- The five-year profit, cash flow and balance sheet: understand how a wedding barn and a staffing plan show up in the numbers
- The downside case: have an answer ready for "what if bookings are 20% short?", along with the steps the owner takes
If you're planning a farm that welcomes visitors, read this before you write your own. The farm is fictional, so take what fits and change the rest.
In this plan
To turn this example into your own agritourism business plan, use the agritourism business plan template.
Executive Summary
Ridge Spring is a working citrus and vegetable farm on the southeast edge of the Phoenix metro. It opens to the public on January 1, 2027. Visitors pay to pick fruit and walk the beds, school groups book field trips, couples rent a converted barn for weddings, and a stand and café sell what the farm grows. Founder Naomi Castellano spent nine years running events at a Scottsdale resort and manages the business.
The farm needs $896,000. Naomi puts in $160,000, the family that owns the land adds $180,000, two local investors add $206,000, and a bank lends $350,000. Of the total, $300,000 converts an existing equipment barn and builds the restrooms, parking and access around it, $80,000 buys equipment, $96,000 covers drawings, permits, legal work and the launch, and $420,000 is held as a cash reserve.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $368,580 | $655,000 | $923,000 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($310,298) | ($102,887) | $51,266 |
| Closing cash | $219,832 | $134,931 | $174,961 |
The calendar explains the shape. Phoenix is too hot for visitors from June to August, so the farm takes $3,840 in those three months and loses money from May to September. The hall is built during the closed summer and opens in October 2027, so weddings do not start until the first autumn and the event line takes two seasons to fill. Years 1 and 2 are losses and Year 3 is the first profit.
The plan also tests a 20% shortfall in every revenue line. With a leaner crew, a smaller marketing budget and no distributions, the farm ends every year with cash in the bank, though its lowest September balances are thin.
The pitch is a farm day a family can afford, and a hall on a working grove for a couple who want one.
The Farm and the Company
Legal name: Ridge Spring Farm LLC, an Arizona limited liability company. Ownership: Naomi Castellano 40%, the landowner family 28%, two local investors 32%. Naomi's share is above her 18% of the money because the operating agreement grants her equity that vests over five years. The agreement also gives her day-to-day control. Site: about 20 acres on a 15-year ground lease with two five-year options: 12 acres of mature citrus, 5 acres of vegetable and flower beds, and 3 acres for the hall and parking. An existing 3,200-square-foot equipment barn and a pump house come with the lease. Stage: pre-opening. The lease terms are agreed, the conversion drawings are with an architect, and six wedding inquiries are on a list.
Why the land is leased
The landowners want to keep the grove in the family and take a rent plus a share of the upside through their equity. Ridge Spring pays for the conversion and owns the improvements for the length of the lease. The bank would ask the landowner for a waiver over those improvements before it lends.
Five ways the farm earns
| Line | How it is priced | Share of 2027 revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Day visits and U-pick | $18 blended entry | 36% |
| School and group field trips | $14 a student | 12% |
| Wedding and private events | $8,500 a wedding, $3,000 other events | 21% |
| Farm stand and café | About $6 per visitor | 17% |
| Farm dinners and classes | $105 a guest | 13% |
Targets
- Open to the public in January 2027 and reach 7,460 paying visitors by December.
- Open the converted hall in October 2027 with 5 weddings and 12 other events booked for the year.
- Reach 26 weddings and 42 other events by Year 3, the first profitable year.
- Pay a first distribution in Year 4.
Permits and local rules
A hall that hosts weddings on farmland usually needs more than a farm's normal approvals. The plan budgets $24,000 for plan review, a use permit, food permits and fire inspection and $48,000 for drawings and legal work. Three questions are conditions of closing the raise: whether the county zoning allows events on the parcel, which food permits Maricopa County requires for the stand and farm dinners, and what the fire inspection sets as the limit on guests. The use permit application goes to the county before the lease is signed, and construction runs from June to September 2027, while the farm is closed to the public. If the permit slips, hall revenue slips with it. Alcohol is served only by a licensed caterer or bartender under that business's own license and insurance, and Ridge Spring holds no liquor license.
The Phoenix Visitor Market
Heat sets the calendar
The National Weather Service's 1991 to 2020 normal for a Phoenix July high is 106.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Visitors and wedding guests tend to stay indoors from June to August, and bookings concentrate between October and April. The plan follows that pattern: public days stop in June, the stand opens for early-morning hours only, and the year's cash has to cover the gap. Summer weddings in the air-conditioned hall would be a bonus, but none is counted in the forecast.
What agritourism earns nationally
The USDA Economic Research Service reported in December 2024 that US farms and ranches earned $1.26 billion from agritourism services in 2022, up 12.4% from 2017 after adjusting for inflation. That is a national figure for all farm types and says nothing about Arizona or one farm. Ridge Spring's own figures come from its price list and its calendar.
Who else a family or couple could pick
| Alternative | What it offers | Why someone picks it | How Ridge Spring differs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonal pick-your-own farms in the wider valley | Fruit and a few activities | Familiar, often cheaper | Citrus in winter, field trips, dinners and a stand under one entry |
| Barn and garden wedding venues | Rental of grounds and a hall | Established reviews and photographers' favorites | A working grove as the backdrop and a farm team on site |
| Resort and hotel ballrooms | One contract for rooms, food and the room | Convenience and air conditioning | Outdoor setting, a lower venue fee, a caterer of the couple's choice |
| Farmers markets and farm-to-table restaurants | Local produce and meals | Weekly routine | A day on the farm, with the picking and the setting |
The table describes what each option offers and is not a ranking. Competing venues' prices change often and are not quoted here.
SWOT
| Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|
| Founder with nine years of event operations | No local reputation yet; the first wedding season rests on tours and photographs |
| Mature citrus and a landowner who is also an investor | The farm loses money in each of the five months from May to September |
| Five revenue lines that share one set of grounds | Almost half the raise is held as cash |
| Opportunities | Threats |
|---|---|
| Couples and companies looking for outdoor venues in the cooler months | New wedding venues in the valley may compete for the same Saturdays |
| School districts that want hands-on science and food field trips | An extreme-heat spring or autumn could cut the season short |
| Dinners and classes that fill midweek dates | Public-liability insurance costs may rise |
Who Comes to the Farm
Families on a winter weekend
Parents with children under twelve from across the east and southeast valley, most within a 40-minute drive. They arrive on Saturdays from January to April, pick fruit, buy at the stand and leave within three hours. The farm is their outing.
Couples planning a wedding
Couples book 9 to 15 months ahead and compare four or five venues on photographs, price and what is included. They visit twice: a tour, then a tasting with their caterer. The venue fee is the first decision that fixes their budget.
Teachers and school offices
A teacher chooses the trip, the school office approves it and a bus is booked. Trips fit January to April and October to November, and the paperwork asks for a price per student, a lesson link and proof of insurance.
Companies and groups
Office teams, clubs and families booking a party want a date, a headcount and one invoice. They fill the Fridays and Sundays that weddings leave open.
Dinner guests
Couples and friends who book a long table of farm food, often the same people who visited during the day. Guests pay $105 for a seasonal menu cooked from the grove and beds.
Booking the Calendar
From inquiry to deposit
A wedding inquiry gets a reply within a day and a tour within a week. A booking needs a signed contract and a deposit, with the balance due 30 days before the date. School trips are booked online against a published price list. Private events are quoted by headcount and date. On extreme-heat days the public gate closes and tickets move to another date, and weddings take place in the air-conditioned hall.
The 2027 booking funnel
About 30 wedding tours, and one in six becomes a booking: 5 weddings. About 50 private-event inquiries produce 12 bookings. Day visitors buy tickets online, and the field-trip list is built from district contacts.
| Line | 2027 volume | Where the volume comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Weddings | 5 | Wedding-venue listings, photographers, tours |
| Private and corporate events | 12 | Referrals, local employers, repeat guests |
| Students on field trips | 3,200 | District outreach, repeat teachers |
| Day visitors | 7,460 | Online tickets, social media, email list |
| Farm dinners | 8 | Email list, day visitors |
Pricing
Entry averages $18 with a U-pick bag included; heavier picking is weighed and charged. A wedding fee of $8,500 covers the hall, the grounds, tables and chairs, and the ceremony setup. Prices rise about 3% a year after 2027.
Repeat business
Season passes and a dinner-club list bring families back. Event customers who liked the setting send friends, and the plan counts on that for the larger event numbers after Year 2.
Spending to Fill the Calendar
The marketing budget
The first-year budget is $64,000: $24,000 of launch spend paid from start-up capital and $40,000 of running costs. That is 17% of 2027 revenue; the share falls to 4.8% in Year 3 and 4.2% in Year 5 as repeat visitors and referrals take over. Digital spend for day visits is $13,500 over 7,460 visitors, about $1.81 each against an $18 ticket. School outreach is $2,500 over 3,200 students, about $0.78 each. Event spend is $19,000. Charged across the 17 bookings it is about $1,118 each against an average fee of $4,618, and charged to the 5 weddings alone it is $3,800 against an $8,500 fee. A venue's first season is its most expensive one to fill.
| Item | 2027 spend | What it is meant to do |
|---|---|---|
| Website and online ticketing (launch) | $9,000 | A site that sells tickets and shows open weekends |
| Signage, photography and video (launch) | $8,000 | Road signs, a wedding gallery, a short film of the grove |
| Wedding-venue listings and styled shoot (launch) | $7,000 | First listings on wedding marketplaces and photographers' contacts |
| Search and social ads for day visits | $9,000 | Winter weekend traffic from valley families |
| Wedding-venue marketplace fees and open-house tours | $8,000 | About 30 tours |
| Bridal and corporate showcases | $4,000 | Face-to-face introductions |
| Email and text list, seasonal events | $4,500 | Citrus-bloom and harvest dates, repeat visits |
| School district outreach and trip guides | $2,500 | About 3,200 students |
| Local partnerships (hotels, tourism offices, florists) | $4,000 | Referrals |
| Photography and content | $4,000 | Fresh images each season |
| Community events and press | $4,000 | Name recognition |
Milestones
- January 2027: opens to the public, first school groups.
- August 2027: events coordinator starts; conversion finished in September.
- October 2027: hall opens, first two weddings.
- December 2027: 5 weddings and 12 other events delivered, and the 2028 calendar part booked.
Running the Farm Season by Season
Winter and spring: October to April
The farm is open Friday to Sunday for visitors, weekdays for school groups, and the hall is booked most weekends. Two seasonal crew join the farm manager, the events coordinator and the cook for gate, parking, the stand, field-trip guiding and clean-up. Wedding days add contract servers and set-up staff, paid through event direct costs.
Summer: May to September
The public gate closes. The farm manager and, from August 2028, an assistant grower run irrigation, prune and replant beds and repair the site. The stand opens for early-morning hours, and the events coordinator sells next season's dates. The cook is off payroll from June to August.
Land and buildings
About 20 acres on a 15-year ground lease at $3,500 a month ($42,000 in 2027), rising 3% a year. The rent includes the right to hold public days and events, and the lease is with the landowner family, so counsel reviews it as a related-party contract. The $170,000 conversion of the existing barn (fire sprinklers, power and a kitchen shell) and $130,000 for restrooms, septic, fire access, accessible paths, shade and parking are paid by Ridge Spring and depreciated over 15 years. Utilities include irrigation water.
Equipment and systems
A used tractor, two utility vehicles, picking bins and irrigation repairs cost $42,000. The stand, the commercial kitchen and ticketing hardware cost $38,000. Ticketing, booking and accounting software costs $9,000 in 2027 and $14,000 by Year 5.
Insurance and safety
Public liability, property, farm vehicle and event coverage are budgeted at $26,000 in 2027, rising to $34,000 by Year 5. Workers' compensation is inside the payroll on-cost. A written safety plan covers tractors on public days, heat, ladders and animals, and the plan sets a cap of 300 people on site at once. A food-safety plan covers the stand, café and dinners. Farm-class workers' compensation rates can be high, so the carrier's quote may change the on-cost.
Staffing
Six people at the end of 2027 (Naomi, the farm manager, the events coordinator, the cook and two seasonal crew) and seven from 2028 once the assistant grower starts. Each hire follows bookings. The downside case shows which hires are delayed if revenue falls short.
People and Ownership
Naomi Castellano, founder and general manager
Naomi spent nine years in events at a Scottsdale resort and ran as many as 140 events a year in her last role. She grew up around her family's citrus. Her $160,000 is her savings and she takes $65,000 in salary, below what she earned as an events manager.
The farm manager
A grower with more than a decade on valley citrus and vegetable farms runs the grove, the beds and the crew at $60,000. The plan adds an assistant in the second summer so the farm does not rely on one person in July.
Where the team is thin
Naomi has not run a farm and the farm manager has not run public days. The events coordinator, who comes from a venue, covers weddings. A food-safety consultant reviews the stand and dinner menu before opening, and an outside accountant reviews the numbers quarterly.
Owners and the bank
The landowner family and the two local investors are passive owners, and Naomi manages. The bank takes her personal guarantee, a limited guarantee from the landowner family, a lien on the equipment and the improvements, and quarterly accounts. The loan is interest-only for 24 months, so the first two years of interest ($70,000) come out of the reserve, and the bank's cover test begins in Year 3. A bank might prefer a smaller loan and more equity, and the structure above is the one the plan was built on.
The Numbers Behind Ridge Spring
The forecast covers five years: month by month for 2027, then one figure per year. Funding comes first, then the operating figures behind each revenue line, then the statements.
Converting the barn and paying for the first summer
| Use of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Convert the existing equipment barn into an event hall (fire sprinklers, power, kitchen shell) | $170,000 |
| Restrooms and septic, fire access, accessible paths, shade and parking | $130,000 |
| Farm stand, commercial kitchen and ticketing equipment | $38,000 |
| Used tractor, utility vehicles, picking bins and irrigation repairs | $42,000 |
| County plan review, use permit, food permits and fire inspection | $24,000 |
| Architect and engineer drawings; legal for the ground lease, entity and waivers | $48,000 |
| Launch: website, ticketing, signage and wedding-venue listings | $24,000 |
| Cash reserve for the first summer closure | $420,000 |
| Total uses | $896,000 |
| Source of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Naomi Castellano's savings | $160,000 |
| Equity from the landowner family | $180,000 |
| Two local investors | $206,000 |
| Bank term loan | $350,000 |
| Total sources | $896,000 |
Naomi Castellano puts in $160,000 of savings (18% of the $896,000 total). The landowner family adds $180,000 (20%) and two local investors $206,000 (23%). The remaining $350,000 (39%) is a ten-year bank loan at 10%, interest-only for the first 24 months, with the first two years of interest ($70,000) paid from the reserve. The rate is a planning figure, not a quote. The bank takes a personal guarantee from Naomi and a limited guarantee from the landowner family, a lien on the equipment and a waiver from the landowner over the improvements. The $420,000 reserve is 47% of the raise. The farm earns almost nothing from May to September, the first year loses $310,298 once start-up costs are counted, and the second loses a further $102,887.
Operating figures behind the forecast
- Day visits: 7,460 paying visitors in 2027 at a blended $18 (adults $20, children $14, a U-pick bag included). March is the busiest month at 1,500 visitors, and June to August together bring 160. Year 3 uses about 13,200 visitors at roughly $18.50. The plan caps the grounds at 300 people at once.
- Field trips: 3,200 students in 2027 at $14 a head, about 55 bus loads, running January to April and October to December. Year 3 uses about 5,900 students at roughly $15.
- Events: the converted hall opens in October 2027. Until then, small groups use shaded areas of the grove. 2027 books 5 weddings at an $8,500 venue fee (hall, grounds, tables and chairs, ceremony set-up; caterer, bar and rentals are the couple's own) and 12 private or corporate events at $3,000. Year 2 books 16 weddings and 28 other events, Year 3 books 26 and 42, and Year 5 books 32 and 48. Prices rise 3% a year. The plan holds one wedding per day and uses about 80 of the 90 or so Friday-to-Sunday dates between October and April by Year 5.
- Farm stand and café: $6 per day visitor or student in 2027, about $6.50 in Year 3. Direct costs are 42% of sales (bought-in baked goods and drinks, packaging and the farm's own produce at cost). Stock is held at 2% of sales and suppliers are paid in 10 days.
- Farm dinners: 8 in 2027 for 56 guests at $105, all between October and April, on a 50% direct cost that covers food, drink and contract servers. A cook is on payroll from September. Year 3 uses about 15 dinners for 58 guests at roughly $111.
- Direct costs are 8% of day-visit revenue and 7% of field-trip revenue (card fees, picking bags, packaging, fuel), 20% of event revenue (4 to 6 contract set-up and clean-up staff, linens, card fees) and 42% to 50% for the stand and dinners. Together they come to 21.7% of 2027 revenue.
- Customers pay quickly. Weddings take a deposit at booking and the balance 30 days before the date, tickets are paid online, and schools pay on invoice, so receivables average 12 days. The model has no line for deposits held before an event, so its cash is cautious by the size of the deposits on hand.
- Payroll adds 27% to wages for payroll taxes, health coverage, Arizona workers' compensation and paid sick time, and 18% for the seasonal crew, who have no health coverage. Farm class codes can carry higher workers' compensation rates, so the carrier's quote may change this. The $34,000 seasonal rate equals about $16.35 an hour full time, against Arizona's $15.15 minimum wage for 2026, which adjusts each January. Wages are launch rates; 3% annual pay raises are charged as a separate line from Year 2.
- Rent is $3,500 a month for about 20 acres under a 15-year ground lease with two five-year options, rising 3% a year. The price covers the right to hold public days and events, which farmland rent alone does not, and the lease is with the landowner family who are also investors, so counsel reviews it as a related-party contract. The 20 acres are 12 of mature citrus, 5 of vegetable and flower beds and 3 for the hall and parking. Utilities include irrigation water. The hall and site works are depreciated over 15 years, matching the lease, and equipment over 7.
- Tax is charged at the 21% federal corporate rate and the 4.9% Arizona corporate rate on the state's 2026 worksheet, with losses carried forward, so tax is due only in Year 5. An LLC taxed as a partnership would move the tax to the owners' returns, and the rates may change.
- Owner distributions of $40,000 in Year 4 and $80,000 in Year 5 are paid by ownership share, and only once cash and the loan cover test allow.
Revenue by line of business
| Revenue stream | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day visits and U-pick | $134,280 | $185,000 | $245,000 | $270,000 | $290,000 |
| School and group field trips | $44,800 | $68,000 | $88,000 | $96,000 | $104,000 |
| Wedding and private event rentals | $78,500 | $227,000 | $368,000 | $429,000 | $468,000 |
| Farm stand and café | $63,960 | $105,000 | $125,000 | $140,000 | $152,000 |
| Farm dinners and classes | $47,040 | $70,000 | $97,000 | $111,000 | $124,000 |
| Total revenue | $368,580 | $655,000 | $923,000 | $1,046,000 | $1,138,000 |
| Growth on prior year | – | 78% | 41% | 13% | 9% |
Events grow from 21% of 2027 revenue to 41% by Year 5, because a wedding earns about $8,500 for one day of use and the hall is open for only three months of 2027. Day visits fall from 36% of revenue to 25% over the same years, but they bring the people who spend at the stand and book dinners. Growth of 78% in Year 2 reflects a first year in which the hall was open for one quarter. It slows to 9% by Year 5, when the cooler-month weekends are close to full.
Month by month in 2027
| Month | Day visits and U-pick | School and group field trips | Wedding and private event rentals | Farm stand and café | Farm dinners and classes | Total revenue | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2027 | $16,200 | $4,200 | $0 | $7,200 | $5,880 | $33,480 | ($10,157) |
| Feb 2027 | $23,400 | $8,400 | $0 | $11,400 | $5,880 | $49,080 | $2,058 |
| Mar 2027 | $27,000 | $11,200 | $3,000 | $13,800 | $5,880 | $60,880 | $11,298 |
| Apr 2027 | $16,200 | $5,600 | $3,000 | $7,800 | $5,880 | $38,480 | ($6,242) |
| May 2027 | $4,500 | $0 | $0 | $1,500 | $0 | $6,000 | ($31,676) |
| Jun 2027 | $1,080 | $0 | $0 | $360 | $0 | $1,440 | ($35,246) |
| Jul 2027 | $720 | $0 | $0 | $240 | $0 | $960 | ($35,622) |
| Aug 2027 | $1,080 | $0 | $0 | $360 | $0 | $1,440 | ($35,246) |
| Sep 2027 | $2,700 | $0 | $0 | $900 | $0 | $3,600 | ($33,555) |
| Oct 2027 | $12,600 | $6,300 | $26,000 | $6,900 | $5,880 | $57,680 | $8,793 |
| Nov 2027 | $16,200 | $7,000 | $26,000 | $8,400 | $11,760 | $69,360 | $17,939 |
| Dec 2027 | $12,600 | $2,100 | $20,500 | $5,100 | $5,880 | $46,180 | ($213) |
Almost all of the year's revenue lands in seven months. Visitors and field trips peak in February and March, and weddings start in October. EBITDA is positive in February, March, October and November and negative in the other eight months. May to September lose $171,345 between them, since the crew, the lease and the insurance run on while the public stays away. The lowest month-end cash balance of 2027 is Oct, at about $202,000 after allowing for the 12 days customers take to pay. Because the engine spreads Years 2 to 5 evenly, summer 2028 is worked out separately below.
Crew and payroll
| Role | Annual wage | Starts | Year 1 end | Year 2 end | Year 3 end | Year 4 end | Year 5 end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Founder and general manager | $65,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Farm manager (grower) | $60,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Events coordinator | $50,000 | Month 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Seasonal guest and field crew (October to April, 2 people) | $34,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kitchen and café lead (September to May) | $46,000 | Month 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Assistant grower | $40,000 | Month 20 | – | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Total payroll incl. on-costs | $251,488 | $334,038 | $363,672 | $363,672 | $363,672 |
Naomi and the farm manager are on payroll from January 2027. The events coordinator joins in month 8 (August 2027), ahead of the hall opening, and a cook joins in month 9 for September to May, then each year. A seasonal crew of two works October to April and covers the gate, parking, stand and field-trip guiding; the table shows that row as 1 because it counts roles, not heads. The assistant grower joins in month 20 (August 2028) so the vegetable beds and second citrus block are not left to one person through the summer. Day-of wedding staff are contract workers paid through event direct costs. Naomi's $65,000 salary is already in the costs. Headcount at year end is six in 2027 and seven from 2028.
Profit and loss
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $368,580 | $655,000 | $923,000 | $1,046,000 | $1,138,000 |
| Direct costs (card fees, event crew, stand and kitchen food) | ($79,962) | ($142,099) | ($200,240) | ($226,924) | ($246,883) |
| Gross profit | $288,618 | $512,901 | $722,760 | $819,076 | $891,117 |
| Payroll incl. on-costs | ($251,488) | ($334,038) | ($363,672) | ($363,672) | ($363,672) |
| Rent | ($42,000) | ($43,300) | ($44,600) | ($45,900) | ($47,300) |
| Utilities | ($22,000) | ($23,500) | ($25,000) | ($26,500) | ($28,000) |
| Marketing | ($40,000) | ($42,000) | ($44,000) | ($46,000) | ($48,000) |
| Insurance | ($26,000) | ($28,000) | ($30,000) | ($32,000) | ($34,000) |
| Professional fees | ($7,000) | ($6,500) | ($7,000) | ($7,500) | ($8,000) |
| Software subscriptions | ($9,000) | ($10,500) | ($12,000) | ($13,000) | ($14,000) |
| Repairs, fuel and grove supplies | ($28,000) | ($30,000) | ($32,000) | ($34,000) | ($36,000) |
| Permits, licenses and inspections | ($3,500) | ($4,000) | ($4,500) | ($4,500) | ($5,000) |
| Equipment replacement | $0 | ($8,000) | ($10,000) | ($12,000) | ($12,000) |
| Bad debt allowance | ($1,500) | ($2,500) | ($3,500) | ($4,000) | ($4,300) |
| Phones, supplies and sundries | ($6,000) | ($7,000) | ($8,000) | ($8,500) | ($9,000) |
| Annual pay raises (3% a year) | $0 | ($10,021) | ($22,148) | ($33,722) | ($45,644) |
| EBITDA | ($147,870) | ($36,458) | $116,340 | $187,782 | $236,201 |
| Depreciation | ($31,429) | ($31,429) | ($31,429) | ($31,429) | ($31,429) |
| Interest | ($35,000) | ($35,000) | ($33,646) | ($30,496) | ($27,015) |
| Income tax | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($9,375) |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($214,298) | ($102,887) | $51,266 | $125,858 | $168,382 |
| Start-up costs expensed at opening (legal, licensing, launch marketing) | ($96,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($310,298) | ($102,887) | $51,266 | $125,858 | $168,382 |
Year 1 loses $214,298 before start-up costs and $310,298 after them. Year 2 loses $102,887 with the hall in its first full season. Year 3 is the first profit, $51,266 or a 5.6% net margin, and profit grows to $125,858 in Year 4 and $168,382 in Year 5. Payroll, including pay raises, takes 68% of revenue in Year 1 and 42% in Year 3. Income tax is due only in Year 5 ($9,375), since losses carry forward.
Cash movements
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | ($296,168) | ($84,901) | $70,116 | $151,514 | $195,493 |
| Barn, site works and equipment | ($380,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Funding received | $896,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Loan principal repaid | $0 | $0 | ($30,086) | ($33,236) | ($36,716) |
| Owner distributions | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($40,000) | ($80,000) |
| Net change in cash | $219,832 | ($84,901) | $40,031 | $78,278 | $78,776 |
| Closing cash | $219,832 | $134,931 | $174,961 | $253,239 | $332,015 |
Closing cash is positive at every year end and lowest at $134,931 in Year 2. Year-end figures hide the summer, so the plan adds a check outside the engine. Rebuilding Year 2 and Year 3 month by month, with revenue in the 2027 shape and interest paid, puts the lowest balance in September at roughly $103,000 in 2028 and $93,000 in 2029. These are approximations to within about $10,000. Distributions start in Year 4.
Balance sheet
| At year end | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $219,832 | $134,931 | $174,961 | $253,239 | $332,015 |
| Accounts receivable | $12,118 | $21,534 | $30,345 | $34,389 | $37,414 |
| Stand and café stock | $7,372 | $13,100 | $18,460 | $20,920 | $22,760 |
| Barn, site works and equipment (net) | $348,571 | $317,143 | $285,714 | $254,286 | $222,857 |
| Total assets | $587,892 | $486,708 | $509,481 | $562,833 | $615,046 |
| Accounts payable (suppliers) | $2,191 | $3,893 | $5,486 | $6,217 | $6,764 |
| Bank term loan | $350,000 | $350,000 | $319,914 | $286,678 | $249,962 |
| Paid-in capital | $546,000 | $546,000 | $546,000 | $546,000 | $546,000 |
| Retained earnings | ($310,298) | ($413,185) | ($361,920) | ($276,062) | ($187,680) |
| Total liabilities and equity | $587,892 | $486,708 | $509,481 | $562,833 | $615,046 |
Margins and break-even
| Measure | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin | -40.1% | -5.6% | 12.6% | 17.9% | 20.8% |
| Net margin (before start-up costs) | -58.1% | -15.7% | 5.6% | 12.0% | 14.8% |
| Payroll incl. pay raises as share of revenue | 68% | 53% | 42% | 38% | 36% |
| Revenue per full-time equivalent at year end | $61,430 | $93,571 | $131,857 | $149,429 | $162,571 |
| Average monthly revenue | $30,715 | $54,583 | $76,917 | $87,167 | $94,833 |
| Monthly revenue needed to cover operating costs | $46,451 | $58,463 | $64,536 | $67,183 | $69,697 |
| Debt service cover (EBITDA / interest + principal) | -4.2x | -1.0x | 1.8x | 2.9x | 3.7x |
The last two rows of the ratios table show the gap. Average monthly revenue is $30,715 in Year 1 against $46,451 needed to cover operating costs, and $54,583 against $58,463 in Year 2, so both years lose money. Year 3 clears the line at $76,917 against $64,536. Debt service cover is negative in Years 1 and 2, where interest is paid from the reserve and the bank's test begins in Year 3, and it reads 1.8x in Year 3, 2.9x in Year 4 and 3.7x in Year 5.
A season of 20% fewer guests and bookings
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $294,864 | $524,000 | $738,400 | $836,800 | $910,400 |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($219,909) | ($125,655) | ($27,851) | $25,919 | $65,440 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($315,909) | ($125,655) | ($27,851) | $25,919 | $65,440 |
| Closing cash | $217,681 | $112,700 | $76,130 | $95,624 | $152,322 |
This case cuts every revenue line by 20% in every year. The response: the assistant grower starts six months later, the seasonal crew drops from two people to one, marketing is cut by 20%, Naomi takes a 20% pay cut, equipment replacement is halved, grove and repair spend falls by 15%, and no distributions are paid. On those terms cash stays positive at every year end, never below $76,130, and the farm is profitable from Year 4. The same rough month-by-month check puts the lowest September balance at about $32,000 in Year 3 and $25,000 in Year 4, so the reserve is working hard. Year 1 equity is $230,091. The leaner crew would leave the farm thin on busy weekends, and a second year of slow bookings would call for outside funding.
Sources
- National Weather Service Phoenix, July 2021 climate data, which lists the 1991 to 2020 normal July high of 106.5 degrees Fahrenheit.
- USDA Economic Research Service, Charts of Note, December 5, 2024: $1.26 billion of agritourism income in 2022, up 12.4% from 2017 after adjusting for inflation.
- Industrial Commission of Arizona, 2026 minimum wage increase: $15.15 an hour from January 1, 2026, adjusted each January.
- Arizona Department of Revenue, 2026 estimated tax worksheet for corporations and pass-through entities: lists the 4.9% C corporation rate. Rates may change.
- The 21% federal corporate rate is a planning figure; confirm with IRS publications and an accountant.
- Zoning, food-permit, liquor and workers' compensation rules are not quoted. Confirm with the county planning department, Maricopa County Environmental Services, the Arizona Department of Liquor Licenses and Control and an insurance carrier.
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