Looking for a frozen yogurt shop business plan? You're in the right place.
A self-serve shop in Manhattan stands or falls on one number before any other: the rent. A landlord, a bank and any investor will each ask how much you need to open, what you pay for the space, and what happens if the foot traffic is thinner than you hoped. A blank template won't show you what a believable answer looks like.
In this article we'll walk through a complete sample plan for a pay-by-weight frozen yogurt shop near NYU in Manhattan, section by section, so you can see how the numbers fit together and write your own. We'll cover the executive summary, the SWOT and, in particular, all of the financials.
Here's what you'll take away:
- The executive summary: see how to put a small-footprint shop on one page, including the lease, the raise and the Year 1 loss, so a reader sees what is being asked at a glance
- The SWOT: learn how to name the rent and the winter honestly without putting a lender off
- The opening budget: find out what a Manhattan build-out, a rent deposit and three months of carrying costs add up to before the first cup is sold
- The first year, month by month: spot the quarter that earns nothing and the summer that carries the year, and plan cash around both
- The marketing plan: see what a shop with no ad budget to speak of spends to reach students, tourists and office groups
- Rent, labor and break-even: understand how three costs decide whether a shop this size makes money
- The downside case: have an answer ready for the "what if the block runs a fifth quieter?" question, along with the steps the owner takes
If you're opening a self-serve shop in a high-rent city, read this before you write your own. The business is fictional, so take what fits your shop and change the rest.
In this plan
Looking for a frozen yogurt shop business plan template? The Toolkit builds yours with your own numbers.
Executive Summary
Jimmy's Fro-Yo is a self-serve frozen yogurt shop that opens on April 1, 2027 in about 650 square feet of ground-floor retail on a side street near New York University in Manhattan. Customers pour their own cups from a wall of dispensers, add toppings from a bar, and pay by weight at a scale. Founder Jim Black owns the shop with two minority investors, in a limited liability company.
The shop needs $405,000: $175,000 of Jim's savings, $110,000 from two private investors and a $120,000 bank term loan. Of that, $217,000 is build-out and equipment, $15,500 is a landlord deposit, $46,000 is spent on legal work, permits, crew training and launch marketing and expensed at opening, $7,000 is opening stock, and $119,500 is held as a cash reserve for the fit-out, the winter and a slow first summer.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $577,265 | $816,308 | $884,014 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($58,087) | $49,649 | $69,667 |
| Closing cash | $139,464 | $199,082 | $247,708 |
Year 1 holds nine trading months. January to March is the fit-out: the lease is rent-free, costs run and nothing is sold. Year 1 loses $12,087 before the one-off opening costs and $58,087 after them. The shop earns EBITDA from its first trading month and profits from Year 2. The Year 3 net margin is 7.9%, and it rises to 9.9% by Year 5.
The plan tests itself. If revenue runs 20% below plan, part-time hours fall by a quarter, marketing is cut, Jim takes a pay cut, and card and delivery fees fall with sales. The shop still earns a profit in every year from Year 2, $35,107 in Year 3, and stays cash-positive at every year end.
What the shop sells is narrow: a self-serve cup priced by weight, open until 11 p.m. on weeknights and 1 a.m. on Fridays and Saturdays, in a pocket where students, office workers and visitors walk past after dinner.
The Shop and the Lease
Legal name: Jimmy's Fro-Yo, LLC, a New York limited liability company. Owners: Jim Black, majority; two private investors, minority. Premises: about 650 square feet of ground-floor retail near NYU, second-generation space with existing plumbing and a restroom. Opening: April 1, 2027, after a three-month fit-out that starts when the lease is signed. The schedule is optimistic for New York City, where fit-outs can run longer than three months. The plan includes no landlord work allowance; the 10% build-out contingency is the only cover for overruns. Stage: lease terms in draft, build-out drawings commissioned, equipment quotes not yet signed.
The lease
The lease runs ten years from January 1, 2027. Three months are free while the space is built out, and rent then rises 3% a year. The planning figure is $62,000 a year, which covers base rent and the tenant's share of taxes and charges. Scheduled rent over the ten years comes to about $695,000 after the free months. That is the number a personal guarantee points at, so it gets its own paragraph in the people section.
The figure is a planning number set before a lease quote. It is not a Manhattan market comparable. A broker's figures for a unit of this size should replace it before the lease is signed. Every $10 a square foot moves annual profit by $6,500 before tax. If the unit cost $150 a square foot, annual rent would be about $97,500; Year 3 pre-tax profit would fall to about $58,000, and the break-even cushion to about 10%.
What the shop is for
Give people who are out in the evening a cold, quick, self-serve dessert at a price they set with their own hand.
Targets for the first two years
- Open on April 1, 2027 and cover operating costs from the first trading month.
- $816,308 of revenue in 2028, with a profit after tax.
- Hold payroll at the opening roster and absorb growth with the same crew.
- Repay the bank loan on schedule and begin owner distributions in 2029.
How the shop earns
| Revenue line | How it is priced | Year 1 share of revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Self-serve cups by weight | $0.87 an ounce, 11.4 ounces on average | 79% |
| Take-home pints | Flat $12.60 | 7% |
| Drinks and packaged add-ons | About $4.10 each | 6% |
| Delivery-app orders | About $15.00 an order | 6% |
| Group and office orders | $11.50 a head, 36 people | 2% to 3% |
Permits and food safety
A food shop in New York City needs a health permit and must pass inspection before it opens. The plan carries $6,000 for plan review, permits and local licenses as a planning figure. The food-safety certificate staff must hold, the exact filings and their timing should be confirmed with the New York City health department and a licensed expediter before the lease is signed. A shop that sells by weight also needs scales that meet weights-and-measures rules; confirm the requirement with the city's consumer protection department. The shop sells no alcohol.
Who Walks Past: Frozen Dessert Demand in Manhattan
A crowded block, a changing crowd
Manhattan puts several dessert options within a few minutes' walk of any university block: other self-serve shops, scoop shops, bubble tea, bakeries and grocery freezer aisles. The plan does not claim an open gap. It claims a particular time, after 8 p.m., and a particular format, self-serve by weight, that lets a small crew serve a queue without a counter line.
What the numbers depend on
Three inputs decide the plan. The first is traffic past the door in the evening and at weekends. The second is the weight of the cup, because cup revenue is ounces times price. The third is rent. Foot traffic is not counted in this plan. A lender would reasonably ask for a hand count at the shop's hours before the lease is signed, and the plan treats that count as a condition of signing.
Where demand comes from
Students supply the winter base. Visitors and office workers lift late spring and summer. No published statistic for either group is cited. The seasonal pattern in the model is the plan's own and is tested in the downside case.
Who a customer could use instead
| Alternative | What it offers | Why a customer picks it | How Jimmy's differs by design |
|---|---|---|---|
| National self-serve frozen yogurt chains | Wall of flavors, toppings, pay by weight | Familiar format and loyalty programs | The shop's plan: one owner on the floor, a small shop, hours that run later |
| Independent scoop shops | Ice cream and gelato by the scoop | Craft reputation, richer product | Self-serve, so no line at a counter and the customer sets the portion |
| Bubble tea and drink shops | Cold drinks and desserts | Drink-led, seats and Wi-Fi | A lighter, lower-priced dessert with no wait for a made order |
| Grocery and convenience pints | Packaged ice cream | Lowest price | A fresh cup with chosen toppings |
| Bakeries and dessert cafes | Sweets and coffee | Sit-down, daytime traffic | Open late and built for a quick stop |
The table describes what each alternative offers and how this shop positions itself, not a ranking. Prices and locations change often and are not quoted here.
SWOT
| Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|
| Self-serve format lets a small crew serve a rush | Rent is fixed at about 7% of Year 3 revenue, and the planning figure needs a broker's quote |
| Late hours that suit a campus block | Three months of cost with no sales before opening |
| Direct costs are 29% of revenue | Winter and exam breaks cut volume sharply |
| Opportunities | Threats |
|---|---|
| Group and office orders add volume without seats | A larger chain taking a neighboring unit |
| Delivery listings widen the radius at low cost | Dairy and topping costs rising faster than prices |
| A second shop once one is proven | A landlord or minimum-wage change raising the cost base |
Students, Tourists and Late-Night Walkers
The student, 18 to 24
Walks past on the way to or from class, buys on impulse, comes with friends and pays by card. Heavy in the school year and near absent over the winter break and the summer, when the neighborhood empties of students. That is why the summer peak rests on visitors and office workers, and why it is the least proven number in the plan.
The visitor
Out for the evening, in a group, and buys a larger cup because there is no hurry. Strongest from late spring through August. Visitors rarely come back, so each one has to be won on the first visit.
The office worker and the neighbor
Buys after work, takes a pint home, or orders delivery. The office worker is also the source of group orders: team events and birthdays at flat per-head packages.
What each of them wants
A fast stop, a cup that costs what they expected, a clean wall and no queue.
How the Cup Gets Sold
The checkout
A cup is weighed at a scale beside the wall and paid for by card. The self-checkout scale takes payment unattended at peaks, with a crew member nearby. The average cup in Year 1 is 11.4 ounces and $9.92. By Year 3 the ounce price is $0.92 and the cup $10.52, after two 3% steps.
Volume the shop needs
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cups sold | about 46,100 | 62,500 | 65,500 | 68,500 |
| Cups a day on average | about 168 | 171 | 179 | 188 |
Year 1's daily figure is over the nine trading months; later years are cups divided by 365. Summer days run above the annual average and midwinter days below it. Both are modeled figures, not counts.
Selling more without more seats
Pints, drinks and group orders sell to the same customers. Pints go home with office workers. Group orders come from a campus club, a student event or an office team of about 36 people at $11.50 a head, who take cups and a share of the topping bar.
Delivery
Delivery-app orders are about 6% of Year 1 revenue. The shop pays a commission of 24% of delivery sales, a planning rate that depends on each platform's terms.
Marketing: Lighting Up One Block
The budget and what it buys
Year 1 marketing is $32,000: $18,000 of launch spend paid from start-up capital and $14,000 of operating spend across the year. That is about 5.5% of Year 1 revenue, and it falls to about 2.3% by Year 3 at $20,000 a year. Across about 46,100 Year 1 cups the cost is about 69 cents a cup. That measures spend against sales, not the cost of winning a new customer.
| Channel | Year 1 spend | What it is expected to do |
|---|---|---|
| Exterior sign and window graphics (launch) | $8,000 | A visible, lit front that does the selling after dark |
| Campus introductions and sampling days (launch) | $6,000 | First visits from student clubs, residence halls and societies |
| Listings photography and map and delivery setup (launch) | $2,000 | A correct, current listing on maps and delivery apps |
| Opening-week local advertising (launch) | $2,000 | Awareness among the immediate blocks |
| Social media and local search | $5,500 | Short video of the wall and toppings; map-listing posts |
| Campus partnerships and club offers | $3,000 | Group orders and repeat student visits |
| Delivery-app promotions | $2,500 | New-customer offers on the delivery listing |
| Events and group-order outreach | $3,000 | Office and campus-event bookings |
Marketing milestones
- April 1, 2027: doors open, map and delivery listings live.
- June 2027: first month above $70,000 of revenue, expected at $74,574.
- September 2027: student return and first campus-club group orders.
- December 2027: $52,572 of monthly revenue through the holiday slow period.
Inside the Shop and Its Day
The space
About 650 square feet: a customer floor with the dispenser wall, topping bar and scale, a small back room for cold storage and dry stock, a counter and a restroom. Seating is a few stools and a ledge. The shop is built to move people through, not to keep them.
A day's work
The shop opens at 1 p.m. and closes at 11 p.m. Sunday to Thursday and at 1 a.m. Friday and Saturday: 74 hours a week. Two people are on the floor at every open hour, a cashier and a cleaner, with a third at the evening and weekend peaks. Early shifts wash and restock the wall, check the topping bar and weigh the first cups. Closers clean the machines and mop. Dispenser cleaning follows the manufacturer's schedule and the health code.
Equipment
Three dispensing machines with twelve handles, a topping bar with cold wells, scales and self-checkout, a display freezer, a back-room freezer, a point of sale and seating. Dispensers, build-out and fixtures cost $217,000 and are depreciated over six to ten years. The plan adds a service contract and repairs budget of $5,500 in Year 1 and $9,200 in Year 3, and builds $5,500 a year of smallwares replacement by Year 3.
Suppliers
A dairy and mix distributor and a topping distributor supply the shop. Neither is hard to replace, and the shop holds about three weeks of stock because cups, lids and dry toppings are bought by the case. Direct costs, including cups and packaging, are about 29% of revenue.
Technology
A point-of-sale system with card processing, self-checkout scales and delivery-app tablets. Software costs $5,500 in Year 1.
Insurance and safeguards
General liability, product liability and property cover are budgeted at $11,500 in Year 1. Workers' compensation is carried in the payroll on-costs and should be quoted by a broker alongside the rest. Health cover is not in the on-cost rates and is not priced here; for the two full-time roles together, every $5,000 a year costs about six-tenths of a point of Year 3 margin. The shop keeps written cleaning logs, labels allergens at the toppings bar and tracks dairy and nut allergens on a documented routine.
Jim Black and the Crew
Jim Black, owner-operator
Jim has worked in hospitality as a waiter and a hotel manager and has run front-of-house teams. He has not run a retail unit of his own or signed a ten-year lease. His $175,000 is his savings. He is paid $68,000, works the floor about 50 hours a week and covers the open and close schedule with the shift manager.
The shift manager
The shift manager starts in month 3, trains the crew and covers about 45 hours a week at a $54,000 salary. That salary is probably below the New York City threshold for an exempt manager, which the state publishes each year, so the role is treated as non-exempt, and the five hours a week above 40 are priced as overtime: about $13,600 a year in Year 3 with on-costs. A payroll provider should confirm the classification. If Jim is out, the shift manager runs the shop; there is no assistant manager in the plan.
The crew
Four part-time roles start in month 4 and two seasonal roles cover summer. Crew are paid $19.00 an hour. The roster stays the same through Year 5, while cups rise about 5% and revenue about 11%, mostly through price, from Year 3 to Year 5. That is the plan's most optimistic cost line, and it is part of why the margin widens after Year 3.
Where the team is thin
Neither Jim nor the shift manager has built a campus partnership program from nothing. The plan covers that with a fixed weekly outreach schedule and one named student ambassador paid in free cups and referral credit. An outside bookkeeper and a payroll provider, paid from the professional-fees line, handle the books.
The lease and the personal guarantee
A landlord of a ten-year Manhattan retail lease will normally ask for a personal guarantee. Scheduled rent of about $695,000 is about four times Jim's $175,000 of savings, so an unlimited guarantee is the exposure that matters most. The plan's approach is to seek terms before signing, and a lawyer experienced in New York retail leases should confirm what is possible: a cap on the guarantee, a "good guy" guarantee that ends when the tenant gives notice and hands back the keys, one that falls away after a set number of years of on-time payments, a larger cash deposit in place of a guarantee, an early-termination right if sales fall below a stated level, and the right to assign or sublet. None of these is certain. The plan states the exposure and the options and does not count on any of them.
Ownership and the bank
Jim holds the majority of Jimmy's Fro-Yo, LLC. Two investors hold a minority stake, and their terms are for counsel to set. The bank loan carries a covenant to deliver quarterly accounts.
Manhattan cup economics, year by year
Every table in this section comes from one five-year model: monthly for 2027, annual after that. The lease starts January 1, but the shop does not open until April 1, so the first quarter carries cost and no sales.
Opening costs and the funding stack
| Use of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Build-out of a second-generation 650 sq ft retail space: plans and filings, floors, walls, lighting, plumbing, restroom and 10% contingency | $125,000 |
| Self-serve wall (three dispensing machines), topping bar, cold wells, scales, display and back-room freezers | $66,000 |
| Point of sale, self-checkout scales, menu screens, seating and smallwares | $26,000 |
| Opening stock: yogurt mix, toppings, cups, spoons, lids | $7,000 |
| Legal and accounting: lease and guarantee review, entity, loan documents | $14,000 |
| Health permit, plan review and local permits (planning figure) | $6,000 |
| Two weeks of paid crew training and soft-opening shifts | $8,000 |
| Launch: exterior sign and window graphics, campus introductions, sampling days, listings photography | $18,000 |
| Landlord security deposit (three months of rent, held until the lease ends) | $15,500 |
| Cash reserve for the three fit-out months, the winter and a slow first summer | $119,500 |
| Total uses | $405,000 |
| Source of funds | Amount |
|---|---|
| Jim Black's savings | $175,000 |
| Two private investors (minority equity) | $110,000 |
| Bank term loan (SBA-guaranteed loan sought, subject to approval) | $120,000 |
| Total sources | $405,000 |
Jim Black puts in $175,000 of savings and two private investors put in $110,000 for a minority share. Equity totals $285,000, or 70% of the $405,000 raised. A bank term loan of $120,000 covers the rest: seven years, interest-only for six months, at a planning rate of 10.5%. An SBA-guaranteed loan would be sought; approval is not certain, and the lender sets the rate, term and collateral. Build-out and equipment take $217,000 of the total. The $15,500 landlord deposit sits in the bank balance but cannot be spent until the lease ends. The model's lowest point, corrected for the rent spread described in the monthly note, falls in April 2027, and usable cash there is about $30,000 after the deposit and receivables. From March, carrying cost is about $17,300 a month with no sales: Jim's pay with on-costs (about $7,200), the shift manager (about $5,700), utilities and insurance (about $2,300), software and professional fees (about $1,000), and loan interest (about $1,050). Rent is free in those months. Usable cash covers about 1.7 months at that rate. If the delay runs past the free-rent period, rent of about $5,200 a month is added and cover falls to about 1.3 months, so a slip beyond the free-rent period would need a bridge from the investors or the bank.
Price, volume and cost inputs
- Self-serve cups are sold by weight at $0.87 an ounce in Year 1. The average cup is 11.4 ounces, or $9.92. The price rises 3% a year from Year 2, so the cup is $10.52 by Year 3. These are the plan's own prices, not a quoted market rate.
- Year 1 sells about 46,100 cups over nine trading months, about 168 a day. Year 2 sells 62,500 (about 171 a day), Year 3 sells 65,500 (about 179 a day) and Year 5 sells 68,500 (about 188). Summer runs above the annual average and midwinter below it. That seasonal pattern is the plan's own and is modeled rather than counted. Years 2 to 5 are annual totals: the winter pattern is not carried into them, and at the Year 1 pattern January and February would fall below operating break-even.
- Take-home pints sell at a flat $12.60 in Year 1, about 3,000 pints. Drinks and packaged add-ons attach to 18% of cups at $4.10. Group and office orders run four a month in Year 1, each for 36 people at a flat $11.50 a head. Delivery-app orders average $15.00.
- Direct costs are 28% of cup sales, 34% of pints, 35% of drinks, 32% of group orders and 34% of delivery orders, including cups, spoons and lids. That is 29.3% of revenue in every year. Customer spillage sits inside the cup figure.
- Payroll carries 27% on top of salaried pay and 22% on top of part-time pay for payroll taxes, workers' compensation and paid leave. These are planning rates for a New York payroll provider to confirm. Crew are paid $19.00 an hour, and pay rises 3% a year from Year 2. Shift manager overtime is modeled as its own line.
- Rent is a planning figure, not a quote: $62,000 a year for about 650 square feet of ground-floor retail, covering base rent and the tenant's share of taxes and charges. Three months are free while the space is built out, so Year 1 rent is $46,500, followed by 3% steps ($63,860 in Year 2, $65,780 in Year 3). Every $10 a square foot moves annual profit by $6,500 before tax. No Manhattan rent comparable is cited; a broker's comparables for a unit this size should replace the figure before the lease is signed.
- Utilities are $16,500 in Year 1, mostly electricity for dispensers and freezers. Insurance is $11,500 for general liability, product liability and property cover; workers' compensation sits in the payroll on-costs. Card processing runs at about 2.7% of sales. Delivery-app commissions are 24% of delivery sales, a planning rate because platform terms differ.
- Receivables take two days, the card-settlement lag. Suppliers are paid in about ten days. Stock is $7,000 at opening and about $10,400 at the end of Year 1, roughly three weeks of direct cost, because cups, lids and dry toppings are bought by the case.
- Tax is modeled at 21% federal and 8% for New York State and New York City, which combine to about 27% after the federal deduction. The real treatment depends on how the company is organized, so a CPA should confirm it.
- Owner distributions are $30,000 in Year 3, $80,000 in Year 4 and $130,000 in Year 5, paid from cash the shop holds beyond its operating needs. Over Years 3 to 5 they total $240,000, against $253,666 of net income in those years. Investors share them by ownership, and their terms are for counsel to set.
Revenue by stream
| Revenue stream | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Self-serve cups by weight (yogurt and toppings) | $457,666 | $638,471 | $689,191 | $731,542 | $764,652 |
| Take-home pints | $38,374 | $55,805 | $61,490 | $66,088 | $69,489 |
| Drinks and packaged add-ons | $34,054 | $47,509 | $51,283 | $54,434 | $56,898 |
| Group and office orders | $14,638 | $23,538 | $26,353 | $28,229 | $29,635 |
| Delivery-app orders | $32,533 | $50,985 | $55,697 | $59,007 | $61,622 |
| Total revenue | $577,265 | $816,308 | $884,014 | $939,300 | $982,296 |
| Growth on prior year | – | 41% | 8% | 6% | 5% |
Cups by weight are 79% of Year 1 revenue and 78% of Year 3. Pints are about 7%, drinks 6%, delivery 6% and group orders 2% to 3%. Year 2 grows 41% on Year 1 because Year 1 holds nine trading months and a ramp from 78% of steady volume. Year 3 grows 8%, the pace the model gives once the shop has settled in.
Year one, month by month
| Month | Self-serve cups by weight (yogurt and toppings) | Take-home pints | Drinks and packaged add-ons | Group and office orders | Delivery-app orders | Total revenue | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2027 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($31,913) |
| Feb 2027 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($31,913) |
| Mar 2027 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($31,913) |
| Apr 2027 | $37,530 | $3,147 | $2,793 | $1,272 | $2,668 | $47,410 | $1,629 |
| May 2027 | $47,646 | $3,995 | $3,545 | $1,491 | $3,387 | $60,064 | $10,582 |
| Jun 2027 | $59,250 | $4,968 | $4,409 | $1,735 | $4,212 | $74,574 | $20,847 |
| Jul 2027 | $66,391 | $5,567 | $4,940 | $1,895 | $4,720 | $83,513 | $27,171 |
| Aug 2027 | $64,527 | $5,410 | $4,801 | $1,889 | $4,586 | $81,213 | $25,544 |
| Sep 2027 | $53,180 | $4,459 | $3,957 | $1,716 | $3,780 | $67,092 | $15,554 |
| Oct 2027 | $48,112 | $4,034 | $3,580 | $1,631 | $3,420 | $60,777 | $11,086 |
| Nov 2027 | $39,503 | $3,312 | $2,939 | $1,488 | $2,808 | $50,050 | $3,497 |
| Dec 2027 | $41,527 | $3,482 | $3,090 | $1,521 | $2,952 | $52,572 | $5,281 |
Nothing sells in January, February or March. The model spreads each Year 1 operating cost evenly across twelve months, so each fit-out month shows an EBITDA loss of $31,913. Card fees, delivery commissions and crew pay start only at opening, so the fit-out months are overstated. Rent is spread the same way, so January to March carry about $11,600 of rent the free-rent months do not charge, and April to December carry about $11,600 less than the lease will charge. The spread also moves cost out of the months after opening, so those months may be shown too lightly. April opens at $47,410 of revenue and $1,629 of EBITDA, and is the lowest trading month. July is the high at $83,513 of revenue and $27,171 of EBITDA. November is next lowest at $50,050, and December closes at $52,572. On the model's figures, month-end cash is lowest in March 2027, at about $36,100 including the deposit. Corrected for rent, the low point is April at about $47,000. A monthly cash plan built on the actual lease and payroll dates should replace this spread before the lease is signed.
Crew and coverage
| Role | Annual wage | Starts | Year 1 end | Year 2 end | Year 3 end | Year 4 end | Year 5 end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owner-operator and general manager (Jim Black) | $68,000 | Month 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Shift manager | $54,000 | Month 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Evening cashier A (part time, 25 hours a week) | $24,700 | Month 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Evening cashier B (part time, 25 hours a week) | $24,700 | Month 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Closing floor and cleaning attendant (part time, 25 hours a week) | $24,700 | Month 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Weekend cashier (part time, 16 hours a week) | $15,800 | Month 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Summer and weekend peak attendant A (seasonal, May to September) | $10,500 | Month 5 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Summer and weekend peak attendant B (seasonal, June to August) | $8,000 | Month 6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total payroll incl. on-costs | $233,546 | $272,396 | $272,396 | $272,396 | $272,396 |
Jim is on the payroll from month 1 and works the floor about 50 hours a week. The shift manager starts in month 3, trains the crew and covers about 45 hours. Four part-time roles start in month 4: two evening cashiers and a closing floor and cleaning attendant at 25 hours a week each, and a weekend cashier at 16. Two seasonal attendants cover the summer peak, one from May to September and one from June to August. Together they keep two people on the floor at every open hour, from 1 p.m. to 11 p.m. Sunday to Thursday and to 1 a.m. Friday and Saturday, with a third at the evening and weekend peaks. The shift manager's $54,000 is probably below the New York City threshold for an exempt salaried manager at 45 hours a week, which the state publishes each year, so the model treats the role as non-exempt. Five hours a week above 40 are paid as overtime, about $10,700 in Year 1 and $13,600 in Year 3 with on-costs, shown as its own line in the profit and loss; a payroll provider should confirm the classification. Payroll rises only with the 3% pay rises, and the roster does not grow over the five years, because volume is absorbed by the same crew. Year-end headcount excludes the two seasonal roles, but their cost is included in each year's payroll total.
Profit and loss
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $577,265 | $816,308 | $884,014 | $939,300 | $982,296 |
| Direct costs (yogurt mix, toppings, cups and packaging) | ($168,858) | ($238,781) | ($258,586) | ($274,758) | ($287,335) |
| Gross profit | $408,407 | $577,527 | $625,428 | $664,542 | $694,961 |
| Payroll incl. on-costs | ($233,546) | ($272,395) | ($272,395) | ($272,395) | ($272,395) |
| Rent | ($46,500) | ($63,860) | ($65,780) | ($67,750) | ($69,780) |
| Utilities | ($16,500) | ($17,000) | ($17,500) | ($18,000) | ($18,500) |
| Marketing | ($14,000) | ($20,000) | ($20,000) | ($20,500) | ($21,000) |
| Insurance | ($11,500) | ($12,000) | ($12,400) | ($12,800) | ($13,200) |
| Professional fees | ($6,500) | ($7,000) | ($7,300) | ($7,600) | ($7,900) |
| Software subscriptions | ($5,500) | ($5,800) | ($6,000) | ($6,200) | ($6,400) |
| Card processing fees (about 2.7% of sales) | ($15,586) | ($22,040) | ($23,868) | ($25,361) | ($26,522) |
| Delivery-app commissions (about 24% of delivery sales) | ($7,808) | ($12,236) | ($13,367) | ($14,162) | ($14,789) |
| Dispenser service contract, repairs and deep-cleaning | ($5,500) | ($8,500) | ($9,200) | ($9,800) | ($10,400) |
| Commercial waste carting, cleaning supplies and uniforms | ($6,000) | ($8,000) | ($8,400) | ($8,700) | ($9,000) |
| Permits, music licensing and renewals | ($1,500) | ($2,000) | ($2,100) | ($2,200) | ($2,300) |
| Smallwares and equipment replacement | ($1,500) | ($4,500) | ($5,500) | ($7,000) | ($8,000) |
| Bad debt on group invoices | ($300) | ($700) | ($800) | ($800) | ($900) |
| Shift manager overtime (five hours a week above 40, with on-costs) | ($10,714) | ($13,243) | ($13,640) | ($14,049) | ($14,471) |
| Annual pay raises (3% a year) | $0 | ($8,172) | ($16,589) | ($25,258) | ($34,188) |
| EBITDA | $25,453 | $100,080 | $130,588 | $151,966 | $165,215 |
| Depreciation | ($25,083) | ($25,083) | ($25,083) | ($25,083) | ($25,083) |
| Interest | ($12,457) | ($11,229) | ($9,651) | ($7,898) | ($5,953) |
| Income tax | $0 | ($14,119) | ($26,187) | ($32,507) | ($36,658) |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($12,087) | $49,649 | $69,667 | $86,478 | $97,521 |
| Start-up costs expensed at opening (legal, permits, training, launch marketing) | ($46,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($58,087) | $49,649 | $69,667 | $86,478 | $97,521 |
Year 1 loses $12,087 before start-up costs and $58,087 after the $46,000 of opening costs. EBITDA is $25,453, a 4.4% margin. Year 2 nets $49,649 (6.1%), Year 3 $69,667 (7.9%), Year 4 $86,478 (9.2%) and Year 5 $97,521 (9.9%). Payroll with pay rises is 33% of Year 3 revenue, or 34% with overtime, and rent is 7.4%. A revenue shortfall of about 16% in Year 3 would take pre-tax profit to zero, which is the break-even test below.
Cash position and distributions
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | ($41,918) | $73,940 | $94,526 | $111,378 | $122,462 |
| Dispensers, build-out and fixtures | ($217,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Funding received | $405,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Loan principal repaid | ($6,618) | ($14,321) | ($15,900) | ($17,652) | ($19,597) |
| Owner distributions | $0 | $0 | ($30,000) | ($80,000) | ($130,000) |
| Net change in cash | $139,464 | $59,618 | $48,626 | $13,726 | ($27,135) |
| Closing cash | $139,464 | $199,082 | $247,708 | $261,434 | $234,299 |
Closing cash is $139,464 at the end of Year 1, $199,082 in Year 2 and $247,708 in Year 3, including the $15,500 deposit throughout. Owner distributions start in Year 3 at $30,000, then $80,000 and $130,000. Over Years 3 to 5 they total $240,000, below the $253,666 of net income in those years, but Year 5 distributions exceed that year's net income of $97,521. Cash still reaches $234,299 by Year 5, with $45,911 of the loan outstanding. About $66,000 would replace the dispensers once, when the machines reach the end of their life. The rest is surplus that the owners could distribute or use to prepay the loan. Interest falls as the loan is repaid. Without the loan, the spring low point would be negative, so the loan funds the fit-out and opening months. A prepayment from Year 3 surplus would cut the interest further; the model does not show one.
Balance sheet at each year end
| At year end | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $139,464 | $199,082 | $247,708 | $261,434 | $234,299 |
| Accounts receivable | $3,163 | $4,473 | $4,844 | $5,147 | $5,382 |
| Yogurt mix, toppings and packaging stock | $10,377 | $11,776 | $12,172 | $12,495 | $12,747 |
| Dispensers, build-out and fixtures (net) | $191,917 | $166,833 | $141,750 | $116,667 | $91,583 |
| Total assets | $344,921 | $382,164 | $406,474 | $395,743 | $344,012 |
| Supplier payables (dairy and topping distributors) | $4,626 | $6,542 | $7,085 | $7,528 | $7,872 |
| Bank term loan | $113,382 | $99,060 | $83,160 | $65,509 | $45,911 |
| Paid-in capital | $285,000 | $285,000 | $285,000 | $285,000 | $285,000 |
| Retained earnings | ($58,087) | ($8,438) | $31,229 | $37,707 | $5,228 |
| Total liabilities and equity | $344,921 | $382,164 | $406,474 | $395,743 | $344,012 |
Rent, labor and the break-even line
| Measure | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin | 4.4% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| Net margin (before start-up costs) | -2.1% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.9% |
| Payroll incl. pay raises as share of revenue | 40% | 34% | 33% | 32% | 31% |
| Revenue per full-time equivalent at year end | $144,316 | $204,077 | $221,004 | $234,825 | $245,574 |
| Average monthly revenue | $48,105 | $68,026 | $73,668 | $78,275 | $81,858 |
| Monthly revenue needed to cover operating costs | $45,107 | $56,237 | $58,286 | $60,375 | $62,398 |
| Debt service cover (EBITDA / interest + principal) | 1.3x | 3.9x | 5.1x | 5.9x | 6.5x |
Year 3 needs about $58,300 a month of revenue to cover operating costs and averages $73,700, a cushion of about 21%. After depreciation and interest, pre-tax break-even sits about 16% below plan. In Year 1 the shop needs $45,100 a month, and its nine trading months average about $64,100. Revenue per full-time equivalent is $221,004 in Year 3, with part-timers counted at half. Debt service cover is 5.1x in Year 3. The plan does not quote sales per square foot, because a sourced Manhattan benchmark would be needed to judge it.
If the block runs a fifth quieter
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $461,812 | $653,046 | $707,211 | $751,440 | $785,837 |
| Net income before start-up costs | ($45,098) | $10,083 | $35,107 | $38,709 | $47,153 |
| Net income after start-up costs | ($91,098) | $10,083 | $35,107 | $38,709 | $47,153 |
| Closing cash | $106,835 | $127,046 | $171,157 | $177,151 | $169,677 |
Every revenue line is 20% lower in every year. The owners respond in this order: part-time hours fall by a quarter through shorter weekday afternoons and fewer peak shifts, marketing is cut 20%, Jim takes a 20% pay cut, utilities fall 4%, card and delivery fees follow sales, and smallwares spending is halved. Distributions are held back in Year 3 and cut to $40,000 in Year 4 and $60,000 in Year 5. On those terms the shop is profitable in every year from Year 2, though Year 2 is thin at $10,083. Profit is $35,107 in Year 3 (5.0% of revenue), $38,709 in Year 4 and $47,153 in Year 5. Year 1 loses $91,098 after start-up costs, and Year 1 EBITDA is a loss of $7,558, so the reserve pays all $19,075 of loan payments due that year. Year-end cash stays positive and never falls below $106,835. The lowest month-end balance in Year 1 is about $46,200 in April 2027. Cash is lower than the base case at every year end, by about $33,000 in Year 1 and $65,000 in Year 5. From January to May the downside holds $4,000 to $12,000 more cash than the base each month. Jim's pay cut and the marketing cut land in the fit-out months. About $2,300 a month of the early gap is a spread effect: the 25% part-time cut is applied to annual pay, which the model spreads across the fit-out months, although those crew start in month 4.
Sources
- New York State Department of Labor, Minimum wage: the page sets out the New York City minimum by year. Confirm the rate in force on the opening date on that page.
- Rent, build-out, wage on-costs, card fees and delivery commission rates in the plan are the plan's own planning figures and were not drawn from a published source. A broker, an architect, a payroll provider and the lender would replace them.
- New York City health department permit and plan-review requirements: the plan states them generally and recommends confirming them directly with the department before the lease is signed.
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